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Monday, February 28, 2005

A huge success

In case you were wondering, the European Arrest Warrant has been a huge success. How do we know? Well, the Commissar for Freedom, Justice and Security (there’s an Orwellian title if you like), Franco Frattini has said so:

“Despite some initial delays, the EAW is now operational in most of the cases planned and its impact is positive, in terms of depoliticisation, efficiency, and speed in the procedure for surrendering people who are sought for questioning in the Member States, while fundamental rights are respected throughout. This overall success should not blind us to the fact that some Member States still need to make an effort to come into line with the Framework Decision.”
In other words extradition of people charged or merely suspected of various offences (remember that list of 32?) has also become a matter of administrative management, just as legislation and regulation. What price freedom, justice or security?

A Commission press release informs us gladly but sternly:
“The effectiveness of the EAW can be gauged provisionally from the 2 603 warrants issued, the 653 persons arrested and the 104 persons surrendered up to September 2004. The surrender of nationals, a major innovation in the Framework Decision, is now a fact, though most Member States have chosen to apply the condition that in the case of their nationals the sentence should be executed on their territory.”
Well, how can you argue with that? It seems, however, that certain rather naughty member states have been displaying non-communautaire traits. Shame on them.
“According to the Commission report, further efforts are still required in Italy, where the matter is still before Parliament, and in certain Member States to come fully into line with the Framework Decision (in particular, for reasons specific to each country, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Slovenia and the United Kingdom).”
So ten out of twenty-five are not falling completely into line and seem to think that protecting (however feebly) their citizens’ basic rights is a little more important than pushing forward the integration agenda. Let us see what these recalcitrant regimes have done:
“Three Member States (Czech Republic, Luxembourg and Slovenia) have unilaterally restricted the application of the EAW in time, contrary to the Framework Decision. Requests for extradition that they are still presenting in some cases are therefore now likely to be rejected by the other Member States.

Two Member States (Czech Republic and the Netherlands) require a modulation of penalties to align them on those of their own system before they can be imposed on their own nationals, which effectively reinstates the double criminality rule. Others have introduced grounds for refusal contrary to the Framework Decision (Denmark, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal and the United Kingdom), such as the threat of political discrimination, national security considerations or review of the substance of the case.”
Clearly there is some way to go before the entire extradition system together with any residual notion of double criminality are abolished. The Commission is not so quietly confident that those aims will be achieved very soon.

Denmark names the day

Traditionally one of the most Eurosceptic members of the EU, Denmark is to hold a referendum on the proposed EU constitution on 27 September.

This announcement follows in the wake of the recent announcement by the Dutch government that it will hold its referendum on 1 June and, with France expected to hold its poll in May or June, the pace of ratifications is hotting up.

As with other treaties, the EU constitution is supported by the political élites of Denmark, with four-fifths of the Danish parliament in favour. On the basis of a Eurobarometer poll published in December, voters are also in favour. Forty-four percent say "yes" compared with 26 percent "noes" while the "undecided" are at 30 percent.

Despite this, ratification in Denmark is by no means assured as Danish voters are singularly independently-minded. They ignored their élites and voted down the Maastricht Treaty in 1992 and then blocked the government’s move to join the euro in 2000.

As well he might, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Denmark's freshly re-elected prime minister, yesterday expressed confidence that the long lead-in to the new referendum augured well for success. "We will have quite a long time for a full debate and for a public information campaign," he said.

According to The Financial Times, Rasmussen appears to have decided to hold the referendum this autumn in an attempt to seek the approval of the constitution before opponents in Denmark gather momentum, which could increase as the debate in the UK becomes more heated.

The treaty's opponents include the anti-immigrant Danish People's party and the Red Green Alliance, a group that unites environmentalists and former communists.

Pia Kjaersgaard, the Danish People's party leader, yesterday criticised the new treaty as "an elitist project" aimed at creating a "United States of Europe". "I'm convinced that the Danish people do not want to be part of an EU state," she said.

Ole Krarup, a member of the European parliament for the People's Movement against the EU, said the constitutional treaty was "the final step to a militarised EU superstate aiming to control Denmark down to the tiniest detail".

The Danes may well agree.

Euroscepticism knows no frontiers

The last place you might expect to find the former director of New Europe (the cross-party campaign against UK membership of the euro) is in the pages of The Independent.

But, bold as brass, there is Janet Bush in today’s edition with a piece headed: “Worried you don't understand the rules of the Euro game? You'd be more worried if you did”.

Her thesis is that the constitution enshrines into law two areas of EU governance which have been completely discredited but the most notable feature of her article is her introduction

In this, she reminds us that, at the start of The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, the people of Earth loudly complain when they find out that the planet is about to be destroyed to make way for an intergalactic highway. They are given short shrift by the commander of the Vogon constructor fleet, who points out that the plans have been available for 50 earth years in the planning department of Alpha Centauri.

Replace the intergalactic highway with the new European constitution, Bush writes, and the commander with Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, the former French president who led the convention that drafted it, and you have a flavour of the black hole between the peoples of planet Europe and the political elite that has drawn up a blueprint for our future.

This piece just goes to prove that it isn't only this Blog which resorts to space analogies to describe the EU. Although we do prefer Star Trek’s Borg, Vogons and intergalactic highways will do just as well. Broad minded and imaginative, us Eurosceptics – a bunch of people who know no frontiers.

And what did the article say? Er… haven't a clue, but we have provided an intergalactic link.

Politics and Hollywood

This is not going to be another posting about the Hollywood fruitcakes making political statements that probably contributed heavily to Bush’s victory.

Though I can’t resist this one. I found out yesterday from the Sunday Telegraph Review section that Graydon Carter, editor of Vanity Fair and, therefore, host of the most prestigious Oscar night party in Hollywood, wrote last year a 340 page diatribe against George W. Bush, entitled in a catchy sort of way, What We’ve Lost How the Bush Administration has Curtailed Freedoms, Ravaged the Environment and Damaged America and the World.

Oh my. I wonder how many votes the title alone delivered to the Republicans? Coming as it did from the editor of a ridiculous, glossy, mind-numbing publication like Vanity Fair? No wonder the more serious and consistent Democrats are in despair.

However, I was really going to talk about the Oscars. (Not the frocks as I haven’t seen them yet, though I am told Halle Berry, who got the Raspberry Award looked good and sounded quite funny. Deliberately so.)

One of the films up for various prizes was the reasonably highly rated Hotel Rwanda that deals with a real story of one hotel keeper, himself a Hutu, married to a Tutsi, who ended up using his well-honed skills saving Tutsis and some Hutus from the murderous militias.

The film received nothing, even though it was dealing with a worthy political issue, something, one assumes Hollywood rather likes.

It was then pointed out to me that the film was just a little too political and not in the accepted way either. It is, for instance, very anti-UN. Although it portrays individual UN officers on the ground in a good light, the organization is shown up to be bureaucratic, inefficient and, above all, self-serving.

There is, I believe, one scene when the anxious refugees watch the UN officer go over to talk to the delegation that has just flown in to tell him what they intend to do. The officer listens with mounting anger, then throws his blue beret to the ground. The UN has decided to do nothing about the refugees or those who are still on the run from the militias. It will spend all its resources on evacuating its personnel.

But an even more important scene (after all, one could argue that every organization should look after its people, though one could also ask what those people were doing there in the first place) is when the UN, after much deliberation, decides that what is happening in Rwanda is not genocide.

That means that the UN is not duty-bound to do anything about it. Now, where have we heard this recently?

After a great deal of deliberation and many expensive missions sent in by the UN, the EU, various NGOs, old uncle Tom Cobbleigh and all, the UN has decided that the situation in Darfur does not amount to genocide. So, nothing needs to be done.

Oh I am sorry. Something has been done. Vast amounts of money has been sent to Sudan and Darfur, in particular. The EU sent a very large amount last year and has already allocated new sums this year. Have we had a single account on all those millions of euros? Do we know what happened to the money sent in by the UN? Did it help the people of Darfur (or anyone else in Sudan)?

Was it gobbled up by the Sudanese government (something of a contradiction in terms but I believe it exists technically and is, indeed, represented on the UN Human Rights Commission)? How much of it has been waylaid by the militias for arms?

In ten years’ time there will be another film, this time about Sudan. I don’t suppose that will get an Oscar either. The Hollywood politicos will go along with many things (most of them extremely stupid) but not with criticism of the UN.

Are we fools led by liars?

Following Saturday’s report in Die Welt, which had the German Europe minister Hans Martin Bury describing the EU constitution as a "birth certificate" for a United States of Europe, in today’s Times William Rees-Mogg asks who’s got it right? The German minister for Europe or the foreign secretary of the United Kingdom, Jack Straw?

A translation of the Die Welt article can be seen here.

In his piece, headed: "Are we fools led by liars?", Rees-Mogg compares Bury's statement to the Bundestag with Straw’s claim that the constitution treaty signalled "thus far and no further on European integration" and asks: "Is the treaty a boundary marker for European integration or is it a birth certificate for 'a single European state bound by one European constitution', to use the language of the German Foreign Minister, Joschka Fischer?"

He then undertakes a detailed examination of the key parts of the constitution, leaving his readers in no doubt that he goes with the Bury/Fischer axis, then observing that he sometimes thinks "that Britain has a government which takes us all for fools."

"There may be a case for a United States of Europe," he writes:

Many continental Europeans believe in that; most Germans, for instance, see a single European state as a natural development, similar to the creation of a united Germany in the 1870s. Britain, as Franz-Josef Strauss used to say, should have the status in a United Europe which Bavaria has in the Federal Republic. Bavaria, he would add, does not feel any need for a separate air force. Some Germans differ. One recently commented to me: "What is the problem for which the European Union is the solution?"
On these issues, Rees-Mogg thinks we "could have a useful debate" – as do we all. Is it Europe's destiny to become a superstate? Is the age of British independence at an end? Can we protect democracy and the rule of law in a fully united Europe?

And therein lies the problem. Although that would be an honest and historic debate, we cannot have it so long as the government pretends that the European constitution is anything other than a constitution for the United States of Europe. The Germans are telling the truth, avers Rees-Mogg, concluding: "So long as our government takes us for fools, we have every reason to take them for liars."

Nice sentiments, and we would not disagree with them. But Moggy must know that if the government came clean, it would lose the referendum. Thus, despite calls for a debate, the government does not want one; despite deploring our "ignorance on Europe", they do not want an informed population. Instead, they will rely on their mixture of half-truths and lies, repeating them continuously in the hope that enough people will believe them to make the difference.

They are in effect, hoping that most of us are fools and for the rest, when we call our own government liars, they hope that no one will believe us. For the record though, liars they are. Whether we (most of us) are fools remains to be seen.

The birth certificate for a new Europe

Below is the translation of the key excerpts of the Die Welt article which we reviewed on Saturday. It is headed: The birth certificate for a new Europe", with the strap line: "German Bundestag gives go ahead for the acceptance of the EU constitution". It was written by Hans-Jürgen Leersch and published on 25 February 2005.

Berlin – After a surprising turn around of the CSU in the agreement over the new European constitution, nothing stands in the way of a quick acceptance of the constitutional agreement by the Bundestag and the Bundesrat, which should happen before the summer break. For the acceptance a two-thirds majority is need in the Bundestag and the Bundesrat.

The foreign minister Joschka Fischer (of the Green party) demanded in the debate a "clear, quick and right decision with as large a majority as possible". He described the EU constitution as a "major building stone for Europe". Eurpe minister Hans Martin Bury (SPD) called the constitution the "birth certificate of a new United States of Europe", which would make the Union more manageable. Fischer and other speakers of the coalition rejected the demands of CDU and CSU for more rights of the Bundestag for having a voice in the decision making of the EU policy, because the government would be bound too much by them. The SPD member Michael Roth spoke of "political games" by the opposition.

The Union Parties issued, through the initiative of the CSU, an own law draft, which demands a voice in the decision making of the EU especially in the growth of the EU. With this the Union wants a handle against the red-green coalition request membership of Turkey into the EU. Further the Union demands that already a minority receives the right to claim against the principle of subsidiarity by the Brussels commission; even if a two-thirds majority of the Bundestag and Bundesrat is required when new concessions vs. Brussels are given.

Union faction deputy leader Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU) said, that nobody wants to hinder the powers of the government, but the discussion of EU issues in the national parliaments will strengthen European decision-making. "Everything else will go wrong", warned the CDU politician. Schäuble also answered to the freedom of travel and the EU stability pact: "If you want to have open borders you should not be cavalier with the issuance of visas". Further he said that the government was lax in the use of the EU stability pact.

Critical commentary came only from the CSU Europe specialist Gerd Muller. "The increasing resignation of the public in the face of laws emanating from Brussels is a result of the irrelevance of the German Parliament in questions of European legislation." Neither in discussions about the Stability Pact nor in discussions on the matter of Turkey joining the European Union has the German Bundestag had a voice, Muller criticised. He stood for a strengthening of the Bundestag. "The ever-decreasing participation in elections to the European Parliament shows that the European Parliament cannot be a substitute for national parliaments."

The Baden-Württembergische minister president Erwin Teufel (CDU) declared the constitution draft as milestone in the development of Europe. The FDP foreign politician Werner Hoyer stated that the government had not informed citizens of the meaning of the EU constitution. A referendum had been demanded at an earlier stage from the CSU leadership, but the party had now distanced itself from this request, as well as the demand that the rights of the Bundestag in the EU had to be strengthened. Also now it seems that the opposition within the Bundesrat against the EU constitution had dropped.
There you have it: the German parliament has effectively decided for the EU constitution, while the government stands accused of not informing citizens of its meaning.

My thanks to Daniel Law and others for the translation.

They eat domestic solipeds, don’t they?

Eurospeak for "horses", just in case you were wondering, and from today it becomes law of the land that every horse should be the proud owner of a passport, courtesy of our government-over-the-water in Brussels.

To mark this occasion, the Daily Telegraph runs a piece in today’s edition, pointing out the penalty for disobeying the diktats of our masters, with the headline: "Horse owners face jail over passports".

I suppose, to be fair, it should be the horses that are jailed, but there you go. It is, according to the Telegraph, the "thousands of horse, pony and donkey owners" who "face fines or even jail from today because they have failed to obtain passports for their animals." With the passage of the new law, it seems only about 500,000 of an estimated total of a million equines have been registered.

The reason for this delicious piece of nonsense – to use an unfortunate phrase – is that the EU wants to keep track of medication administered to horses in case they subsequently end up in the food chain, in pursuit of which end owner have to apply for passports for their animals on pain of a maximum fine of £5,000 or jail in the case of repeat offenders.

Although relatively modest in price, costing between £20 and £30, owners also have to pay a veterinary surgeon or other qualified person to fill in a silhouette identifying the markings of their animal – fingerprints being of limited value - pushing the bill to £70 or more.

And so unpopular is the scheme that the government has already extended its deadline twice: it was first due to come into force in January last year, before being put back to June 30. However, with only a small proportion of equines covered by that date, the deadline was extended again to today.

According to the Telegraph, critics of the scheme say, with that the government should have derogated from the EU law, as previous administrations had done, on the grounds that few British horses - about 7,000 a year - enter the food chain.

But the egregious Alun Michael, minister for rural affairs, has warned that his masters in Brussels will exact a terrible revenge if they are not obeyed. They are threatening to withdraw approval for around 60 per cent of UK veterinary medicines if the EU commission is "unhappy" with the level of compliance.

Trying to steer a course between irate horse owners – to day nothing of the donkey owners – and those in Brussels who must be obeyed, the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) is saying that enforcement will be carried out in "a common sense and gradual way". To begin with, only owners presenting their horses for export, attending shows or requiring medicines for their animals would be required to show a passport.

This is a classic Defra tactic, which has nothing to do with "common sense". It will wait until the immediate publicity has died down and then pick on a few individuals, pour encourages les autres. By this means, it will gradually tighten its grip on the whole equine-owning community until all but a hardy few have complied.

Thus are our masters in Brussels to be assuaged - and all because they eat domestic solipeds.

They're at it again

More specifically, she's at it again, the fragrant Margot Wallström – a never-ending source of entertainment.

According to the Sunday Times yesterday, the commissioner for truth and reconciliation wants to set up a volunteer corps for doing “European good”, suggesting that a “youth wing” could help in emergencies such as environmental disasters.

"Only by bringing young Europeans together," she says, could the "concept of creating a European citizenship" work in the long term.

At least Wallström is up-front about the proposal, but then so was Adonnino in his pursuit of a European driving license and other devices, all to encourage "the people of Europe" to feel a sense of common identity

The fact that we already have a pretty good system in the VSO for voluntary workers seems to have escaped Wallström. She wants to reinvent it on a European level.

This is so much like these "little Europeans". Wrapped up in their own little world, they see everything through the filter of their own narrow, claustrophobic ambitions, and cannot see the bigger picture – nor indeed what objects of derision they have become.

Sunday, February 27, 2005

Booker

Only three stories in this week's Booker column, the marketing department having filled the space usually occupied by the “four” with an additional advertisement. One sometimes thinks they would be happier if the editorial content could be cut out completely.

Anyhow, Booker's first story illustrates what a terrible mess successive governments have made trying to introduce metric measurements on the sly, and how this is now rebounding on home secretary Charles Clarke's plan to lock people up under house arrest without the benefit of a trial.

The problem stems from the government’s choice in 1995 to impose the latest round of compulsory metrication, implementing Community Directive 89/617/EEC, through a series of statutory instruments rather than a full-blow Act of Parliament which would have required a full-blown debate and a vote, which the government may well have lost.

What the government had overlooked at the time was that the 1985 Weights and Measures Act which permitted the continued selling of goods in pounds and ounces.

When "metric martyr" Steve Thoburn was found guilty of the criminal offence of selling bananas by the pound, it was argued on appeal that the 1985 Act effectively repealed part of the European Communities Act of 1972, under which metric weights and measures were made compulsory, and therefore the regulations under which Thoburn had been prosecuted were invalid.

However, in a landmark case in 2002, Lord Justice Laws ruled that the European Communities Act was a "constitutional statute" and therefore could not be repealed by a subsequent Act, unless it was explicitly the declared intention of Parliament , thus confounding the so-called principle of "implied repeal" where conflicting earlier statues were considered repealed by subsequent Acts.

Since the 1985 made no such intention explicit, the regulations stood and Thoburn’s conviction was upheld.

But now this judgement is rebounding on the government because Clarke’s house arrest provisions drive a coach and horses through Magna Carta, which rules that "no freeman shall be arrested or detained in prison or deprived of his liberty – except by the judgement of his peers".

If Clarke wishes to overrule Magna Carta, according to Lord Justice Laws's ruling, he must make this explicit in his Prevention of Terrorism Bill. Parliament must be given the chance to decide that in this respect it wishes to override Magna Carta.

The delicious thing about this conundrum, however, is that if Clarke refuses to accept the relevance of Laws's judgement, then the whole case against Thoburn collapses and their convictions must be overturned, thus putting the UK in breach of EU law.

But then even if, to avoid such embarrassment, Clarke does ask Parliament explicitly to set aside the relevant section of Magna Carta, he will then be advised that the Great Charter was not an Act of Parliament that can be repealed by a subsequent parliament. It was a contract in perpetuity between the sovereign and the people, which Parliament cannot undo.

Whichever way the Government plays it, Booker writes, in its continuing assault on the constitutional rights of the British people, this time it is stuffed.

For his second story, under the heading, "Parliament votes itself further into the void", Booker weaves two tales rehearsed in this Blog: Patricia Hewitt’s attempt to hijack VE Day and the account of how ineffective is Parliamentary scrutiny of EU law. Notes Booker, everything the Government does to sell the "Constitution for Europe" is becoming an embarrassment.

For his final tale, Booker looks at our “take” on the denied boarding story we also put on the Blog, also going for the title "denied safety" regulations to describe this new EU impost.

As an aside, by a remarkable coincidence, also in the same edition of the Sunday Telegraph is a story about how a BA Jumbo Jet was turned back from its journey to New York, halfway across the Atlantic, because US officials claimed one of its passengers was a "positive match with an anti-terrorism watch list".

It is an odd reflection of our times that, as in the Booker story, it is considered perfectly acceptable to fly a Jumbo from Los Angeles to London on three engines, to the point where it almost ran out of fuel and had to make an emergency landing in Manchester, yet it is deemed necessary to turn back a fully serviceable Jumbo because of – as it turned out – unwarranted suspicions about one passenger.

Sometimes, you really could not make it up.

Judicial integration continues

Another momentous decision was taken at this week-end’s meeting of the Justice and Home Affairs Council. (Yes, our own Charles Clarke, the last remaining beard of the Labour movement was there. Experience tells one that he may not have realized what he signed up to, but we shall see.)

The Council has agreed on the terms of the European Evidence Warrant, which will allow police of one member state to seek evidence in another member state. Presumably, at some stage soon, this will apply to Europol, which is in the process of becoming an operational force under the Hague Programme, adopted last year without any special publicity. (In fact, finding the exact text of the Hague Programme is not the easiest thing in the world, though it can be done.)

There was, it seems, some dispute whether the concept of dual criminality should apply to the European Evidence Warrant but, in the end, what is quaintly described as a compromise was adopted.

The compromise said that the 32 items that are listed under the European Arrest Warrant as not needing dual criminality, should be transposed to the forthcoming European Evidence Warrant, either.

To refresh our readers’ memory, I have decided to list them here:

- participation in a criminal organisation,
- terrorism,
- trafficking in human beings,
- sexual exploitation of children and child pornography,
- illicit trafficking in narcotic drugs and psychotropic substances,
- illicit trafficking in weapons, munitions and explosives,
- corruption,
- fraud, including that affecting the financial interests of the European Communities within the meaning of the Convention of 26 July 1995 on the protection of the European Communities' financial interests,
- laundering of the proceeds of crime,
- counterfeiting currency, including of the euro,
- computer-related crime,
- environmental crime, including illicit trafficking in endangered animal species and in endangered plant species and varieties,
- facilitation of unauthorised entry and residence,
- murder, grievous bodily injury,
- illicit trade in human organs and tissue,
- kidnapping, illegal restraint and hostage-taking,
- racism and xenophobia,
- organised or armed robbery,
- illicit trafficking in cultural goods, including antiques and works of art,
- swindling,
- racketeering and extortion,
- counterfeiting and piracy of products,
- forgery of administrative documents and trafficking therein,
- forgery of means of payment,
- illicit trafficking in hormonal substances and other growth promoters,
- illicit trafficking in nuclear or radioactive materials,
- trafficking in stolen vehicles,
- rape,
- arson,
- crimes within the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court,
- unlawful seizure of aircraft/ships,
- sabotage

It does not take much studying of the list to work out that only very few of the listed “offences” have anything to do with terrorism or even cross-border criminality, which is, in any case covered by various inter-governmental agreements.

Nor does it take long to see that several of the so-called offences are so vaguely defined as to be completely meaningless. Sabotage can mean anything and, as we know from the Soviet experience can be used to punish the slightest error at work.

Indeed, if desired, it can be used to punish people who have not fulfilled the plan through no particular fault of their own. Shall we, in future, see trials of those who have “sabotaged the Lisbon agenda”?

And, of course, there is racism and xenophobia. Now, I am not one of those who is afraid of being arrested and tried because I have expressed (ever so mildly) some criticism of the European Union. One way or another I know enough about totalitarian states to understand the difference between them and the European Union.

One does not, however, need to fear totalitarianism to be anxious about so-called offences that are little more than thought crimes, are not crimes in this country and can be used for all sorts of purposes under European Evidence and Arrest Warrants that obey no particular law that one can quite think of.

Who needs the Constitution for Europe? The tanks are going round the Maginot Line again.

When we remember that the Council has also reaffirmed its desire to strengthen the Framework Directive on Racism and Xenophobia and continues to talk about banning certain symbols of nazism (but not, of course, of communism), it is time for everybody to get worried.

It is not just British law that is being undermined here but the whole concept of legality and jurisprudence. Ironically, that idea is one of the great achievements of European culture as it has developed from the early Middle Ages onwards. The European Union, supposedly in existence for the purpose of advancing and strengthening European ideals and European culture, is once again doing the exact opposite: undermining one of the key concepts in its pursuit of integration and centralized control.

Decision time gets closer

Confirmation of our view that selling arms to China does not make economic sense comes in the form of an article in today’s Sunday Times business section, headed: "BAE demands immunity on US sanctions".

Written by Dominic O'Connell, the story records how BAE Systems, Britain's biggest defence group, is pushing the British government to split with Europe and negotiate a special exemption to spare the UK from American sanctions over arms sales to China.

BAE executives and defence officials, we are told, fear Congress will stop the transfer of vital defence know-how if Europe lifts its embargo on arms exports to China – something which is definitely on the cards.

As we have suggested before on this Blog, the running in Washington is being made by Congress, and the ST story identifies "four top legislators" - senators John McCain, Joe Biden, Richard Lugar and Joe Lieberman – who are ready to ban all technology transfers.

The problem for BAE Systems is that it has a huge stake in the US defence industry – the company is America’s sixth-largest defence contractor, with a US turnover of nearly £3 billion. Any freeze on technology transfers would be highly damaging.

Therefore, Mike Turner, BAE's chief executive, is looking for a "carve-out" for his company, a deal that would exempt Britain from any US action. In return, BAE would undertake not export any important UK technology if the EU embargo on arms exports to China was scrapped.

Turner has a few cards in his hand on this, as BAE systems is a partner in the US Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) project, in which the British government has already invested £2 billion. "If we don't get there (the transfer of the required intellectual property) I think Geoff Hoon (the defence secretary) will have to think about our involvement in this programme," Turner says.

All this must be rather awkward for the advocates of EU defence integration in the MoD and elsewhere, as the idea of integrating European defence industries lies at the heart of the heart of defence integration (see here and here.

Not least, Britain is a founder member of the European Defence Agency, while the EU constitution is set to bind Britain into a fully-fledged military alliance.

Britain could now find itself in a position where, politically, it is moving towards greater European integration while its largest arms supplier is moving in exactly the opposite direction. Once more the incoherence of the British position is being shown up, pointing to the need once and for all to make a decision as to which side of the Atlantic our best interests lie.

Big brother cometh…

In the Sunday Times today is a story that has being doing the rounds, this one headed: "Europe wants a black-box speed spy in every car".

According to The Times, "black box recorders" could be installed in all new cars under an EU ruling. The "aircraft-style equipment" would also act as a tracker, using global positioning satellites to record the location and route of a vehicle and to tell how fast a driver is going and whether seatbelts are being worn.

Typically, this is being presented as a safety measures, the Times also reporting that "data recovered from the boxes could give investigators important clues on how accidents are caused". We are told that the EU commission has asked the police forces of member states to look at whether the technology could improve road safety.

Then, if as expected, the police give their backing, manufacturers would be required to install black boxes in all new cars by 2009.

All very nicey-nicey this is, and you can bet the police – or more particularly the "road safety" partnerships – will be highly enthusiastic. As the technology allows speed to be monitored, and is linked with positioning data, the facility will exist to issue speed tickets from information generated by the car electronics, without any external apparatus such as speed cameras.

Furthermore, there have been some suggestions that the system could be linked to in-car computer diagnostic systems which already exist in many cars, to monitor exhaust emissions, with penalty tickets being issued automatically to drivers of cars which fail to meet emission standards – even though they may be unaware of the problem.

Few people are aware of quite how far this technology has already developed, and quite how enthusiastic the regulators are about its applications.

Some indication can be gained from the EU commission site on “Intelligent transport systems”, where ideas such as "electronic fee charging" are rehearsed.

Furthermore, since much of this technology relies on satellite positioning data, this the use of such systems in the regulatory context has the potential to provide a considerable revenue stream, underwriting the EU’s Galileo project, with otherwise is difficult to justify financially (other than through the spin-off in arms sales).

This is not only an EU problem as the National Transportation Safety Board in America is also highly enthusiastic about such systems, all of which goes to show that the bureaucracies of the world have a great deal in common.

Unsurprisingly, British motoring groups fear the technology could be used by government to introduce a national congestion charge or to keep tabs on people’s movements and therein lies the greatest danger.

Give governments power (any governments) and it is only a matter of time before they abuse it. Here technology is creating a worrisome scenario where, in the future, every time you climb in your car, "big brother" will be looking over your shoulder.

The secret is out

The Sunday Telegraph reveals today how British and American conservatives united to stop Bush endorsing the EU constitution as favour to Blair.

According to this source, Bush's speech to European leaders last week was toned down at the last moment to avoid giving his support to the proposed EU constitution, after a strenuous lobbying campaign by conservative activists in Washington.

The Telegraph says that "leading British Eurosceptics" were enlisted to help win a battle within the White House over how far Bush should go in endorsing a more unified EU, after reports began to circulate in Washington that his planned speech would express backing for the constitution.

Members of the staff of Dick Cheney, the vice-president, are also said to have intervened with Mr Bush's speechwriters to ensure the removal of language which, conservatives say, would have given a powerful and explicit boost to campaigners for the EU constitution.

"The speech was being drawn up along State Department lines, with a view to backing the draft constitution," said one Washington official with close White House links. "It was not until last weekend that we were given assurances at the highest level that this would not, after all, be happening."

According to one EU parliament official, who says he was shown an advance draft of Mr Bush's remarks by a "well-connected" American contact, the president was originally going to say: "I know Europe is creating a constitution. We in America value our constitution and so should you."

In the event, at his meeting with EU heads of government in Brussels on Monday, Mr Bush merely declared his backing for what he called Europe's "democratic unity". He said America supported "a strong Europe", but fell short of an explicit endorsement of the constitution. His repeated reference to "Europe" rather than the EU was also seen as a victory by Eurosceptics.

According to The Telegraph, alarm bells rang among conservatives after Condoleezza Rice, the Secretary of State, spoke warmly during her recent trip to Europe of the "growing unity of Europe", including plans for a shared foreign policy and powerful EU foreign minister, and said America had "everything to gain from having a stronger Europe as a partner".

One conservative American policy adviser said: "If a common foreign and security policy had applied during Iraq, it would have meant we had no allies at all in Europe."

Peter Mandelson, the EU's trade commissioner, was said to have been boasting that Mr Bush would endorse the draft constitution - a move likely to strengthen Tony Blair's position in campaigning for a "yes" vote in Britain's referendum.

The Telegraph then gives an account of how a posse of think-tanks, led by the influential Heritage Foundation and other conservative groups began an urgent lobbying of the White House to prevent this. And, although the account is by no means complete, it is certainly true that the weight of lobbying prevailed. Altogether, this was a highly successful coup.

Saturday, February 26, 2005

Cruella is back!!!

[Health warning: this will be an entirely nice and pleasant posting.]

This will also be a short posting. Both the niceness and the shortness are, as our readers know, uncharacteristic.

However, I do want to thank everybody for their support and kind wishes. At the risk of sounding extremely maudlin, I have to admit that I did feel a lump in my throat when I read the various comments. With so many people rooting for me, I feel I cannot possibly let them down.

The first stage of what will be a longish process is now over. The operation went well, Charing Cross Hospital is one of the best in the country (I am very fortunate), the nursing was excellent and the food execrable. So I am very glad to be home.

The next stage will be finding out the result of the biopsy. Whatever that is, there will be a long session of radiotherapy later in the spring.

I intend to carry on working, though there may be times when my colleague (if he manages to keep out of prison) may have to take over again.

What more can I say, except, once again, thank you all.

And that’s enough niceness. Normal service will resume on Monday.

"Geburtsurkunde für neues Europa"

So proclaims the headline in today’s edition of Die Welt, which even my virtually non-existent German can cope with: “Birth certificate for a new Europe”.

As to the rest, fortunately the story is picked up by The Sun, which gives its own headline to the story: "German spells out EU plan".

Writes George Pascoe-Watson, the deputy political editor, "the EU Constitution will create a United States of Europe despite Tony Blair’s denials, Germany’s foreign minister confirmed yesterday."

The story is given more clothes in The Daily Mail (not online) which reports that Hans Martin Bury, Germany's Europe minister, said the constitution was more than just a "milestone", stating: "I think the EU constitution is the birth certificate of the United States of Europe."

This was during a debate in the Bundestag, when he added: "It is not the end point of integration, but the framework for - as it says in the preamble - an ever closer union."

Actually, it does not say that in the preamble – the words were changed very subtly to soothe the fevered brows of British Eurosceptics, whence they became: "The peoples of Europe are determined to transcend their former divisions and, united ever more closely, to forge a common destiny". As the man said, "ever closer union" – in all but name.

Both the Sun and the Mail remark about how this statement flatly contradicts Jack Straw who, on 9 February on the Today programme claimed that the constitution "literally limits the powers of the European Union", adding: "What this does is say 'this far and no further'".

The Bury claim evoked a quote in the Sun from shadow foreign secretary Michael Ancram, who said: "Once again a European politician has told the truth about the EU constitution. Mr Blair is desperate to cover up. The EU Constitution would mean the beginning of the end for British independence."

Bury is, of course, by no means the first EU politician to point out that the process of integration continues. This is precisely what we told the Today programme on 9 February, when we said:

This constitutional treaty is part of an ongoing process – it is just one more step in a project aimed at creating a government of Europe, devised by the political élites, without the informed assent of their peoples. Completion will mean the end of us as a self-governing country. Britain will be relegated to the status of a county council, subordinate to a central government in Brussels.

That is the danger. It we allow this treaty through, there will be another one behind, and another – as many as it takes to get to the destination. Insiders are already saying they want another treaty within a few years…
Also confirming this is Dominic Strauss-Kahn, the former French finance minister, in his document "Building a political Europe" which sets out the next steps for integration.

There can be no doubt about what we are dealing with – a "yes" vote for the constitution is signing a blank cheque for further integration.

The lady is sprung

Helen is about to be released from hospital, having qualified for full remission for good behaviour.

Normal service on the Blog will be resumed shortly.

Microsoft misses a trick

You cannot help but admire Microsoft. According to The Guardian, having been fined by the EU commission a record €497m for “bundling” its media player with its standard Windows operating system, it is now – as instructed – selling the system without the media player.

In the interests of keeping consumers fully informed, it proposed calling the "degraded" version: "Windows reduced media edition". Predictably, since it retails for the same price as the fully functional version, the commission sees this as "as a serious deterrent to consumers" and is throwing a tizzy fit.

The International Herald Tribune cites "a person close to the commission's competition department", saying: "The message effectively tells users that they have bought a duff product." And your point is?

Helpfully, Microsoft has come up with a few other names but none of them find favour with the commission, for want of which it is threatening to impose new fines of 5 percent a day of Microsoft's daily global revenues. With that, relations between the commission and Microsoft have sunk to a new low.

Privately, officials are described as being angry at what are seen as Microsoft's "underhand, prevaricating efforts" to lessen the impact of the sanctions imposed by the EU. The software group, however, insisted: "We are fully committed to implementation of the commission's and the court's decisions."

What surprises though is that Microsoft have not chosen the obvious route and simply labelled the degraded product the "EU version" with a prominent "ring of stars".

As the EU is a by-word for corruption and inefficiency, such a version would readily fit with the EU brand image and happily remind the "citizens of Europe" of the benefits of EU membership.

Les paysans révoltent?

In a country where political corruption is endemic and the élites inhabit a different world, well-lubricated by the ever-suffering taxpayer, this one still takes some beating.

Finance minister, Hervé Gaymard – a protegé of Chirac - presiding over an austerity programme to bring down the state deficit, has been caught with his hands in the till. Pleading poverty when he was appointed to replace Nicolas Sarkozy at the finance ministry last November, he was provided with a spacious £9,700-a-month Paris flat at state expense.

Now, it transpires that he had his own flat in the city, which he has been renting out for £1,700 a month, plus two country homes.

But the ripples of l'affaire Gaymard are spreading outwards, leaving Raffarin's government damaged by conveying an image of personal extravagance with public funds while at the same time lecturing France on the need to cut state spending.

More seriously, according to The Times this morning, this "Let them eat cake" attitude could yet cost Europe its constitution.

From Chirac's admitted use of state cash for his family holidays to the lodgings and limousines enjoyed by hundreds of provincial officials, the regal habits of the Gallic governing elite are under intense scrutiny. Now, Gaymard has triggered a backlash against the monarchical ways of the Fifth Republic.

Insiders believe that French voters, fed up with the profligacy and the disdain with which they are treated, will take the opportunity of the EU referendum "to blow a raspberry" at Chirac and his high-living friends.

According to The Times, a mutinous public spirit was already rampant this winter. Chirac and the "Chamberlain-like" M Raffarin were taken aback in December when the prefects, or provincial governors, joined forces to tell them: "The French no longer believe in anything... They do not believe that it is even worth expressing their point of view or trying to make themselves heard." One of the prime grievances is the cost, and shortage, of housing.

Now, this feeling is coming to a head. Yesterday some MPs in the centre-right Government coalition said that M Gaymard's housing antics, could stoke a voter revolt rather like Queen Marie-Antoinette’s advice to the starving to eat cake.

Once again, it seems, les paysans révoltent.

Friday, February 25, 2005

Another hijack

This week the EU parliament approved plans for a standard EU driving license, aimed at replacing the 110 different permits in use across the EU, with Jacques "Wheel" Barrot, the EU transport commissioner, claiming that this new license, with anti-falsification measures, would help prevent fraud and thus improve road safety

Elsewhere, on its website, the commission claims that the move to a standard licence is governed by two major principles: to facilitate the free movement of the citizens of the Community and contribute to the improvement of road traffic safety.

And therein is yet another big lie. While there is some utility in having mutual recognition of driving licenses throughout the member states, with harmonisation of technical standards (but why stop at the EU?) the specific rationale for having a "EU model" license, emblazoned with its ring of stars, has nothing to do with fraud, road safety or freedom of movement.

The concept of the standard European driving license stems entirely from a report written by Italian MEP Pietro Adonnino, in 1985 for the Milan Council, entitled "A Peoples' Europe".

The whole purpose of the report was to recommend ways of developing a "European identity", to which effect Adonnino came up with a number of ideas.

Perhaps the most significant was that the European Community should have its own flag and its own anthem, "to be played at appropriate events and ceremonies".

He also recommended a "Community passport" to replace national passports and other "concrete measures" to encourage "the people of Europe" to feel a sense of common identity, ranging from a "Europe-wide lottery" to an emergency health card, entitling them to medical assistance in any member state.

To this he added the idea that the Community should take over the long-established practice of "town twinning", dating back to the Second World War, and use it to promote the idea of "European union", and that "European" sports teams should compete in international events, wearing the "ring of stars" rather than national symbols. This would be adopted a few years later by the "European" golf team competing against the USA for the Ryder Cup.

His driving licence proposal was originally scheduled for adoption by 1 January 1986, and while a standard "Community model" driving licence had been set up in an earlier directive (80/1263/EEC), and modified by 91/439/EEC, it has not yet been made compulsory for member states.

Now, all that is to change. Adonnino's recommendation is finally to come to fruition, the primary purpose of which is to promote in the "people of Europe" a sense of common identity.

Thus does the EU take a basically good idea, pervert it, distort it and hijack it for its own political ends.

We have become more powerful V

"And for all of those that say, if you look at the last thirty years, we have lost power to Brussels, actually it isn't true. In the last, certainly in the last eight years, as we, the Labour government, have been more involved in Europe, so we have become more powerful and more prosperous, better able, literally to implement a patriotic case for the European Union."

Jack Straw
Foreign Secretary

BBC Today Programme, 9 February 2005


In this, the fifth example that we have come across of Britain losing power to the EU since Jack Straw made his ludicrous statement, The Daily Telegraph reports on a further blow from the EU to the art market, to add to it troubles caused by the droit de suite directive.

The proximate cause of this woe is that Juliane Kokott, Advocate General at the ECJ has ruled that a higher rate of Value Added Tax must be paid on works of art imported into the United Kingdom for auction, which have originated from outside the EU.

The case had been brought by the EU commission against British government which, currently, was imposing five percent VAT on both the hammer price and the auctioneer's commission, although this was waived if the work of art was immediately exported outside the EU after the sale.

From yesterday's ruling, which has yet to be confirmed, buyers will still pay five percent VAT on the hammer price but will be liable for 17.5 percent VAT on the auctioneer's commission. The latter can add as much as a fifth to the purchase price.

Although this VAT will still be waived if the work of art goes back outside the EU, most lots sold at Britain's three major auction houses - Sotheby's, Christie's and Bonhams - are bought in Europe because of the weakness of the dollar.

At London's major auctions of Impressionist art two weeks ago 88 percent of the lots at Christie's and 72 per cent at Sotheby's were bought by Europeans and many of the paintings, sculptures and other works of art are sourced from either the United States or other non-EU countries.

The imposition of a higher VAT rate will mean that high value art works are more likely to be sold in New York, which will almost certainly cost jobs in London. "If the court follows this ruling I believe that it will have a major impact on the standing of UK auction houses," said Paddy Behan, a VAT specialist at the accountants Grant Thornton UK LLP.

Anthony Browne, chairman of the British Art Market Federation, said: "If this comes into force it will make the tax situation, which is already complex, even more complicated. Something that this country is good at is being thrown away by half-baked ideas in Europe."

Britain, in fact, never levied VAT on imported works of art until it was forced to do so by the EU in 1995. The government negotiated a temporary rate of 2.5 percent but was told to double that four years later. With this impost anf the droit de suite law coming into force next January, the UK art market will inevitably be considerably damaged.

And all this has been done in the teeth of UK government opposition – yet another example of how the Labour government has become more powerful since it got more involved in Europe.

The business case for Europe

In a letter to the Financial Times today, signed by eleven of "the usual suspects", Britain in Europe makes "the business case for Europe". Shorn of the verbiage, these are the points made:

The treaty will ensure that an enlarged Union will function more effectively by defining the powers of the EU, streamlining decision making, strengthening the role of national parliaments and promoting greater transparency and accountability.

It will make it easier to do business throughout the world's largest trading bloc - a market into which more than 50 per cent of our goods are exported and upon which more than 3m jobs in our country depend.

It will ensure that Britain remains at Europe's top table, taking a leading role in the decision-making processes on key issues that affect our country, our businesses and the people who work in them.

Now is not the time for the UK to turn its back on Europe. The accession of 10 new member states (with other countries queuing up to join) and the election of a Commission committed to competitiveness, growth and jobs show that now, more than ever, the UK needs to be at the heart of Europe.

A rejection of the treaty would cost Britain dearly. It would be hugely damaging for our country and the business community, isolating the UK at a time when the pace of globalisation is making it ever more important that we remain at the forefront of European affairs.
What encouraging about this is that they have nothing new or different to offer. All BiE seems to be able to do is come up with is the same tired phrases. Surely they can do better than this?

Denied safety

For those readers who have been hardy (or reckless) enough to venture onto Commissioner Wallström's Blog, they may have come across her most recent (still) post, in which she waxes lyrical about the commission's "denied boarding" directive.

This is the fatuous piece of legislation that requires airlines to pay fixed compensation amounts to airline travellers whose flights are delayed or cancelled.

Instigated by the commission, driven by its usual obsession for "consumer protection", one small dissenting voice on Wallström’s comment section, by the name of "Lotaar", wrote that he/she was "kind of worried about the airline compensation law," adding, "Doesn't this encourage airlines to cut corners where safety is concerned?"

"I bet you fly many times a year in the course of your busy Euro agenda," the comment went on. "Wouldn't you prefer a pilot to be 100 percent sure of the safety of his/her aircraft without having to be worried about the prospect of paying compensation if the flight is delayed?"

As it turns out, this comment was unusually prescient, witness the piece in The Times today, headlined: "Flying faulty jumbo across Atlantic saves BA £100,000".

According to this report, a BA 747 Jumbo Jet, outbound from Los Angeles en route to London suffered a complete failure in one engine, very shortly after take-off when the aircraft was only 100 ft off the ground. Had the pilot elected to return to LA, however, his company would have had to pay over £100,000 in passenger compensation, so he decided to complete the 5,000-mile journey on three engines.

This incident apparently happened three days after the "denied boarding" directive came into force and Balpa, the British Air Line Pilots’ Association, has now warned that the legislation could result in pilots being pressured into taking greater risks for commercial reasons.

As to the details of the flight, the aircraft departed at 8.45pm on Saturday and the airline admitted that the delay would have been well over five hours if it had returned to Los Angeles. BA initially claimed that the engine had failed an hour into the flight. But the airline admitted yesterday that the problem had occurred a few seconds after take-off when the Boeing 747 was only 100ft above the ground.

Air traffic controllers at Los Angeles spotted streams of sparks shooting from the engine and immediately radioed the pilot. He attempted to throttle the engine back but was forced to shut it down after it continued to overheat. The plane then began circling over the Pacific while the pilot contacted BA’s control centre in London to discuss what to do. They decided the flight should continue to London even though it would burn more fuel on just three engines.

The Boeing 747 was unable to climb to its cruising altitude of 36,000ft and had to cross the Atlantic at 29,000ft, where the engines perform less efficiently and the tailwinds are less favourable. The unbalanced thrust also meant the pilot had to apply more rudder, causing extra drag.

The pilot realised as he flew over the Atlantic that he was running out of fuel and would not make it to Heathrow. He requested an emergency landing at Manchester and was met by four fire engines and thirty firefighters on the runway.

Nevertheless, BA are denying that financial concerns had played any part in the decision. Captain Doug Brown, the senior manager of BA's 747 fleet, says the only consideration had been "what was best for passengers". The Times report continues:

The plane is as safe on three engines as on four and it can fly on two. It was really a customer service issue, not a safety issue. The options would have been limited for passengers [if the plane had returned to Los Angeles]." He said the pilot would have had to dump more than 100 tonnes of fuel before landing at Los Angeles. "The authorities would have had words to say about that."
This statement is what is technically known as "crap". The aviation industry is wedded to the discipline of "fail-safe" and while the 747 can fly safely on three engine, this erodes safety margins in the event of another failure. Continuing on three also cut dangerously into fuel reserves, which means that passenger safety was definitely prejudiced - evidenced by the fact that the pilot had to divert to Manchester as a result of fuel shortage.

My guess is that this report may well cause some ructions in the industry, but there could well be some closing of the ranks. On the basis of what we know, however, the commission, despite its obsession for "consumer protection" should perhaps have named its new directive: "denied safety".

Budget blues

Yesterday, as everybody knows, the finance ministers of the 25 EU member states got together for their monthly council meeting. And, unlike Bush, happy they were not - on the agenda was that singularly awkward issue, next "multiannual" EU budget.

Dominating the meeting was the Lithuanian, Dalia Grybauskaite - aka the EU budget commissioner – who rapped the richer "old" members of the Community over the knuckles for being too greedy in wanting to keep on to their regional aid allocations.

Grybauskaite, a trained economist who studied for her PhD in the Moscow Academy of Public Sciences, also risked the wrath of l'escroc, in suggesting that pressure was mounting for a limited reopening of the controversial deal to fix farm support until 2013, brokered by Chirac in 2002.

Her Soviet training must have come in handy as the meeting was apparently beset by "fierce haggling" over the seven-year EU budget. However, Dr Grybauskaite clearly survived the experience, emerging to say that "the chances are increasing" that member states could reach a deal at the European Council in June.

Taking a highly un-Soviet-like stance, Grybauskaite had actually criticised her own commission's regional aid plans, drawn up by Michel Barnier, the former EU regional affairs commissioner, thus highlighting the debate about the distribution of the proposed €338bn regional budget between rich and poor countries.

According to the Financial Times, she said the original proposals would give 51 percent of the regional package to the EU's 15 older members while the relatively impoverished remainder would only 49 percent of the spoils. You can see the economist at work there.

The lady believes this is "difficult to defend", which is something of an understatement, but she is up against Spain which is determined to keep its share of the loot. To get past this blockage, Grybauskaite is going to need all her skills, and more.

However, just to make sure she has as many enemies as possible, the commissioner has also taken on the issue of Britain's rebate - worth an average of €4.6bn a year - declaring that it was "no longer justifiable... There is a new situation and the reasoning for the rebate has changed," adding, "We understand we need to find a solution which isn't hostile to the UK, or makes it difficult for the UK to sign up to a new package."

She has a lot to learn.

Thursday, February 24, 2005

Key word: democracy

Mr Bush must be a very happy bunny tonight as he wings his way back across the Atlantic – happy and relieved to get away from the madhouse that is European politics.

If he had any message to give the world though, it was in his last press conference with Vladimir Putin in Slovakia – the message being one word: democracy. Between the pair, they used the word 21 times. Freedom, incidentally, got only three mentions.

In his main speech, after dealing with Iran and sundry other issues, Bush told the world he and Putin had talked about democracy. Democracies, her said, always reflect a country's customs and culture, but they also had certain things in common: "…rule of law and protection of minorities, a free press and a viable political opposition."

With that, he reaffirmed his belief "that it is democracy and freedom that bring true security and prosperity in every land."

Significantly, or so it seems, in his response, Putin did not make any reference to democracy once but the first question from a reporter took up the theme again. Addressing the president, he reminded Bush that when he first met Putin, at a time some in the world were questioning his commitment to democracy, he had reassured critics by saying that you had looked into his soul and saw a man that you found trustworthy.

Bush was then invited to repeat that statement, while Putin was asked to "address critics" who were worried that he had reversed course on democracy.

Central to Bush's response was: "I think it's very important that all nations understand the great values inherent in democracy - rule of law and protection of minorities, viable political debate." Putin came back saying Russia had made its choice in favour of democracy. Any kind of turn towards totalitarianism for Russia would be impossible.

After waiting so long for a "democracy" from Putin, we then got no less than another four, all in a row. "We are not going to make up - to invent any kind of special Russian democracy," he said. "We are going to remain committed to the fundamental principles of democracy that have been established in the world. But, of course, all the modern institutions of democracy - the principles of democracy should be adequate to the current status of the development of Russia, to our history and our traditions.

The preceding period in the development of the Russian Federation had given the main thing to the Russian people – freedom, but "the implementation of the principles and norms of democracy," he added, "should not be accompanied by the collapse of the state and the impoverishment of the people."

Then, another "democracy" came along, and another: "I personally believe," said Putin, "that the implementation and the strengthening of democracy on the Russian soil should not jeopardize the concept of democracy. It should strengthen statehood and it should improve living standards for the people. It is in this direction that we're going to act."

This brought another question from the press corps, which suggested that the regimes in place in Russia and the US could not be considered fully democratic, especially when compared to some other countries of Europe, for example - for example, the Netherlands, mainly because of great powers that had been assumed by the security services.

Bush's response was interesting:

I live in a transparent country. I live in a country where decisions made by government are wide open, and people are able to call people to - me to account, which many out here do on a regular basis. Our laws, and the reasons why we have laws on the books, are perfectly explained to people. Every decision we have made is within the Constitution of the United States. We have a Constitution that we uphold. And if there is a question as to whether or not a law meets that Constitution, we have an independent court system, through which that law is reviewed.
Putin, however, took a different tack: "I'm absolutely confident that democracy is not anarchy”, he said. “It is not a possibility to do anything you want. It is not the possibility for anyone to rob your own people. Democracy is, among other things, and first and foremost, the possibility to democratically make democratic laws and the capability of the state to enforce those laws."

It was not right to talk about whether there was more or less democracy in Russia or the US. But, it was possible to talk about how the fundamental principles of democracy were implemented.

Still niggling away, another reporter asked whether the pair had agreed on some of the decisions Putin had made on his democratic institutions - or had they agreed to disagree?

Bush temporised: "I think the most important statement that you heard, and I heard, was the President's statement, when he declared his absolute support for democracy in Russia, and they're not turning back. To me, that is the most important statement of my private meeting, and it's the most important statement of this public press conference." And when Putin "tells you something, he means it."

Still the gathered reporters would not leave it. President Bush had recently stated that the press in Russia is not free, said another reporter. What is this lack of freedom all about?

Bush took this one, saying that he thought, "it's important any viable democracy has got a free and active press… it is an important part of any democracy." The press had to hold leaders to account. Bush was comfortable with that. "It's part of the checks and balances of a democracy," he said.

Putin actually agreed that "criticism coming from the media with respect to the government" was "a manifestation of democracy", denying also that the Russian press was not free.

But he was obviously getting tired with the line. You could almost hear his thoughts: "That's enough free press, ed". I "do not think that this has to be pushed to the foreground, that new problems should be created from nothing," he declared stiffly. And with but a few more words, he thanked Bush for "his constructive dialogue". The press conference was over.

We have become more powerful IV

"And for all of those that say, if you look at the last thirty years, we have lost power to Brussels, actually it isn’t true. In the last, certainly in the last eight years, as we, the Labour government, have been more involved in Europe, so we have become more powerful and more prosperous, better able, literally to implement a patriotic case for the European Union."

Jack Straw
Foreign Secretary

BBC Today Programme, 9 February 2005


In the Telegraph business section today we read an account of how a bid by Peugeot's sole British car plant to build a successor to the popular 206 and benefit from a near-£200m investment was hampered by Brussels bureaucrats taking two years to grant state aid.

The future of the Peugeot plant at Ryton, near Coventry, has been the source of speculation because Peugeot has declined to commit to building another car there apart from its ageing 206 model.

Jean-Martin Folz, Peugeot's chief executive, said yesterday that the factory had been one of several Peugeot plants in the running to build the new model – dubbed the 207 – in 2002. Peugeot applied for EU state aid for Ryton to underwrite a £191m investment. But by the time the EU agreed a €21m (£14.4m) grant, the 207 had been allocated to other plants in France and Slovakia.

Mr Folz said the EU, not Whitehall, was to blame for the delay. Company sources said the grant had been the longest to win approval that the Department of Trade and Industry had ever experienced. The EU commission did not comment last night.

But then the commission does not need to comment. Being unelected and largely unaccountable, our government can do as it pleases. Yet, according to Jack Straw, "we have become more powerful."

A question of scrutiny

In the House of Commons debating chamber, television cameras often show ranks of empty benches, even during quite important debates, inviting comment that MPs are not bothering to take part in the parliamentary process.

Some of that is true, notwithstanding that MPs have televisions in their offices with a direct feed to the Chamber, so they can follow debates while also carrying out other work.

But behind the scenes there are also the parliamentary committees, many unsung, unheard and almost completely ignored by the media. Three such as the European Standing Committees, known respectively – with unusual simplicity and logic – as Euro A, B, and C.

These committees form the vital function of questioning ministers over forthcoming EU legislation, prior to their approving it in Brussels through the Council, and (in theory at least) giving those ministers a negotiating mandate which they are supposed to take into account when it comes to voting.

The committees themselves are at the tail end of the scrutiny process, with the legislation first being looked at by the European Scrutiny Committee, which decided whether any of the draft legislation coming through from Brussels is "politically significant".

Proposals which are considered so are marked down for "scrutiny reserve" – which, in theory, means that they cannot be approved by ministers until they have been debated by the House – and referred to one or other of the Euro committees for debate.

Thus, it came to pass that yesterday "Euro A" met to consider two draft EU regulations, together aimed at establishing a "legal base" for the financing of the "reformed" Common Agricultural Policy.

But what effectively amounted to a total farce – a hollow charade even – started some 24 hours before the debate for it is only then that the committee papers were passed to the MPs who would attend. They were sent the regulations, which themselves amounted to 104 pages, with explanatory notes, in a package of background papers which amounted in total to over 400 pages (448, to be precise).

There followed a frenetic reading and study session (hence the light posting yesterday) yet, such is the complexity of the subject, and the uncertainties surrounding it, that even this package was not enough. Much of the information needed, on which to pass judgement, simply is not known.

In the questioning and debate, which can be read on the Hansard site, two speakers pointed up the nature of the problem.

Firstly, Owen Paterson, Conservative MP for North Shropshire, and one of the shadow agriculture and fisheries team, noted that it was "most unsatisfactory" trying to discuss something "about which we do not know the details".

He added, rather poignantly that: "It is rather like trying to grasp a greased piglet in the dark," a comment that drew some amused responses, not least a question as to whether Paterson was speaking from personal experience. (No said Paterson, he only did it in daylight.)

Then Andrew George, the Lib Dem Agriculture spokesman, noting the complexity, recorded that he had tried to discuss the issues but there were, he said, few who are capable of seeing the whole picture, adding: "The last one I met who got their head completely around the issues involved is more likely to need institutional care as a result of the struggle that they experienced."

This was brought out in the evidence from the European Landowners Organisation (ELO), cited by Owen Paterson in his speech, that organisation stating:

The problems and needs of Europe's rural areas differ enormously... This must mean that the balance of measures selected as appropriate to each region is also bound to differ enormously.
Then, getting to the crux of the problem, the ELO pointed out:

We have no evidence to suggest that the Commission is better at prioritising and effective policy management at EU level than the Member States and Regions are at their level. Setting the priorities, quantified objectives, and indicators at EU level will turn out to either be a practical impossibility if done at the right level of detail, or it risks being meaninglessly general if set at a broad level for which comparable data exist for every region.
And that is the crux of the problem. With 25 nations now in the CAP, the system of agricultural payments and the regulations controlling them are now so complex that they are virtually beyond the capability of the human mind to comprehend them. None of the MPs present understood them fully and, throughout the questioning, the minister, Alun Michael, was floundering, unable to give answers to even the basic questions.

But, after two hours of questioning and debate, a motion was put asking the members to "take note" of the regulations and approve the government's line. The question went to division and, with its in-built government majority, the committee voted the motion through. The deed was done, the minister got his mandate and no one was any the wiser.

That, dear readers, is parliamentary scrutiny of EU legislation.

Dr Helen Szamuely

The lady is fine... just spoken to her - chirpy and compost mentis, hoping to be "sprung" over the weekend.

She thanks everyone for their best wishes.

Labour hijacks VE day

The Sun is in fine form today, squawking indignantly (and rightly so) about Labour's "VE day insult". Apparently, Blair plans to mark the 60th anniversary of Victory in Europe day by launching the "yes" campaign for the EU referendum.

According to the Sun, arch Europhile trade secretary Patricia Hewitt is behind the decision to earmark May 8 - the official date of the end of World War Two in Europe - to start the campaign.

This apparently stems from a speech made at the Mansion House in the City of London last night when, according to the Financial Times, Hewitt admitted for the first time that many executives were still not persuaded of the benefits of the treaty, that the European Union was "unpopular" and that the government had failed to make the case for membership with sufficient conviction.

But it seems that an unnamed "Whitehall official" said the trade and industry secretary believed the government "should hit the ground running" and that the forthcoming European celebrations of VE Day, on 8 May, offered an opportune platform "to go out and make the case".

In true Sun style, the paper picks up on this comment and recounts how "disgusted old soldiers teamed up with MPs from all sides to condemn the government". It cites Labour MP Ian Davidson, vice-chairman of the British-German All-Party Parliamentary Group, saying: "I fear ministers will be willing to fight on the beaches, fight on the landing grounds and fight in the streets — all to surrender Britain's sovereignty… They should be ashamed of trying to hijack VE Day."

Conservative leader Michael Howard is also brought into the fray, "fuming". He says: "So many people gave their lives to fight for our freedom. They fought for our democracy — not to have decisions affecting us made by politicians who are not accountable to the British people. I cannot think of a more inappropriate way to celebrate the 60th anniversary of VE Day."

The Sun then selects "Labour-voting Frank Rosier, 79", of the Normandy Veterans' Association, to say: "It's offensive. VE Day should be about remembering those boys who gave their lives — not making us puppets to further any political party’s cause."

Patricia Hewitt has put the referendum on Europe's constitutional treaty at the heart of Labour's plans for a third term, urging sceptical business leaders to back the campaign for a "yes" vote.

There is indeed something particularly crass about this attempt to link the campaign with the VE day anniversary, but it perhaps links in with the Straw theme of "making a patriotic case" for approving the constitution.

But, in the week that Tony Blair is fighting his case for overturning the Magna Carta, by seeking to introduce detention without trial on the say-so of a politician, all this goes to show is how far out of touch Labour ministers are with public sentiment.

However, the choice of date has further significance. It is now a given that the government will not launch the "yes" campaign until after the general election and with 8 May being a Sunday, this virtually confirms the date of the election as 5 May.

Can "super-soft" Europe make the difference?

The Washington Post and many other newspapers, have Bush and Schröder now agreeing on Iran, jointly declaring that the United States and Europe are united in their opposition to Iranian development of nuclear weapons.

That was during a press conference in Mainz, Germany, after a meeting on the fourth day of Bush's trip to Europe. Said Bush, "It's vital that the Iranians hear the world speak with one voice that they shouldn't have a nuclear weapon."

However, from Tehran, that world looks very different. There, it is being said that the capabilities and maturity of the European Union has been put to the test in the international arena by the nuclear issue and the main reason behind the US pressure is to undermine European independence.

According to the Mehr news agency in Tehran, that is the view of Hasan Rowhani, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, the country’s chief nuclear negotiator.

He goes on to state that Al-Qa'idah is the brainchild of the United States and that the activity of the terrorist network is the main pretext for the US “meddling” in the affairs of the Islamic world.

Meanwhile, Iranian officials are reported as reiterating their denials of any plans to produce nuclear weapons, still insisting that Iran has the right to pursue nuclear technology, including uranium enrichment.

The state-run Islamic Republic News Agency also reported president Mohammad Khatami as saying that "the Europeans would suffer more than Iran" if they succumbed to US pressures and took action against his country.

With such an extreme divergence of views, it is hard to see how any diplomatic solution can be reached. Can anyone really believe that Europe's "super-soft" power is going to make the difference?

Wednesday, February 23, 2005

China - a political agenda

In the current edition of DefenseNews, two authors, Gordon Adams and Guy Ben-Ari suggest that the Bush administration could kick-start the trans-Atlantic relationship by improving co-operation in defence technology.

As with the recent award of the contract for the 23-strong fleet of US presidential helicopters to a European firm, this could pay dividends in bringing European defence industries closer to their counterparts in the US, with a beneficial political fall-out.

The two authors have some credibility, Gordon Adams being the director of Security Policy Studies at George Washington University's Elliott School of International Affairs, while Guy Ben-Ari is a consultant with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and they make a powerful case.

Apart from the political benefits, they argue that the US would also benefit form more open market, from cost savings to technological synergies, together with enhanced alliance interoperability. Furthermore, the pair say, European manufacturers have much to offer.

One area of collaboration which Adams and Ben-Ari identify as particularly ripe for cooperation is unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), both surveillance and armed, and their sensors. Many European countries possess substantial technological knowledge and experience in this area, including engines, airframe design and stealth technology.

In other areas, they consider European firms also considerable expertise, some of which have fearsome descriptions, such as: active, electronically scanned array radar; hyperspectral imaging; lightweight synthetic aperture radar and ground moving target indicators relevant for sensor payloads – terms which to an average reader mean very little.

A trans-Atlantic initiative, they argue, could open a much-needed dialogue and build on a number of successful projects already carried out inder the aegis of Nato.

Furthermore, say the authors, such technical co-operation across the Atlantic will be necessary for future coalition operations to be assembled and carried out successfully. Without this, of course, different forces will not be able to operate together, even if the political will is there.

On the face of it, this is an intriguing thesis. Given US willingness to promote co-operation, this is indeed one way of ensuring that Nato allies stay on side.

And, while France is looking to China to increase its arms sales, the Chinese defence budget for 2004 was around $22 billion – although the real expenditure is estimated to be in the order of $50 and $70 billion – compared with the US budget of just over $500 billion.

On the face of it, US sales are potentially far more valuable and since selling to the Chinese risks exclusion from the US, it would seem to make more economic sense for European manufacturers to concentrate on the US. That is certainly the line the UK’s BAE Systems seems to be taking, and Rolls Royce may well follow.

Thus, if there is little economic sense in European arms manufacturers pursuing the lifting of the EU's arms embargo on China, there would seem to be another reason why the EU is so determined to lift it.

The clue lies in Chirac, who yesterday described China as the European Union's "strategic partner". Here, there is a profound political agenda, and that rather precludes the US looking for greater co-operation with its European "allies".

Cry freedom

It may be hard to visualise the EU in terms of a battery cage, but it can be done. For me, in fact, it is relative easy as, in an earlier career, I had more than a passing familiarity with battery hens, working as I was at the time for a trade association representing egg producers.

One of our major concerns, as you might expect, was the growing and increasingly vociferous animal rights lobby which campaigned against the keeping of battery hens, claiming that producers were depriving the hens of their basic freedoms.

However, not a few of our producers pointed out that that their hens seemed perfectly content within their cages and, from my own observations, it often seemed as if the hens themselves were unaware of their bars.

Walk down the narrow galleries between the banks of cages and there they would be, with their heads poked through the bars, clucking and squawking as the mood took them. We could see their bars; they could not.

But what was particularly fascinating was that, on occasions when birds were released, their first instinct was to get back in their cages. Some groups who specialised in liberating redundant birds and putting them on the range, reported that the hens had to be introduced slowly to their new lives, and trained to deal with them. In other words, freedom did not come easily and they had to be schooled to appreciate it.

In this context, the comment piece by Janet Daley in today’s Telegraph has a special resonance.

Entitled, "Freedom? Why Europe's not bothered", her thesis the ideals articulated by George W Bush stem from the 18th Century age of enlightenment in Europe and were exported to America and beyond.

Thus, she maintains, while Europeans themselves undermined their own great democratic project with their ancient hatreds and their aristocratic nostalgia, the naïve Americans kept the dream intact, building it into a written constitution (which was an 18th-century idea itself). She continues:

Europe has pretty much given up on the whole undertaking now: we tried it and it ended in the Terror. We went through our phase of proselytising democratic revolution with Bonaparte and look where that ended. Spreading freedom? All that amounts to is killing off one generation of autocrats and replacing them with another. Trust the people? They are just as likely to follow a fascist demagogue as to perpetuate the sacred principle of justice.

Better to make your cynical peace with the worst aspects of human nature than to pretend that free men will always choose good over evil. Much better to make a mutually profitable trade-off behind the scenes than to expose political decisions to the popular will. What evidence is there that the people actually know what is best for them? Most charitably, the European philosophy of government - shortly to be permanently installed under the EU constitution - is paternalistic. At worst, it is arrogant and authoritarian.
Whatever it is, Daley writes, Europe no longer has a belief in real democracy of the kind that Americans recognise - government of the people, by the people and for the people - at its heart.

That is why, she says, Jacques Chirac - the very embodiment of corrupt European political cynicism - and George Bush can never, ever find true common ground. When the President tries to give credit where it is due - to the European authorship of democratic revolution - it sounds faintly sarcastic. Thus, American talk about spreading freedom is not just gauche; it is a reproach.

Daley has a pessimistic view of the future. It is too late to change, she believes. Europe has had disillusionments too great to permit a return to that purist belief in the transforming power of democratic institutions:

Europeans cannot be trusted to govern themselves. Their affairs will be administered by an EU oligarchy. And if they do not trust their own populations, European leaders are scarcely going to support handing out freedom to anarchic tribal societies that scarcely know what the right to vote is for.

Europeans have found something better, and more readily controlled, as a substitute for personal liberty. They have found wealth: mass prosperity and the kind of government-subsidised economic security that their countries, traumatised by generations of war and unrest, have never known.
Now they are not even fit to defend themselves, Daley concludes, or to sort out a mess in their own Balkan backyard. "Why should they join in any crazy scheme to bring peace to the rest of the world?" she asks.

And there you are back to your hens. Used to the comfort and warmth of their cages, with a regular supply of food and all their needs attended to, the European have got used to their bars – they no longer notice them. And when they meet their free-range cousins, they recoil in horror at tales of the wide open ranges and all the perils that go with them.

That is the divide. To the Americans, freedom still means something. Back in the old country, the "citizens" run to the cloying embrace of "mother Europe" and if, perchance, they are released from their gilded cages, their first and only instinct is to get back inside.

Changing horses

Something the Telegraph found notable yesterday in the rush of news about the Bush visit was the "strikingly low profile" of British prime minister Tony Blair.

While other European leaders may have jostled for media attention and "face time" with the president during yesterday's summits, there were raised eyebrows when, alone of all the major leaders attending both the Nato and EU gatherings, Blair did not answer questions from the thousands of reporters thronging Brussels.

Apparently, he merely delivered a brief statement after a working breakfast with Mr Bush and posed for photographs with the visiting Ukrainian president, Viktor Yushchenko.

The immediate thought here is that Blair has a general election coming and, with a fractious, anti-war left wing, he is anxious to distance himself from Bush.

British officials sniffily rejected such suggestions. How dare the hacks suggest that these "crude electoral considerations" could motivate the great leader – well, the semi-great leader – and impinge upon the purity of the Bush-Blair relationship.

"It's absolute nonsense to suggest the Prime Minister has been adopting a low profile. He has participated very actively in a Nato-Ukraine summit, the US-Nato summit, and the EU," spluttered one official.

However, fresh from the school of “nothing is true in politics until it has been denied”, there has to be some truth in this. Insiders have long been suggesting that Blair’s stance on the China embargo, and his enthusiasm for an EU solution to the Iran problem have everything to do with countering the charge that he is Bush’s poodle.

The trouble is, of course, that if you change horse in mid-stream, there is a very real risk that you get wet – or even worse.

We have become more powerful III

"And for all of those that say, if you look at the last thirty years, we have lost power to Brussels, actually it isn’t true. In the last, certainly in the last eight years, as we, the Labour government, have been more involved in Europe, so we have become more powerful and more prosperous, better able, literally to implement a patriotic case for the European Union."

Jack Straw
Foreign Secretary

BBC Today Programme, 9 February 2005


While Bush has spent two days in Brussels, largely meeting the same people with different hats, in what The Times has called his "groundhog day", UK chancellor Gordon Brown has had a much better time of it, on an official visit to China.

But even there, thousands of miles from the capital of the evil empire, he could not escape the baleful influence of Brussels.

According to The Times business section, he is facing "a showdown with Europe" that could threaten to derail a rescue deal for ailing carmaker MG Rover.

Gordon's problem is that he has promised of a multimillion-pound tax break as a "sweetener" to the Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation, which is interested in taking over the Rover plant. It has been speculated that the company could be allowed to defer its VAT payment, which could be more than £50 million.

The government is anxious to see a deal between the two sides complete before the expected general election in May. MG Rover’s Longbridge factory employs 6,500 and is in the middle of some key marginal seats.

No sooner said, however, than Gordon was reminded that, under EU competition rules, subsidies and tax advantages to an individual company are illegal unless there are special circumstances, such as the company being in a designated underdeveloped area.

Yesterday, Jonathan Todd, the EU commission's competition spokesman, said: "As a matter of routine, the commission would look at any benefits to Rover to assess whether these could be considered to be state aid, and if so, whether they are compatible with EU rules."

Undoubtedly a little embarrassed to be reminded that the real government of Britain was threatening to derail his plans – in a country where "face" is everything – Brown tried to brush aside concerns over EU rules, claiming that his deal would not infringe them.

The fact remains, however, that the arbiter of whether they comply with the rules remains with Brussels and Brown cannot proceed unless and until his masters give him permission – yet another example of how we have become more powerful.

Tuesday, February 22, 2005

The peasants are revolting

While Belgian police were being kept busy in Brussels dealing with demonstrations against Bush, they were not the only ones. In Budapest, Hungary, thousands of Hungarian farmers were also staging a demonstration - with not a US president in sight.

This demonstration was partly about non-payment of their EU subsidies but the farmers were also demanding the government protect them from what they call a flood of cheap imports.

Farmers from throughout the country drove to Budapest on some 900 tractors Monday and parked them in the town centre. Backed by 15 farmers associations, they then threatened to stay put 1 March if the government failed to meet their demands.

At the heart of the protest is an allegation that the government has only paid out only nine percent of 220 billion forints (€905 million) in CAP subsidies set aside for 2004.

The government admits it is behind schedule with payments and the chairman of the governing Socialist Party pledged on public TV pay up "within a conceivable time" – whatever that means. Agriculture minister Imre Nemeth also chipped in, expressing "personal dissatisfaction" with the funds payment office.

But this may not be so easy. The EU commission has repeatedly pointed out failings in the Hungarian government system, complaining about its sluggishness in carrying out the necessary technological and administrative arrangements to secure the timely payment of subsidies.

Oddly enough, British farmers are going through the same problems, with December payments due from the government's Rural Payments Agency having been delayed until at least March because of a failed computer system. only in this case, the peasants are not revolting. They just write angry letters to the farming press.

Nato is the cornerstone

More on president Bush. "Nato," he says, is the "cornerstone" of the transatlantic relationship. It is "the most successful alliance in the history of the word", he added, repeating the sentence word for word, for emphasis. "Because of Nato, Europe is whole, united and at peace."

So much for the EU and its claims for preventing war in Europe.

The China view

In response to questioning at a press conference following his visit to Nato headquarters this morning, president Bush has told reporters that the United States is deeply concerned that European Union countries may transfer military technology to China, skewing the balance of power with Taiwan.

He said he had discussed with French and British leaders the prospect of the EU lifting an arms embargo on Beijing, and both had sought to assure him they had a plan to avoid such technology transfers.

Pointing up difficulties to come, Bush then said the Europeans would need to convince the U.S. Congress that such fears were unfounded. On this, it is very much Congress which is making the running. With the focus on the president, commentators often tend to forget this and, at the moment, neither House is in an accommodating mood.

Meanwhile, the state newspaper, China Daily is offering its own perspective on the “EU and US”, through the eyes of its commentator “Yapchongyee”.

Written in the first person, he (I assume) declares that President Bush has "LOST FACE" (all capitals in the original) on the issue of the EU wanting to lift the embargo on the export of arms to China.

"I have said before", he continues, "and it is now fact that the issue would have exposed the INDEPENDANCE OF THE EU FROM AMERICAN MEDDLING; and such exposure would have added to the diminishment of the STATUS AND PERCEPTION OF THE USA AS A SUPER-POWER OF THE WORLD."

Bush, we are told, "must have realised that the word of the USA does not have the same respect from the EU as they were used to," with "Yapchongyee" adding:

The USA is not the so called exceptional and virtueous AND BENEVOLENT nation that the USA sees as their heritage. The USA is today seen as the greatest PREDATOR IMPERIAL POWER IN THE MODERN WORLD. The USA aspires to be the WORLD GOVERNMENT and to achieve this the Bush Administeration (sic) sought to under mine the United Nations and to eventually destroy the United Nations; hence the GLOATING OF DON RUMSFELD'S DIVISIVE STATEMENT OF OLD EUROPE AND NEW EUROPE in his dispute with France and Germany.
And so it goes on. “New Eu members like Poland and lithuania and Romania, thinking that they can gain by allying with the USA are now leaving in double quick time. The reality of today's geo-economic and political is fast shifting away from a dominant USA; and I believe that this reality is dawning on the 'OLD EUROPEANS'".

Yapchongyee also has some advice for the Europeans:

The fact of this reality is that the EU means to realise their own place in the world community; and contrary to the USA's thinking the EU does not mean to sub-ordinate their ambitions to promote their own-eminence. The rise of the European Union will logically DIMINISH THE IMPORTANCE AND THE USA; this is inevitable because the resources of the world is limited and fast diminishing. It therfore becomes a zero sum game. THE EU CAN CHOOSE ONLY ONE COURSE 'TAKE IT OR LOSE IT TO THE USA OR ASIA.'
And then we get to his “analysis” which "clearly mark (sic) out the world as multipolar in fact; and it will be centered at BRUSSELS, BEIGIN AND WASHINGTON. Each for himself. There are no allies and no enemies, you pick a partner that will give you the best profit." He concludes that, having watched the TV appearance of President Jac Chirac and President Bush; while their appearance were openly cordial; he noticed: "THAT THE SMILE OF PRESIDENT JAC CHIRAC WAS NOT WARM, HE WAS ACCOMMODATING AND RESERVED."

"This tells me," writes Yapchongyee, "that the defferences (sic) between the two are more entrenched than the Western Media would have us believe."

And this is the country with which the EU wants a "strategic partnership".

It don't mean nuffin

Reading through the printed media this morning, we were left wondering whether there was anything more to say about the Bush speech last night.

On reflection, perhaps the main thing we could add – although it is a point we have made before - is that the Bush visit is almost certainly for domestic consumption.

We are informed that the main aim is for Bush to make emollient noises to the "Europeans", with warm-sounding calls for co-operation, not in any expectation of a genuine response or sea-change in European attitudes, but as a marker for the future.

When, as is certainly the case, unresolved differences bubble to the fore and impact heavily on the domestic front, Bush will be able to turn to his own people and remind them that he sought co-operation. Then, the expected lack of a positive European response will not be of his doing.

That, in its own way, will pave the way for Bush's own brand of multi-lateralism and justify his by-passing the EU as a power-bloc. He will, with a clear conscience, be able to approach individual member states to form or maintain his own coalitions of the willing.

But what is singular about the response to the speech is the attempts by fringe Europhiles to read into the speech an endorsement of the EU which simply is not there. Much is made of a single passage in Bush’s speech, where he says:

The spread of freedom has helped to resolve old disputes, and the enlargement of Nato and the European Union have made partners out of former rivals. America supports Europe's democratic unity for the same reason we support the spread of democracy in the Middle East - because freedom leads to peace. And America supports a strong Europe because we need a strong partner in the hard work of advancing freedom in the world.
In particular, the phrase "America supports Europe's democratic unity" has been picked out as implying support for European integration, heedless of the fact that in the preceding sentence, Bush speaks of Nato and the European Union in the same breath.

From that and the speech in general, The Guardian manages to suggest that

Many Europeans will take comfort in the fact that the president went out of his way to treat the EU so seriously. Gone was the sense, such a damaging element of the Iraq crisis, that the US would cherry-pick "willing allies" among compliant "new" Europeans. Now he favours "a strong Europe", not for its own sake, which may be fair enough, but "because we need a strong partner in the hard work of advancing freedom in the world".
Yes, Bush did say that "America supports a strong Europe", but in no way can that be construed as singling out the European Union. If he had meant the EU, he would surely have said so. And he could hardly have said that America supports a weak Europe. All he was doing was uttering that "motherhood and apple pie" type of phrasing that was bound to bring applause but is essentially meaningless without elaboration.

Whether he is going to get that "strong Europe" is also very much open to debate. Even at its most ambitious, the EU militant aims only to filed a rapid reaction force of 60,000 troops – but without the advance equipment, logistics or heavy lift capability that will make it credible and, from an article in Euractive today we read that:

The time has come for Europe to exert itself and claim its place as a global player that is becoming a civil superpower. Europe is beginning to rival the US in terms of global influence and soft power. President Bush must come to terms with the emerging new Europe - strong and united, with its own foreign policy and a common security and defence policy.
A "civil superpower" eh? That's a new one, but not one that will have the mad mullahs or Al Quaida shaking in its shoes - about as effective as a rubber tank.

Perhaps Mark Steyn has it in his Telegraph piece when he suggests that "this week we're toasting the end of an idea: the death of 'the West'", which can't be far wrong if the best the EU can ever aspire to is a military force something less than half the size of the US Marine Corps and the prospect of a "civil superpower".

However, with Bush this morning meeting first Tony Blair and then moving on to Nato, the latest report from Reuters gives a better indication of what is going on.

Contrary to Schröder's speech last week, where the German chancellor sought to portray Nato as "outdated", Bush came out from his meeting with Blair with a resounding vote of confidence in the Atlantic treaty, declaring:

NATO is a vital relationship for the United States and for Europe. A strong Europe is very important to the United States, and I really meant that.
Once again we see the reference to "a strong Europe" but this time no mention of the European Union. In those terms, a strong Europe is a Europe within Nato. And it is through Nato, rather than the EU that Bush is looking for more support in Iraq and Afghanistan, with an offer from "Nato members" to train Iraqi police on the table.

Hence a senior Bush administration official is stating that: "…I would say that Nato is more unified today on Iraq, Afghanistan and the other major issues in the alliance than at any time in the last three years. There is a much better tone." Again, no mention of the European Union.

This afternoon, Bush is at the heart of the evil empire, at the EU commission, meeting the EU commission president Barroso. There, he may adjust his language to include some references to the European Union but, as the grunts used to say in VietNam, "it don't mean nuffin".

Dr Helen Szamuely

In her previous post and her last for what we hope is for only a short time, Helen makes reference to her delivering herself into the hands of the NHS.

Although she makes light of this, she is in fact undergoing a serious operation and will need prolonged therapy afterwards for the dreaded "big C". She tells me the prognosis is good and is very positive about the outcome.

Although, on this Blog, it falls to me to post most of the material, I take much guidance from Helen, whose judgement I value greatly and who manages – usually – to temper my worst excesses. I will continue posting while she is hors de combat but will miss her greatly for what I hope will be a short absence.

I am sure all our readers will wish her all the best for a speedy recovery and return.

The fragrant Glenys

On Sunday I spent some time taking part in various TV discussions about the Spanish referendum, each time up against a Labour MEP. In my own opinion the europhiles do themselves no favours by fielding people who so clearly do very well out of the system. But then, why should I care?

One of the discussions was with Lady Kinnock, otherwise known as our Glenys, the fragrant Welsh MEP and assiduous participant in all European Parliament tours round the the world in her capacity as yet another spokesperson on aid.

What astonished me was the paucity of her arguments about the constitution. Not for her the sophistication of “soft power”. She was droning on about economic benefits (unspecified), jobs (unaccounted for), and the horrors of the eurosceptic press.

She even tried to tell me that what I referred to as the constitution was not precisely that but had lots of add-on documents. Not sure what she meant but if she thinks that all those protocols are not part of the constitution she does not know a great deal.

When asked about the need for information, she informed us that the Commission was ready to provide it but the nasty eurosceptics objected to that. I pointed out that we did not object to it but insisted on it being properly labelled (i.e. if it is the Commission who says things, we should know that) and we reserved the right to correct all errors in the information.

Then came the dreaded eurosceptic press. In particular, she referred to the story about closing the embassies. Well, well, well, I thought. Can she really be that silly? So, I told her that it was Spanish Prime Minister Zapatero who said it and no, he was not misquoted. Also, I said, if she is in favour of the common foreign policy, she should be in favour of EU embassies.

At that point the interviewer announced that we had run out of time. But I remain worried. These cannot be the heavy guns. When are they going to be wheeled out and are we prepared for them?

PS There will be a short interruption in my posting service as I deliver myself into the hands of the NHS. My colleague will carry on and as soon as I emerge from the anaesthetic I shall be on the phone to him.

No wonder they want the embargo lifted

Sales of French arms around the world are declining because of stepped-up competition by the United States, Russia and Israel, says the French Defence Ministry.

Although France remains the third-biggest weapons merchant after the United States and Britain, in the period 2002-3 its share of the market has slipped. From 1994 to 2003, French arms sales accounted for 12 percent of the world’s total, and brought in an average of $6.5 billion per year. In 2002 they dropped to $5.75 billion and to $5.6 billion in 2003.

By comparison, U.S. arms exports accounted for $40 billion of some $200 billion in international weapons sales in 2001 alone and have increased steadily since. Interestingly, part of the success of US arms sales is due to the Iraq wars, its "battle-tested" equipment being more attractive to buyers. By contrast, some of the downturn in French sales arises through its loss of Saddam Hussein who was, for a time, France's biggest customer.

Now, complains Jean-Paul Panie, a senior official in the ministry’s arms procurement and sales section: "The Americans' effort to export is much bigger than it used to be."

But, with US arms sales to China heavily restricted by domestic legislation, French manufacturers have an opportunity to penetrate a market where often superior US equipment cannot be sold. Small wonder, therefore, that France is so eager to see the China arms embargo lifted.

Blogs away!

We have had occasion to point out the fact that while in the United States many (though, obviously, not all) of the blogs have been on the right of the politial spectrum, pro-Republican, pro-Bush, in Britain and Europe the line up is slightly different.

A very large proportion of the British blogs, for instance, are eurosceptic. The same applies to the Continental ones. Many of them determinedly pro-American or, at least, anti-anti-American.

The reason is clear and the same in all these different parts of the world. Blogs go against the mainstream media. What is the point of running an anti-American blog in Europe when the entire media is anti-American?

So it was joyous to read that Norman Geras in his eclectic and often extremely witty blog normblog drew everyone’s attention to an interesting text that language centre of the prestigious University of Leiden was using for its English proficiency test.

The text is entitled Idiot Nation and proceeds with several paragraphs of the most virulent anti-American rant. At the end, students are asked to answer various questions about individual words, phrases and ideas and generally discuss the lamentably low intelligence level of all Americans.

The author of the text? Michael Moore. It is a passage from Stupid White Men.

The notion of Mr Moore being the sort of author with the sort of prose style that repays studying in any detail is risible. He is not even a particularly clever propagandist. (I have always refused to see Fahrenheit 9/11 on the grounds that it is nowhere near as good as any of Eizenstein’s propaganda films. That being so, what is the point of watching it?)

Even more extraordinary is the idea that a highly regarded university should use this kind of viciously anti-American balderdash as a routine text for learning English.

The story, inevitably, made its way round the net and the university had to withdraw the text. But it was highly surprised. Gabriel Hoezen, the head of the language centre at Leiden told journalists plaintively that the text had been used for several years without anyone realizing its political significance. Clearly Mr Hoezen and his colleagues thought Michael Moore was a straightforward realistic writer. As stupidity goes, that takes some beating.

Furthermore, there had never been any complaints before. Not until someone from the university sent a copy to a blogger, who publicized it. Strike one.

The Beeb strikes again

You have read the oracle but, clearly, the BBC would not agree.

The BBC Radio 4 World Tonight "take" on that speech was that Bush had spoken out for European integration. From the interviewer and two guests, we got such choicphrases as "Bush's sudden enthusiasm for further integration in Europe"; that the US "has no better partner than the EU"; and a view that the president was "encouraging a more integrated EU".

A reading of the speech, however, demonstrates that Bush did not once mention the European Union. All his references were to "Europe".

Even Timothy Garton Ash, the arch Europhile, noted this. Cited in several newspapers, his response to the speech was that Bush did not address in his speech the issue of "why it matters for the United States to work with the European Union". "I don't think he will convince many Europeans talking like that ... This is not a breakthrough speech," he said.

Still, hats off to the skill of the Beeb, drawing from the speech something that no one else seems to have noticed.

Monday, February 21, 2005

President Bush continues to disappoint (not!)

[Health warning: this posting, too, will be analyzing President Bush’s visit and what he said. Some of our readers, with weak nervous systems, will find it hard going.]

There was, unsurprisingly, very little that was unexpected in President Bush’s speech this evening. He talked much about the need to fight for freedom and democracy, in the Middle East and in Eastern Europe.

He criticized Russia as strongly as he could:

“I also believe that Russia's future lies within the family of Europe and the transatlantic community. America supports WTO membership for Russia, because meeting WTO standards will strengthen the gains of freedom and prosperity in that country. Yet, for Russia to make progress as a European nation, the Russian government must renew a commitment to democracy and the rule of law.

We recognize that reform will not happen overnight. We must always remind Russia, however, that our alliance stands for a free press, a vital opposition, the sharing of power, and the rule of law -- and the United States and all European countries should place democratic reform at the heart of their dialogue with Russia.”

This contrasted strongly with the warm words he spoke about developments in Ukraine, Afghanistan and Iraq.

He spoke, as expected, about the alliance between North America and Europe and the need for a strong, united Europe. One cannot help thinking that what he had in mind was a Europe strongly united in its support for the United States and the western alliance.

Nor did Bush show himself entirely unaware of problems in Western Europe:
“As we seek freedom in other nations, we must also work to renew the values that make freedom possible. As I said in my Inaugural Address, we cannot carry the message of freedom and the baggage of bigotry at the same time. We must reject anti-Semitism from any source, and we must condemn violence such as we have witnessed in the Netherlands. All our nations must work to integrate minorities into the mainstream of society, and to teach the value of tolerance to each new generation.”
For the first time in many years there was an open call for Syrian forces to leave Lebanon. Yes, I know there was a Security Council Resolution 1559, but who has mentioned it in a very long time? President Bush has lived up to what he said would be the theme of his second administration: freedom and democracy.
“This strategy is not American strategy, or European strategy, or Western strategy. Spreading liberty for the sake of peace is the cause of all mankind. This approach not only reduces a danger to free peoples; it honors the dignity of all peoples, by placing human rights and human freedom at the center of our agenda. And our alliance has the ability, and the duty, to tip the balance of history in favor of freedom.”
He spoke a good deal about the possibilities in the Middle East, especially in Palestine and talked a great deal of what both the Israelis and the Palestinians will have to do to achieve that much needed goal of two democratic states next to each other. (One, of course, is already in place.)

Interestingly, he said:
“And I appreciate the prominent role that Prime Minister Blair and other European leaders are playing in the cause of peace.”
The one thing he did not say was that he supported or even wanted the European Union. Instead, he mentioned individual leaders and talked about various European countries. In fact, he managed to refer to the fact that some European countries supported the war in Iraq while others did not. The great fault-line in Europe was not simply airbrushed out of the picture he was painting.

Clearly, President Bush, his administration and its advisers see Europe as united possibly but as separate states. Primarily, he sees Europe as a necessary ally or, rather, a group of necessary allies in the world-wide fight against terrorism but, more than that, the fight for freedom and democracy.

As to what view the Europeans themselves will take, he left it to them. Some have already shown that they are more interested in their mingy in-fighting and the construction of small-minded, inward-looking European Union.

Both Javier Solana and Chancellor Schröder have declared themselves effectively in being uninterested in the great project of taking freedom to countries that do not have it. Their interest lies in challenging America’s leadership even if they do not quite know what to do when they have challenged it.

At least President Chirac pretended to be pleased with the way things are going.

But, of course, with all the rejoicing, bridge-building and friendly meal-sharing, the problems remain. On Iran, Bush did not move much beyond what Secretary of State Rice had said.

“In Iran, the free world shares a common goal: For the sake of peace, the Iranian regime must end its support for terrorism, and must not develop nuclear weapons. In safeguarding the security of free nations, no option can be taken permanently off the table. Iran, however, is different from Iraq. We're in the early stages of diplomacy.

The United States is a member of the IAEA Board of Governors, which has taken the lead on this issue. We're working closely with Britain, France and Germany as they oppose Iran's nuclear ambitions, and as they insist that Tehran comply with international law. The results of this approach now depend largely on Iran. We also look for Iran to finally deliver on promised reform. The time has arrived for the Iranian regime to listen to the Iranian people, and respect their rights, and join in the movement toward liberty that is taking place all around them.”

China and the problem of the arms embargo that is to be lifted, the biggest problem from the American point of view (not to mention Japan, Taiwan and South Korea) was not mentioned.

Interestingly, though, as President Bush was on his way to Europe, senior Americand and Japanese officials issued a joint statement, that dealt mostly with the problem of North Korea but added that a peaceful Taiwan Strait was one of “the common strategic objectives”.

This was immediately criticized by the Chinese government as meddling in internal Chinese matters but welcomed by the Taiwanese government.

According to the Wall Street Journal Europe, EU officials will go to the United States soon after Bush’s return to try to sell the Americans the idea that lifting the arms embargo will not make a great deal of difference to the situation as the changes that are being made “to the EU’s general code of conduct on arms exports will restrict weapons sales to Beijing at least as much as the embargo”.

Not surprisingly, the newspaper thinks that American officials will remain unconvinced. Presumably, one question they will ask is what precisely is the point of lifting the embargo if the act will make no difference.

Well, where does that leave the so-called transatlantic rift and the more genuine rift within the European Union? Has anything changed with the two American visits?

Not a whole lot, would be the immediate answer. Of course, everybody is incredibly friendly at the moment (give or take the odd grouch from Javier Solana) but the future remains much the same.

America still insists that NATO should remain central to the western alliance while the EU is making noises about wanting to build up separate structures.

America wants a strong Europe as partner in the fight for freedom but that is hardly a revolutionary idea. And America is not saying anything about the new political structure, the European Union. On the contrary, the American President remains convinced that he can deal with many different European leaders and politicians. There was no talk of a single number to call.

What of the member states that have stood on America’s side? They do not seem to have been forgotten. Britain was mentioned separately, despite the fact that at least one reason was to mollify the French.

Tomorrow Blair and Bush will be having a private breakfast and, given the invidious position Britain is beginning to find herself, caught between greater security integration pushed forward by France and Germany and the need and desire to remain a firm American ally, the conversation should be interesting. Will the arms embargo be mentioned that time?

It is also notable that Bush is showing a soft spot for the East Europeans. While Condoleezza Rice travelled round western Europe, Bush was meeting Polish President Alexander Kwasniewski.

The President’s own journey will take him to Slovakia, where there is likely to be some trouble with President Putin, if the paragraph in today’s speech is anything to go by. But East Europeans do not mind if the Russian President is criticized. They feel more powerful, being allied to the West.

President Bush’s most obvious achievement is on the domestic front. He can now say firmly that he has done everything he could to strengthen transatlantic ties, even with countries like France and Germany. And if they show in the near future, as they almost certainly will, that they do not want to do the same, then he can say with some justification that it really is not his fault.

A lesson in objectivity

Courtesy of the England expects blog, an intriguing EU parliament document has reached us, with the somewhat anodyne title: "Notice to members".

It turns out to be a request from the director-general for internal policies, addressed to the chairman of the committee on budgets, asking for a transfer of €7,680,000 from the parliament’s contingency fund to a new category: "Expenditure on information about the draft constitution for Europe".

This money is from the parliament’s funds and is in addition to the €8 million allocated from commission funds for the same purpose, making nearly €16 million available for funding "information" campaigns on the EU constitution.

The precise breakdown of the spending can be seen on the England expects blog, but what intrigues us here is that the justification for the expenditure allocation is cited as a resolution from the EU parliament on 12 January, in which paragraph 10

...reiterates its request that all possible efforts be deployed in order to inform European citizens clearly and objectively about the contents of the constitution…
There can, in fact, be little cause for objection to the EU parliament seeking to inform objectively about the contents of the constitution but, as always, words have their own specific meanings when mouthed by the "colleagues".

The EU parliament's idea of objectivity, it seems is to set up a "communication plan" with the theme: "taking a decision in full knowledge of the facts." The purpose of this "objective" theme is then to "explain to the public how the constitution will benefit them in their everyday lives".

Now, whatever stance you might take on the constitution, no one with any sense could even begin to deny that the document is highly contentious and that the "benefits" are open to dispute. Many would ague that, rather than benefiting the public, it would be to their disadvantage.

Not by any stretch of the imagination, therefore, could any campaign dedicated to extolling the "benefits" of the constitution we considered objective, in any normal sense of the word.

But, as we have wearily observed, the "colleagues" have their own specific meanings for words. One is yet again reminded of Humpty Dumpty, telling Alice: "When I use a word, it means just what I choose it to mean - neither more nor less."

Bush disappoints…

In what might well be an all-purpose headline to describe the whole of the Bush visit to Europe, the Reuters press agency is reporting that the US president has "disappointed European environmental activists" who had hoped for a wider commitment to fighting global warming – i.e, to shadow the Kyoto agreement.

Instead, Bush repeated his call to use technology to fight the effects of rising temperatures. "All of us expressed our views on the Kyoto Protocol," he said, "and now we must work together on the way forward." His view was that: "Emerging technologies, such as hydrogen-powered vehicles, electricity from renewable energy sources (and) clean coal technology will encourage economic growth that is environmentally responsible."

"All of us can use the power of human ingenuity to improve the environment for generations to come," he added.

That clearly was not good enough for Greenpeace "climate expert" Mahi Sideridou. He dismissed Bush’s recipe, declaring: "This is as groundbreaking as saying that Brussels has bad weather and good chocolate," adding, "I can't see any rapprochement. I can see the US line and the EU line. The question is will the EU leaders call him on that or pretend they're happy with what the US is doing."

The EU has also discounted the Bush line, with environment commissioner Stavros Dimas saying that technology advances were good - but not sufficient. "Action is needed now," he said. "Significant reductions in emissions world-wide must be agreed."

However, there is perhaps another cause for disappointment – that anyone expected that Bush was going to change his line. Not least, he has to get his measures on climate change approved by Congress, which is not minded to follow the economy-wrecking line of the EU.

All eyes on President Bush

Today’s New York Times, a left-leaning, Democrat newspaper, predicts that President Bush in his major speech will support European integration and generally express a feeling of friendship for the European Union. That would be the approval the europhiles so ardently crave (because they want to stand up to America and show their own separate identity, of course).

Yet the words the article quotes, presumably from the preliminary copy of the speech the newspaper received do not put it quite like that:

"The alliance of Europe and North America is the main pillar of our security in a new century," Mr. Bush is expected to say at Concert Noble, a 19th-century hall, according to advance excerpts from his text. "Our robust trade is one of the engines of the world economy. Our example of economic and political freedom gives hope to millions who are weary of poverty and oppression."
Hmmm. Not quite the unqualified support for European integration and European unification that some people would like. He will also, presumably, call on Europeans (or, at least, those of them who are sitting on the sidelines and jeering) to join America in helping to build a prosperous and peaceful Iraq and Palestine.

It must be very frustrating for those overgrown teenagers, Chirac, Schröder, Solana et al. Try as they might they cannot get Big Daddy’s approval for their pet project.

Aberration?

Says EU trade commissioner Peter Mandelson on the BBC Today programme, the "hostile US attitude" shown towards European unity during President George W. Bush's first term was an "aberration".

Calling for a "less unequal" relationship between both sides, he has pointed to the United States' "vulnerability" when it goes it alone, shown by Washington's need for European help in Afghanistan and Iraq. "Without allies working with the US in Iraq, the position would be even worse," he said.

Er… as I remember it, the US did not "go it alone". Further, as I recall, the US hostility arose because "Old Europe" sat on its hands and did precisely nothing on Iraq but carp from the edges.

So where is the aberration?

Unimpressed

The Telegraph leader, Spanish supporters of the EU constitution "argued that it was a great honour to be the first country to vote, that the eyes of all Europe were turned toward the Iberian peninsula and that it was the patriotic duty of every Spaniard to cast his ballot lest the country appear stand-offish. Yet the 'Sí', when it came, was terse and reserved: fewer than one in three eligible voters supported the constitution." The leader continues:

What will be especially galling for Spanish Euro-enthusiasts is that there had been frenetic attempts to boost turnout. Footballers and celebrities were wheeled out to read some of the constitution's less turgid articles; advertising space was commandeered across the country; King Juan Carlos trooped dutifully to the polls in an attempt to jolly along his subjects. Indeed, the electoral commission was prompted to complain about the government's tendentious use of public money. Yet, in the event, most voters were unimpressed.
And, indeed, so were we. In short, they blew it.

Ever the optimist

Interesting article in the International Herald Tribune this morning.

Headed, "an EU voice of caution", it has Solana remaining pessimistic on Iraq's future, dismissing any notion that the U.S. decision to invade has been vindicated by the elections.

I suppose it's being so optimistic that keeps him going.

The voters’ revenge

In December last we wrote of the political turmoil in Portugal following the desertion of the prime minister José Manuel Durao Barroso to a more lucrative job in Brussels.

Having bequeathed his former job to his deputy, Pedro Santana Lopes, all kinds of mayhem ensured from his incompetence, with president Jorge Sampaio having to dissolve the government and call a general election.

Now, the voters have extracted their revenge. They have comprehensively trashed Barroso's right-of-centre Social Democratic Party, electing the opposition Socialists.

The new leader, Jose Socrates, has an absolute majority in parliament, with 119 of the 230 seats, giving the Socialists their biggest-ever electoral victory since a revolution overthrew a rightist dictatorship in 1974.

Although it is Lopes who has been consigned to history, there can be no doubt that the electors have also cast a vote of no confidence in Barroso. He cannot now count on any political support in his own country and will be the weaker for it.

How many more times?

In the Observer yesterday, commentator William Pfaff - an American "opinion writer" based in Paris – writes on "why Bush will fail in Europe". As the centrepiece of his argument, he writes:

Current transatlantic conflicts are thus not mere political disagreements. They derive from the nature of the evolving relationship between the US and a European Union that considers itself the sovereign legatee of the European powers of the past, and has a conservative commitment to the preservation of international order.
There we have it: "European Union that considers itself the sovereign legatee of the European powers of the past…". Does that sound like aspirations to be a "superpower", or what? How many more times do people have to say it – this one an ardent Europhile – before the nature of the EU's ambitions finally sinks in to the brains of the British political establishment?

Who cannot understand whom?

There is one thing that the British mandarins have managed to impose on the Eurocracy and that is unthinking and unsupported superciliousness. Mind you, quite often it is the British mandarins in their euro-guise that enunciate this superciliousness.

As our readers will readily recall, every negotiation in "Europe", small or large has been prefaced by a great deal of swanking on the part of the British mandarins, who assumed for themselves and informed anyone who would listen and many who would not, that, of course, British diplomacy was the best and they would run rings round these stupid foreigners.

All warnings notwithstanding, they kept saying it. What happened? Each time those despised foreigners ran rings round the FCO’s finest, Britain was taken to the cleaners and the mandarins were left to use their undoubted verbal ability to twist the truth in order to justify whatever surrender had been effected.

They are still doing it, though this time the swanking is done on behalf of “Europe” or the EU, depending on what they are trying to justify and glorify. This time the people we are going to run rings round are the Americans. Well, it ain’t necessarily so. Those despised Americans are not doing that badly.

Of course, according to the Eurocrats and their ideological gurus, the despised Yanks simply do not understand what this new European foreign policy and “soft” power is about, but listening to President Bush, Secretary of State Rice and sundry others, one gets the feeling that, actually, the problem is that they understand all too well. (Sometimes husbands have the same problem with their wives.)

Take Robert Cooper, for instance. He is described as “one of the chief architects” of the common foreign policy, by Saturday’s International Herald Tribune, though one rather wonders how that squares with the history of many decades during which the idea of a common foreign and security policy was being put together.

No matter. A British civil service mandarin is surely the best person to be a chief architect of a supposedly new policy. According to this

Cooper has helped develop the idea of a voluntary, liberal "imperialism": The European Union persuades countries to adopt its peaceful and democratic ways,not by armed conquest but by offering access to its markets, its aid budgets or even the ultimate prize of membership and entry into its councils.
Well, one could argue that in order to have armed conquest one must have armed power and the European countries are singularly reluctant to pay for it. Or one could argue that the presence of an ever growing number of French troops in the Ivory Coast is not far short of an armed invasion.

This is not what liberal "imperialism" is about. This is the old way of speaking, the way those nasty Yanks talk (well, some of them). Europe will exert its power differently. It will have armies (what are those planned rapid reaction groups are if not armed forces?) but these will be nice armies. Or so I was told by Gerard Batten, UKIP MEP, who sits on the European Parliament’s Defence and Security Sub-committee.

These nice armies will move into trouble spots and police them. Hang on. Isn’t that what old-fashioned armed conquest about? No, no, no. How could you even think of it in such a way? You do not understand, any more than the Americans do. Or so we have it on Mr Cooper’s authority:
It is an amorphous style of foreign policy that seeks to change the world in ways other than through confrontation or conflict. It is a philosophy, as Bush may discover during his visit, that is at odds with U.S. thinking, at least in its current neoconservative incarnation.
Well, he may. Then again, he may discover, or, indeed, has already discovered that:
...in the late 1990s, EU countries agreed to share some aspects of defense. Last year, they set up a European Defense Agency to coordinate aspects such as procurement.

They are developing "battlegroups" of 1,500 soldiers that the EU can send quickly into nearby trouble spots. Brussels has already sent small forces into Congo and Macedonia. Last autumn, it began its biggest military operation yet when 7,000 troops wearing blue EU armbands took over from NATO soldiers in Bosnia.
Hmm. No wonder the Yanks are confused. This sounds awfully like old-fashioned power display, especially as only a very odd knowledge of geography would describe Congo as being a "nearby trouble spot". And while we are on the subject what precisely did those 800 soldiers achieve in DR Congo?

Then there is the unfortunate fact that the 7,000 troops were not precisely EU troops, but NATO ones (including Turkish and Canadian ones) who changed arm bands and insignia. Again, the purpose of that change-over does not seem to be all that novel in concept – power strutting of the traditional kind.

What Mr Cooper is advocating and outlining to possibly credulous journalists is our old friend "soft power", invented and elaborated, I am sorry to say, by American academics and writers like Andrew Moravchik and Jeremy Rifkin.

The original idea of the common foreign and security policy was not really anything very new: the defence of member states was to be integrated to give real power to the newly emerging state, the European Union.

That sort of thing needs investment and the member states were not prepared to put real money in.

It needs an agreement to integrate the forces and create a genuinely single policy and the member states had no intention of doing that.

Finally, it needs some commonality of interest but despite much talk of the need for “Europe” to speak with a single strong voice, nobody has ever been able to define what that single strong voice was to say, apart from that it should be the opposite of what America is saying.

The moment there was a real crisis, the Iraqi war, all pretence at a common policy disappeared. It is not so much a transatlantic rift that the war caused but a rift within the European Union and what Barroso may well be hoping from President Bush’s visit is that by making emollient noises towards France and Germany who had led the opposition to the war, Bush will actually help to heal the rift within the Union.

How these people imagine that they can be America’s equal rival when all their thoughts and hopes revolve round America remains a mystery.

Faced with all these problems of creating real alternative power (and let us recall that the European Union has helped to shackle the economies of the member states, thus making it impossible for them to compete with America or, for that matter, the Asian countries in a way that would make perfect sense) it was necessary to create an alternative scenario; one in which "Europe" is seen to be achieving much while achieving next to nothing.

Europeans will present a unified front on lifting the arms embargo on China,disarming a nuclear Iran diplomatically and implementing the Kyoto accord,issues that the entire EU supports but that Washington opposes.

In his analysis, Cooper describes the EU countries as post-modern states that have pooled sovereignty and rely on mutual interference in one another's affairs.They no longer think of security in exclusively military terms, and this philosophy is carried over into the EU's external policy.

The aim of that policy for the EU, he argues, should be to foster a "circle of friends" around its borders. The tool it uses to attract these friends is the prospect of closer ties and a share in the EU's prosperity and political stability. "We have enormous power of attraction," Cloos said.

This lure of membership brought Mediterranean countries such as Spain into the Western European fold and converted most of the former Warsaw Pact countries into well-functioning democracies.

Now it is having the same effect on Turkey and Ukraine as they bolster democracy and get closer to EU membership.
This does not seem all that difficult to understand, particularly as it has all been repeated many times. The problem is to pretend that it makes sense or has any logic behind it.

For example, according to the doctrine of "soft power", the EU waves its non-military magic to bring countries to the wonderful concepts of freedom and democracy, as well as liberal capitalism.

The first thing one must say about that is that the EU is not a democracy but a managerial state, whose ruling elite is not accountable to anyone in its legislating and regulating activity.

Nor is it a liberal capitalist entity, having entirely forsaken the very concept of a free market in favour of a tightly controlled and regulated structure.

Then we come to the actual substance of what it is the Europeans are going to say to Bush in their "shared voice". The first of these points is the lifting of the arms embargo on China.

How exactly has the sale of arms to a highly belligerent country, whose militarism is threatening to upset the security balance of East Asia, who actively menaces the West’s democratic allies and whose human rights record is among the worst, become a matter of pride; a showpiece of "soft power" that involves countries in a network of democracies?

Does Mr Cooper seriously believe that China will somehow throw off its present political habits as it buys some arms from European manufacturers, see the light and become a democratic, liberal country? Surely not. He is after all one of our highly educated brilliant mandarins.

The other two contentious issues are slightly less ridiculous but not much. We have written much on Iran and I shall, therefore, merely recapitulate.

The United States does not oppose peaceful solution. On the contrary, Secretary of State Rice pronounced herself to be in favour of the Anglo-Franco-German initiative. It is just Iran should start pulling its weight, otherwise the matter should be taken to the United Nations Security Council.

Precisely why do Britain, France and Germany object to taking the issue to the UN Security Council? Normally, they jump up and down with excitement when the words are mentioned. Could it be that they are trying to use the issue of Iran and nuclear power to display that much vaunted but so far unnoticed in real life, “European” power?

Are they playing the same game they were playing at the beginning of the Yugoslav war, which was described as a European problem to be solved by Europeans? We know what happened there. Ten years of ferocious fighting, thousands of people killed, many more dispossessed, and NATO, led by the Americans had to move in to impose some kind of order.

It is, furthermore, time to stop arguing that it was the beneficent impact of the EU that brought democracy to Spain, Portugal and then the East European countries. All these countries became democracies of their own will.

Indeed, as the East Europeans were making colossal efforts to destroy the communist system and its remnants, the European Union sat around humming and haing and wondering whom to take in. They refused to help by opening trade and when some of the countries formed a potentially useful Central European Free Trade Area (CEFTA), the EU moved in swiftly to destroy it.

As the East Europeans joined the EU after jumping through many hoops they found that many of their reforms have had to be reversed in economic and political terms. "Soft power", in this case, has been destructive to the new liberal order.

We have seen the EU's helplessness and uselessness in Ukraine, when Solana ran around trying to talk to everyone, please everyone and impose stability when the Ukrainians wanted freedom and transparency.

Ukraine is not being invited into the club, for fear of offending Russia. Turkey is being put off for fear of offending just about everybody, even Colonel Gaddafi. This kow-towing to the West’s enemies, inability to agree on any principles and being friendly with every dictator around may be soft but it is hardly powerful.

It is certainly anti-American. And, I am sad to say, the American administration and its advisers, are beginning to understand this all too well.

Sunday, February 20, 2005

The people have spoken... (not)

Provisional results in from the Spanish referendum give 79 percent to the "yes" campaign, with 16 percent voting "no" – according to an exit poll carried out by state television. Interestingly, about five percent of votes cast were blank

Hailed as an "overwhelming victory", the turnout paints a different picture, estimated at 41.5 percent. That means that just under a third of Spain's 35 million voters endorsed the constitution.

For Spanish prime minister José Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, this result is something of a rebuff. He had staked his reputation on a high turnout, looking for at least fifty percent to make the vote credible.

In fact, at four percentage points less than the turnout at the June Euro-elections, Zapatero's credibility has not exactly improved, especially as his pre-poll speech verged on the hysterical when he appealed to voters to participate with the words:

Today we are taking a decision of huge importance for the future of a united Europe. A very important decision for Spain, for its future and well-being.
Mindful of the first Article (I-1) of the constitution, which states: "Reflecting the will of the citizens and states of Europe to build a common future…", it rather looks as though the Zapatero was willing but two thirds of the people went AWOL.

The UK is "full of hate"

That is according to the fragrant Margot Wallström, commissioner for truth and reconcilliation, the laments of whom are recorded in The Sunday Telegraph today.

The fair commissioner, who is responsible for pushing through the controversial European constitution, has likened her task to "dressing Frankenstein's monster".

These, apparently, are her first public remarks about a job that will keep her busy for the next 18 months. She told a press conference in Brussels that the British would prove particularly sceptical. "The UK is filled with hatred towards the EU institutions," she said. "But I consider this 'mission irresistible', not 'mission impossible'."

Certainly, Margot has taken a brave step in that mission, starting her own Blog (link above), but she has not exactly endeared herself to the Eurosceptic community by telling the BBC about the EU constitution in terms for, "From a policy content point of view, the changes are minor, they are really not very important." This is redolent of Peter Hain – the former European minister – claiming that the EU constitution was "a tidying up exercise".

With some 63 additional areas of qualified majority voting being introduced in the constitution, the creation of a defence alliance, imposing more rigorous obligations on member states than the Nato Treaty, and establishing an EU "foreign minister", the changes can hardly be described as "minor".

Yet, according to the Telegraph, Mrs Wallström believes that that "winning minds" is all about communication. "Seven out of 10 people feel they know nothing or very little about Europe," she says. "And even more know nothing about the constitution."

If they are relying on this particular commissioner for their information, however, people are going to remain ignorant – which is perhaps what advocates of the EU really want. For, while the commission professes to rely on research that suggests that better-informed citizens are more likely to say "yes" in a referendum, better constructed research carried out in the UK actually suggests the opposite. The better informed people are, the more likely they are to dislike the EU.

On that basis, contrary to perceived wisdom, perhaps the real reason why "the UK is filled with hatred towards the EU institutions" is because we are actually better informed about what they do than the EU polls would have us believe.

In any event, if the blessed Margot feels that adding further lies to the charge sheet of institutions that already have a reputation for mendacity is the answer to "winning minds", she may well find that "dressing Frankenstein's monster" is a breeze, compared with her day job.

A profound impact on our lives

One really does wonder where the Sunday Times has been for the last year, judging from its news piece in today’s edition. With blithe serenity, under the headline "Chinese arms put pressure on Blair", Tony Allen-Mills, their Washington correspondent reports that:

The role of Tony Blair as President George W Bush's best friend in Europe has come under unexpected strain amid mounting American concern over a military build-up in China.
Methinks the paper's accountants had better check the expense accounts submitted by Mr Allen-Mills because if this egregious hack thinks that the China issue is causing "unexpected" strain, then he clearly has not been in Washington. And, from that false start, Allen-Mills digs himself further in the mire, suggesting that the:

...deepening row over a European Union proposal to lift a 16-year-old arms embargo on Beijing threatens to undermine the prime minister's efforts to encourage transatlantic reconciliation during the president’s fence-mending visit to Brussels and Germany this week.
As this Blog has attested many times, we can discern no such effort on the part of Blair. Far from standing resolutely by the original UK policy of resisting the lifting of the embargo, his government has cravenly capitulated under Franco-German pressure, aligning the UK with the EU, hoping that at the same time he can keep pally with his mate Bush.

Thus, as we observed a mere two weeks ago, he is not so much working to encourage reconciliation as ducking the issues.

However, at least we must commend the Sunday Times for finally waking up to the idea that "Washington is concerned that ending the embargo will enable China to obtain sensitive military technologies that may be used against American aircraft carriers if a war breaks out over Chinese claims to Taiwan."

Says, the Times, "a sudden increase in US-Chinese tension last week forced the arms embargo issue to the top of the president's European agenda. Beijing reacted furiously after Porter Goss, director of the CIA, warned that "improved Chinese capabilities threaten US forces in the region."

This was reported in detail in the Washington Times last Friday – and in other US papers, but given scant attention in the UK media.

The Washington Times report focused on Goss’s presentation to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence last Wednesday, when he told Senators that "China continues to develop more robust, survivable nuclear-armed missiles, as well as conventional capabilities for use in regional conflict."

Vice Adm. Lowell Jacoby, director of the Defence Intelligence Agency, also gave prepared testimony to the panel, saying that China is adding numbers and more capable ballistic missiles to its arsenal to "improve their survivability and war-fighting capabilities, enhance their coercion and deterrence value, and overcome ballistic missile defence systems."

An indication of how impotent Blair has now become though, is indicated by the Sunday Times comment that: "Bush is expected to urge the prime minister to lobby for a reversal of the European plan when the two men meet for a private breakfast in Brussels on Tuesday." It then adds, "But European officials said that Blair had little chance of halting an initiative that was supported by both France and Germany."

The subject is the picked up by the Times leader, headed: "An Atlantic divide".

The paper notes that "fundamental issues divide the United States and continental Europe, and there is little indication that a few days of glad handing will iron them out", arguing that "at the heart of this rift is the role that both continents see for each other in the early part of the 21st century."

Nevertheless, says The Times, "there is thus some cause for optimism. Both continents are champions of democracy and there is always hope that France and Germany may adopt a more supportive role of a resurgent United States."

That may be an unrealistic expectation. As per the Booker column today, the EU is determined to forge its own military identity and is rushing ahead with technical integration, which in turn is closing down strategic choices.

The alternative, concludes the Times, "is a rift that is in the interests of neither Europeans nor Americans, and one that could have a profound impact on our lives."

It is thus left to The Scotsman to make the real point about Blair's craven surrender to the EU on China:

Britain, with the experience of having our ships sunk by French-supplied Exocet missiles in the Falklands War, should be leading opposition to this anti-democratic proposal. But Tony Blair, who could have vetoed the lifting of the embargo, has failed to do so, in his anxiety to mend fences with the European integrationists. In the same mood of desperate appeasement he has signed the European constitution, with its provisions for a European foreign policy, inimical to America.
This, flaccid conformity, says the Scotsman, "threatens the Atlantic alliance... An ally is only as good as his most recent supportive act. If the Prime Minister goes with the European flow, he risks squandering his hard-won credit with the US over Iraq."

That is the issue. But the Times is right on one thing. It could have a profound impact on our lives.

Booker

The Booker column today picks up on the from yesterday’s Bush interview in the Telegraph, focusing on the defence issue.

He also refers to a letter in the Telegraph last week, from Nicholas Soames, the Tory defence spokesman, which highlighted the chaos of Britain's defence procurement. Soames cites the strange paralysis that seems to have overcome plans to provide the Navy with two super-carriers, and the Army with the £6 billion Future Rapid Effect System (Fres).

However, says Booker, “He cannot have anticipated the startling interview that George Bush gave to the newspaper yesterday, in which the President's stark warning of the crisis threatening Nato, through the EU's bid to set up an autonomous defence identity, set Mr Soames's concerns in a very much wider and clearer perspective.”

Booker sees the clues as to the real story behind the President's warning in the speech made by Nick Witney in Madrid last Monday, a man whose task is to co-ordinate the building of an autonomous EU defence identity, quite separate from both the US and Nato. He continues:

What particularly alarms Washington is the way that this is being set up in deliberate defiance of the US, not least in the building of closer links with China. The US fiercely opposes the EU's wish to lift the embargo on arms sales to China, and its grant to China of a 20 per cent share in Galileo, the EU satellite navigation system which could enable the armed forces of the EU and China to operate independently of America's GPS system.

The man most put on the spot by this rivalry is Tony Blair. While France and Germany may be the keenest to build up an independent defence identity for the EU (as Chancellor Schröder made clear last week in a speech delivered in front of a disconcerted Donald Rumsfeld), the enthusiastic support of senior people at the MoD is equally significant, as reflected in Mr Witney's appointment to run the new agency.

If Mr Soames saw the speed at which all this is moving, he would understand that Fres is supposed to be an EU-wide system, directed via Galileo – which will render British forces incapable of operating alongside the Americans. He would also realise that the delay of those super-carriers is caused by their proposed key role in the EU's Rapid Reaction Force.

Mr Blair may be keen to stay in with his friend Mr Bush. But he is rapidly being tugged by his EU partners and British officials to the point where he will have to choose between Nato and the EU, and sever that "special relationship" forever.

Already the Pentagon is refusing to release to Britain the electronic codes without which the Anglo-US joint strike fighter will be unable to fly. The disastrous prospect is that, in the name of "European integration", we will produce such a shambles that we will have no defence forces worth the name.
This is an interesting perspective. On this Blog, we have often referred to the dilemma facing Blair in having to chose between the EU and the US, but Booker suggests that we are so reliant on the US that, if we fall into the EU sphere, we may end up with seriously depleted forces, without the capability to act at all.

Booker runs two other EU-related stories, that are worth a look. We’ll do an analysis of them later today in a separate post.

Saturday, February 19, 2005

Chirac in a panic

No, the police have not raided his home to gather more evidence of his nefarious crimes – more's the pity.

What is troubling l’escroc this time, according to The Independent, is that opinion polls in France are showing a draining of support for the EU constitution

Chirac is thus said to be considering bringing forward the referendum from early or mid-June to 22 May, on the basis that, the longer he leaves it, the worse the result will be.

Needless to say, the Elysée Palace is denying anything so vulgar as a panicking president, saying that a referendum "could take place in May, just as well as June". Pro-government members of parliament are saying that June is a "bad month" for elections in France because it was littered with public holidays.

The erosion of support for the constitution does not seem to be the result of the population's increased familiarity with the document or the issues. Rather, the question has become infected by other issues, ranging from Turkish membership of the EU to the unpopularity of prime minister Raffarin's centre-right government.

However, there is a distortion in the campaign in that the "no" campaign has been in full swing for several weeks; the "yes" campaign has not begun. How this might be affecting polls had not been recorded.

Meanwhile, the Senate, the upper house, has given its first reading to a change in the French constitution, allowing the referendum to go ahead. It has been passed by the National Assembly, and Chirac is expected to announce this coming week the date of a meeting of both houses to amend the constitution. This would lift one of the remaining obstacles to a referendum, leaving only the logistics of the poll to be settled.

Given the volatility of the French electorate, however, nothing can be read into the polls at this time, although there are a steady stream of reports suggesting that it is not only Raffarin but Chirac who is becoming seriously unpopular.

This, combined with a reluctance of the Socialists to do Chirac's dirty work for him again, means that there is beginning to be a real possibility that the French people will ditch the constitution, in which case it would be dead in the water. No wonder Chirac is panicking.

Bush on Europe and the EU constitution

Those looking to Bush for support of the EU constitution, - having been misled by the FT’s version of Condoleezza Rice’s press conference in Luxembourg – will find no comfort from his interview in the Telegraph today.

In response to questioning on his views on the constitution, he gave the following guarded reply:

Every time I meet the European leaders, I ask them how it's going, because I'm fascinated by the political integration. But I'm also wise enough not to comment about the European constitution, since I don't have anything to do about it – it's kind of a long answer to say, no, I'm not going to comment [laughter].

I've always been fascinated to see how the British culture and the French culture and the sovereignty of the nations, long-standing traditional sovereignty, can be integrated into a larger whole in a modern era. Progress is being made and I'm hopeful it works, because I think if we are united by alliance, by values in our alliance, one should not fear a strong partner, one should welcome a strong partner, because the values are long-lasting and will endure.
Some may feel that there is a crumb of comfort in the second paragraph, especially his phrasing: "Progress is being made and I'm hopeful it works", but this is neither a specific nor a ringing endorsement of the constitution.

Although he will undoubtedly be under considerable pressure next week to deliver supportive statement on the constitution, Bush's response in this interview gives the clue as to how he will respond.

Basically, it will be studied neutrality. The constitution is, after all, an internal affair for EU member states. And with referendums under way, it would be highly inappropriate for a US president to venture an opinion.

A question that deserves an answer

That speech from Schröder at the Munich security conference was bound to cause trouble, and indeed it has.

Exploding onto the front page of the The Telegraph is Bush's unequivocal rejection of "moves to boost EU military might" with the American president saying that there was no need for the Franco-German goal of forming an alternative superpower.

This was in an interview with The Daily Telegraph, his first with a British newspaper since his re-election last year. As did Rumsfeld at the time when the Schröder speech was read out, Bush has "pointedly rejected" the call by the German chancellor for a "high-level commission" to review the role of Nato, outside the framework of the Nato forum.

Bush has reaffirmed the importance of the North Atlantic treaty, saying that it "is a very important relationship as far as the United States is concerned. It is one that has worked in the past and will work in the future just so long as there is that strong commitment to Nato."

Bush also questions the idea of creating a unified Europe to balance America. "Why, when in fact we share values and goals?", he asks. "As opposed to counter-balancing each other, why don't we view this as a moment when we can move in a concerted fashion to achieve those goals?"

That rather shoots the fox, which we pointed up in our earlier post where, as was evident from the speech of Nick Witney, chief executive of the European Defence Agency, the talk was not of co-operation with the US through Nato but of "competition".

Just how far this has gone is highlighted by a piece by DefenseNews which yesterday reported that the EDA had taken another important organisational step in selecting an official to chair meetings of its national armaments directors. He will be Eero Lavonen - currently Finland's national armaments director – who will hold the post until at least mid-2006.

This means, says DefenseNews, that many of Europe's national arms chiefs will be meeting in two different forums in Europe: one for the European Union and one for Nato.

Crucially, Lavonen's task will be to work with national armaments directors and defence research directors in order to promote armaments co-operation and to co-ordinate development of defence capabilities for the planned 60,0000-strong EU rapid reaction force.

Responding to this development, a defence industry insider said, "It's going to be an interesting ballgame between Nato meetings and the EDA's, and I've got my money on the latter."

There can be no question now that the EU is powering ahead with its own defence identity. However, it is also clear that, with Bush's intervention, the divergence between support for Nato and developing an independent EU military capability has become an important fault line in the relationship between European states and the US.

To an extent also, it clarifies the "mood music" as Bush has now drawn the line. What a difference this makes from the woolly self-deception (one assumes it's self-deception) of UK defence secretary Hoon, who is struggling to convince MPs and the nations that all the EU defence initiatives are to be carried out within the framework of Nato.

That much was evident from Hoon’s speech to the House of Commons Standing Committee in June last year, when he was asking Parliament to approve the setting-up of the EDA. "The government are confident," he said, "that the agency will play a key role in improving the delivery of future European military capabilities. That is a key issue not only for European security and defence policy but for Nato."

It has taken a US president to show up the deception here. The EDA is a competitor to Nato, in effect the embryonic administrative and planning headquarters of a European Army. And Bush's question deserves an answer: "why don't we view this as a moment when we can move in a concerted fashion to achieve those goals?"

Unfortunate, but there it is

Speaking in Slovakia, Gianfranco Fini, Italian Foreign Minister referred to the Lower House of the Italian parliament voting out Article 4 of the Bill to introduce the European Arrest Warrant into Italian law.

He said that such incidents should be avoided. Quite right Signor Fini. Perhaps, to be on the safe side, one should just avoid parliamentary votes. I mean you never know which way they will go.

One wonders what the Slovak media made of it all.

This living in a bubble is getting out of hand

The egregious Mark Leonard is at it again. He is about to publish a new pamphlet, co-authored with Andrew Small and Martin Rose.

Entitled Public Diplomacy in the ‘Age of Schisms’, it is due out in March but I have received a prepublication blurb for it. I cannot resist sharing it with our readers:

“The damage done to Britain's world image by the Iraq war and the emergence of new global schisms necessitates a new strategy for British public diplomacy, according to the pamphlet authors. [sic] They argue that Britain must rethink the way it communicates with international publics to prevent a gap emerging between its own perception of itself as a principled power committed to multilateralism and how other nations view it.”
Fascinating. These people should get out more. (And learn about the possessive case.) Exactly, why do they think that Britain’s participation in the liberation of Iraq and contribution to the first democratic election in that country’s history should have harmed her image?

What might seriously harm that image would be getting enmeshed in the EU’s common foreign policy, which consists of being extremely chummy with Fidel Castro and lifting the arms embargo on China, not to mention the never-ending and laughable one-sided negotiations with the Mullahs of Iran.

Then there is the communication with international publics. What on earth are they? Do they mean the international great and the good, NGOs, media and tranzis? Then why don’t they say so? How can you have an international public? A public exists within a certain social and political structure and in a very large part of the world it does not exist at all, since the structures of many states militate against that.

There is, of course, a public emerging in the Middle East, largely thanks to various actions by the coalition led by the United States, in which Britain has taken a strong and active part.

That is principled activity. Being committed to multilateralism is supporting the corrupt and self-serving international and transnational bureaucracy of such wonderfully principled organizations as the United Nations, now embroiled in numerous scandals or the NGOs, whose collective behaviour after the tsunami has called their very existence into question.

I do not suppose Mr Leonard is interested in my advice but if he were, I should tell him to get out more. Living in a bubble is bad for one’s mental faculties.

The Europe minister is telling porkies

On the World Tonight BBC radio news, yesterday evening, the egregious Denis Macshame was wheeled on to explain what the British government could learn from the Spanish referendum.

The particular "hook" was the news that some 80 percent or more of Spaniards professed ignorance of the EU constitution yet were still prepared to vote for it. MacShame was asked whether "ignorance is bliss". In view of the government's rejection of commission funding for information on the constitution, it was put to him that he was secretly pleased with the "status quo" on the basis that, in the UK, the more people found out about the constitution, the less they would like it.

As one might expect, MacShame went immediately into denial mode, proclaiming that his "big task" was to get rid of the "myths and lies". Even today, he declared, there had been a claim that British embassies were to be closed down and replaced with EU representation offices.

Without saying so, he was referring to a story in The Sun today, together with its editorial.

But, while MacShame was quick to denounce it as “completely untrue”, what he did not say was that this had come from Spanish prime minister José Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, who “blew the lid on the plan in a radio interview”, saying: “We will undoubtedly see European embassies in the world, not ones from each country, with European diplomats and a European foreign service.”

He also said that Britain and France would also lose their voices in NATO and their seats on the UN Security Council, Adding that: "We will see Europe with a single voice in security matters. We will have a single European voice within NATO. We want more European unity."

That summarily dispensed with, without so much as a whimper from his interviewer, MacShame went gaily on to state that he now had the chance to get the "facts" of Europe out to the British public. When they see a more powerful parliament and when they see that the EU can only do what its member states tell it to do, he said, they would be in favour of the constitution.

Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear, the Europe minister is telling porkies again. Perhaps he should read our myths.

And, by the way, although the government may be turning down commission money, that does not mean that its money is not flowing into the British "yes" campaign. According to the piece linked above (from The Times), the commission is spending more than €1 million a year on pan-European federalist campaign groups and think-tanks that have members in Britain or influence debate here.

Recipients last year have included Hull University, which got €10,551, Liverpool Hope University College, with €25,000, to help school pupils and students to find out about the constitution, the Foreign Policy Centre, which was given €38,318 for a conference on the constitution last July, the Institute for Citizenship in London, which got and €48,601 to hold a series of seminars on it.

Other beneficiaries were the International European Movement, which got €450,000, the Union of European Federalists, €120,000, Friends of Europe €100,000, the Young European Federalists €35,000, the Centre for European Policy Studies €150,000 and European Policy Centre €150,000.

The Federal Trust, a British think-tank, was paid €42,005 to promote the enlargement of the EU, including the production of 100,000 "information" cards. Its advisory board includes Andrew Adonis, Blair’s policy adviser.

How appropriate was UKIP MEP Jeffrey Titford’s letter to the Times at the end of last month about the lack of fairness, noting that: "Those of us who are campaigning for a 'no' vote don't have anything like these resources to spend so far in advance of the referendum."

It would help even up the odds, though, if MacShame and his FCO cronies stopped lying, but that would be too much to hope for.

Friday, February 18, 2005

Is the Commissioner telling porkies?

On the BBC website today is an analysis by Oana Lungescu, the BBC Brussels correspondent, on "EU constitution hurdles".

The text of Lungescu’s commentary need not detain you long, as you can get the flavour from the strap which declares: "The European Union is on the verge of launching an unprecedented exercise in public consultation."

But what is interesting about the piece is an interview with the Margot Wallström, whom Lungescu describes as being "in charge of selling the blueprint to the European public." Says the fragrant Margot:

I think one of the more important changes is that it establishes the rights that you have as a citizen of the EU, the fundamental rights that are very, very important," she says. So I think that from a symbolic point of view, it's a fundamental change and it establishes the common values for the EU. From a policy content point of view, the changes are minor, they are really not very important.
Some of our readers might like to visit Margot’s Blog and tell her why she is wrong.

A mixed blessing

Further reading of the Compact between the United States and Europe, which we reported in our earlier posting, reveals that the authors think the EU should train 5,000 Iraqi senior civil servants, as part of its contribution to the country's reconstruction.

This is an interesting proposition, but hasn't Iraq suffered enough?

Leaves from the EU pensions war

Our readers will recall that in a previous posting I referred to a long-standing debate, not to say war in the House of Lords over the question of pensions for former Commissioners and whether these should be declared.

Here is an interesting story from that war. On September 8, 2003 Lord Pearson of Rannoch asked

“Whether, in the light of current practice concerning declarations of interest,any noble Lord who has been, or is, in receipt of any emolument or pension from the European Union or from any organisation funded by the European Union should declare it when speaking in debate involving the United Kingdom's relationship with the European Union.”
He was given a somewhat frosty and rather disingenuous response. According Lord Williams of Mostyn, then the Lord President of the Council, “members must declare any interest which is relevant to the matter under discussion”.

Right, so a large pension from the European Union is not relevant to any debate or discussion about the European Union. I wonder whether the same would apply to a debate, let us say, about British Airways or IBM. No? I thought not.

You see, what you do not understand is that

“the test of relevance is whether it might reasonably be thought by the public to affect the way in which Members discharge their parliamentary duties”.
Naturally, the public would never dream of such a ridiculous notion that Lord Kinnock’s opinions in a debate on the European Union (part of his parliamentary duties) could be at all affected by a pension of £76,000 or more a year. How could you even suggest such a thing?

In any case, surely it is the public and other members of the House of Lords who should decide whether they might reasonably think that certain interests can affect a Noble Lord’s judgement.

When Lord Pearson persevered, pointing out that Commissioners and their highly paid minions have to promise to owe allegiance to the European Union, forsaking all other allegiances, such as that to their own country and this might actually have some implication for their opinions on the said European Union.

Upon him fell the awful wrath of Lord Richard, a former Commissioner and a man who lives up to the unflattering description of having to occupy two or three seats, particularly after a good lunch.

Lord Richard thundered:

“My Lords, having listened to the noble Lord, Lord Pearson of Rannoch, for some years now, I do not think that I have ever heard such a load of nonsense from his lips as I just did. The idea that there is some residual allegiance in me to the Commission as opposed to doing my job here in this House is, frankly,absolute nonsense. I shall say only one thing in relation to the Question as opposed to the nonsense from the noble Lord.

Presumably if this applies to the Commissioners, it will apply to everyone else. Everyone in this House, therefore, will have to declare whether they have a pension and, if so, what is the basis of that pension; and indeed whether they still owe allegiance to the body paying the pension. That would be a very interesting development.”
Dear me. His lordship was getting a little too agitated. On the whole people do declare when they receive pensions, particularly large pensions from their former employers.

But as Lord Pearson has pointed out, the EU pension comes into a category all of its own. The Staff Regulations of the EU do, as it happens, require good behaviour from all their present and former employees, as Lord Pearson correctly pointed out:
“Would it not be a good idea for the Government and those involved in the declarations of interest in this House to read the staff regulations of the European Union: Title II, Articles 11, 12 and 16; and in Title VI, which refers to disciplinary measures, Article 86.1 and 86.2, and particularly paragraph (g), which confirms exactly what I have said about letting the side down and losing your pension?”
Indeed, there is evidence that those who did not behave well, such as Bernard Connolly, Marta Andreasen and Paul van Buitenen, were at various times threatened with deprivation of pension rights if they did not recant, preferably publicly.

We await further developments in this interesting battle.

France and America

What fun it is to follow up some of the links supplied by our readers. Well, some of them, anyway. Otherwise I would not have found this review published by The Claremont Institute of what seems to be a fascinating and hard-hitting book by Kenneth R. Timmerman, The France of Jacques Chirac (a catchy title).

It is absolutely wonderful to read a review, which starts with the words:

“As a young boy during and after World War I, I read everything I could find about the romantically named Lafayette Escadrille, the young Americans who became fighter pilots to help France in her war against Wilhelmine Germany. But living and thinking through the 20th and into the 21st century, I find myself torn between my boyish love for France and its culture and my despair over what France has become.”
Wow! Who is this amazing person? He is Arnold Beichman, a man who has done many things and been in the forefront of the fight for freedom in America all his life, since his days in the unions where he struggled, by the side of the legendary Dave Dubinsky, to keep the American labor unions free of communist control.

He has been a journalist, a writer, an academic. The one thing he has never been is mealy-mouthed and this review proves it.

Mr Beichman lists some of the problems there are with France and its foreign policy:
“It was Chirac who made Saddam Hussein the power he became in the Middle East. It was the French nuclear weapons establishment that had almost finished building a nuclear facility at Osirak, known derisively as O'Chirac, near Baghdad, when in 1981 Israel bombed it to rubble. Chirac built Osirak for Saddam even though in a 1975 interview Saddam had admitted: "The agreement with France is the first concrete step toward the production of the Arab atomic weapon."“
And he lists from Timmerman’s book some, just some of the examples of French enmity towards and distrust of the United States, a country about which the French ought to feel friendly.
“Timmerman's book of revelations is an eye-opener. Even in the days of the socialist François Mitterand, he argues, France looked upon the U.S. as a dangerous rival. That fear of the U.S. increased when the Soviet Union fell: no more need for American protection against the Bolsheviks. In 1991, L'Express revealed that between 1987 and 1989 French intelligence had planted moles in the French offices of IBM, Texas Instruments, and Corning Glass to steal economic and industrial secrets on behalf of French state-owned enterprises. An NBC documentary discovered that French airlines regularly planted microphones in the seats of their first-class compartment, to record conversations of U.S. businessmen.”
Yup, that’s the French. The only wonder is that anyone is surprised. And, in the end, it would not matter but for two things. The first is that, while the Americans are getting every more annoyed and are beginning to exclude France from various top level military negotiations and projects,
“… U.S. nuclear laboratories are still helping the French, the U.S. is still subsidizing the French nuclear weapons establishment, and, most unbelievable of all, the Bush Administration is offering Chirac the secrets of the U.S. national missile defense.”
This last one may well have stopped since the book was written, not least because of the push to lift the arms embargo on China.

The second problem, which Mr Beichman does not mention, but needs to be taken into account is that France is putting into action a long-cherished plan to increase her own influence through an integrated Europe. Of course, this is not proving to be as easy as expected. For instance, as we have noted before, the new East European members are a little restive at the determinedly anti-American tenor of “European” foreign policy and the tendency to get chummy with unpleasant dictators.

There is a clear tendency, however, to talk of “European opinion” when it is French opinion that is meant. One hopes that President Bush will have advisers telling him that firstly, the French do not represent Europeans and, secondly, the European Union as pushed forward by France and its hangers on, is an anti-American institution. At the same time there are very many Europeans who recognize that mindless anti-Americanism is not the way forward. But who will listen to those Europeans, the ones who really are of Europe?

Italians block European arrest warrant

While Britain engages in its never-ending and never-changing fight about what was and what was not meant by a particular set of weasel-words that appeared to give the government and opt-out but actually did not, the Italian parliament has cheerfully blocked the Bill that was going to put the European arrest warrant into Italian law.

Italy is the last country to hold out against the European arrest warrant that lists 32 different crimes, including the hard-to-define one of xenophobia, that will do away what is often described as the cumbersome system of extradition.

Well, of course, it depends on how you look at it. Cumbersomeness may be a nuisance or it may be quite useful. Anyone who cherishes the idea of freedom has to oppose the very idea of an "efficient government", whatever that may be. Actually, the most oppressive governments remain inefficient, as they have to waste so much time, money and energy on the structure of oppression.

Extradition treaties with all the paraphernalia of double jeopardy and having to go through various courts and having to prove grounds for the request seem like an extremely bad idea. Until you look at the opposite: people being whisked off to other countries on dubious grounds, accused of crimes that may or may not be acknowledged as crimes in their own country.

It says something about the British government that this was one of the first countries to sign up to the European arrest warrant and it says something about the British media that the whole problem was forgotten in no time at all.

But the Italians are holding out. A combination of left-wing opposition to the Bill and Northern League opposition to the warrant as a whole voted it down, disliking Article 4 that diminishes if not completely destroys the role of the national Justice Minister.

There have been some exchanges between the unexpected allies, each accusing the other of hypocrisy and bad attitude but the fact remains that discussion of the Bill will have to be resumed next week.

A wake-up call

Congratulations to England expects for a superb "spot".

It notes an "honest admission" from France about the effects of passing the European Constitution”, recording that Noel Mamère, a leading French Green politician and "yes" campaigner, was speaking on Radio France’s main morning news bulletin on Monday. He was heard to say:

The good thing about the European Constitution is that with it the United Kingdom will not be able to support the United States in a future Iraq.
This is, of course, only part of the picture, and the EU is by no means reliant on the constitution to achieve this end. As we have warned many times on this Blog, and especially in this posting the rush to defence integration is partly aimed at preventing UK armed forces from acting either independently or alongside the US, effectively neutralising the UK's practical support for the US.

Mamère's comments, therefore, should be taken as a wake-up call, except that one wonders what it will take to shake up our political leaders from what seems more like a coma than sleep.

Fault lines

Despite the tendency to over-use the word, there can be no doubt that the forthcoming visit of George W. Bush to Europe will be an historic occasion, perhaps of the same order of Kennedy’s visit in 1963 when he stood on the Rudolph Wilde Platz and declared "Ich bin ein Berliner".

(Incidentally, if anyone wants to listen to a recording of that speech, you can download it from the JFK site.)

This may be over-egging the importance for the events to come but there can be no dispute that Bush's visit will set the tone for US-European relations for much of the presidential term. And, with reconciliation in the air, expectations are high.

Thus it is that The Independent today has Barroso in focus. According to the paper, he "sings the praises of Bush to sceptical Europeans", telling everyone – or, at least, the dwindling band of Independent readers – that Bush is "warm", "spontaneous" and better in private than in his "rigid" television appearances.

This is part of a "charm offensive" by Barroso who, The Independent says, "is playing a role in an unprecedented EU push to patch up the relationship between Europe and Washington".

In an interview with the paper, he was asked whether a sceptical European public could be won over to the US President. It was in that context that Barroso gushed about the "warmth" of GW.

But, if Barrroso wants to inject a "touchy-feely" note into the relationship, it is the International Herald Tribune which addresses one of the key, hard-edged issues, with a long article headed: "For EU and NATO, a race for influence".

Reporter Judy Dempsey reminds us that the EU and Nato are "barely on speaking terms". She cites a senior NATO official who tells her that: "There is now a competition between both organizations where member countries try to play off their interests either against the EU or NATO." He adds:

The relationship between the EU and NATO is in flux because both are jockeying for influence on the international stage. As the EU moves slowly along the road toward doing more defense and security, it is seen as threatening to NATO. NATO knows it is no longer Washington's first port of call for its military missions. It is becoming a toolbox for the US.
This, Dempsey asserts, is all part of a sense of uncertainty inside NATO over its future as the collective security organisation for Europe. This much we have picked up in several of our own posts, not least here and also here.

The piece – which is well worth reading in full – concludes with an observation that the current paralysis is good for neither the EU nor Nato as both organisations need each other. Citing Daniel Keohane, a "defence expert" at the Centre for European Reform, the piece ends with his comment: "And then you wonder which organisation will set the trans-Atlantic agenda."

The news agency Bloomberg then widens out the theme, noting that: "Bush's European 'Honeymoon' Masks Iran, China Discord".

In another piece well worth reading, it predicts that "the smiles will be wide and the embraces warm" when Bush arrives in Europe, with the promise of setting aside the "bitter rift" over Iraq. Le Monde is billing the trip as a "honeymoon" for US- European relations.

However, Bloomberg notes, the public displays of affection will only mask, not resolve, differences over such issues as Iran's nuclear capabilities, the lifting of an embargo on arms sales to China and global warming, citing Pierre Hassner, an expert on international affairs and former research director at the Centre for international Studies and Research in Paris.

He sees no evidence that the Bush administration is more prepared now than it was during the Iraq war to heed the advice of its allies, and declares, "Beyond the smiles, there is no sign of a genuine change of substance."

That brings us to the "initiative of the day". Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform has issued (as of midday) a grandiose "Compact between the United States and Europe" signed by notables on both sides of the Atlantic, but including many of the "usual suspects", like Timothy Garton Ash, Douglas Hurd and David Hannay.

It serves a useful function in setting out the fault lines between the US and (some) EU member states, opening with a declaration that:

The partnership between Europe and the United States must endure, not because of what it achieved in the past, but because our common future depends on it. In recent weeks, optimism has grown that the partnership can find new vitality. But renewal requires more than hope; it requires action.
"This Compact," the authors claim, "shows that a way forward exists, if leaders on both sides of the Atlantic will take it. With bold steps, the partnership can survive and thrive, in a way that benefits Americans and Europeans alike."

The real agenda, though, is stated on page 10 of the document, under the heading: "United States-European Union Relations". It asks that:

The United States reaffirms its longstanding support for the process of European integration and the progressive enlargement of the European Union as deemed appropriate by the members of the European Union.

The United States affirms its willingness to engage the European Union on any issue that Europeans collectively designate as a European Union competence. The members of the European Union commit to ensuring that the international agreements reached in their name by the EU will have effect and will be implemented where appropriate into European national law and practice.

The European Union commits to ensuring that any EU defence organisation will maintain strong and transparent institutional links to NATO and complement rather than duplicate NATO functions. The United States will not oppose European efforts to develop an autonomous military planning capability so long as those efforts are undertaken transparently and in coordination with NATO planning efforts, including as appropriate through the use of dual-hatted officials.

Building on the EU’s recent decision to enhance its representation through the election of an EU President and appointment of an EU Foreign Minister, the United States and the European Union commit to enhancing the scope of their regular US-EU summits, and to underpinning summit meetings with institutional arrangements to ensure day-to-day cooperation. Summits will in the future be focused not only on trade issues but become a genuine forum for strategic dialogue on the full range of issues of concern to transatlantic relations, including in the area of foreign and security policy.
This is not what the US is prepared to offer despite the spin put on Condoleezza Rice's recent press conference during her visit to Europe. I strongly commend readers to visit the State Department site, linked in our posting, to see what she really said.

This all points up that what the "colleagues" really want is American approval of the EU constitution, which Bush will not give. Despite their yearning to be independent of the US, they still have this child-like need for "big daddy" to give them their blessing. In its absence, the fault lines will remain.

A highly forgettable experience

The Times today comes up with an interesting observation – that the EU constitution is being "sold" in different ways in different countries, almost as if in each member state it is a different document.

From Dublin to Warsaw, it says, governments are tailoring their portrayals of the constitution to maximise its appeal to their particular electorates, while opponents are doing exactly the opposite.

Inevitably, given that the treaty contains 300 pages of legalese and over half the public in EU member states professes no knowledge of it, there is ample scope for presenting the constitution any way one wants. This is rather at odds with the idea that the purpose of the constitution was to provide one clear, simple, unambiguous definition of the Union and its powers.

The Times identifies as the most glaring contrast, the difference between the way Britain and France are presenting the treaty. Chirac is calling it the "consecration of Europe" as a super-welfare state along French lines. Blair, on the other hand, depicts it as a guarantee of British sovereignty, complete with vetos and inviolable "red lines".

The Spanish, who go to the vote on Sunday, are being told that the treaty is designed to lock in the country's new prosperity with a continuing stream of euros from Brussels. Similarly, Poland is looking to continued largesse, with farming subsidies helping to create a positive view of the constitution.

The Irish are also looking to the promise of further aid-driven prosperity, while opponents see its defence element as a threat to the country’s neutrality.

The Danes and Dutch, on the other hand, are looking at the treaty as a dangerous open door to Turkey, and Muslim immigration. The populist Danish People’s Party, in particular, is mobilising opposition by depicting the constitution as a vote on Turkish entry, although this is still being negotiated. However, prime minister Jan Peter Balkenende is painting it vaguely as a "charter for our common future" that is designed to prevent war.

In Luxembourg, the treaty is viewed as a welcome step towards political union, an opinion shared Belgium, while the German public sees a political voice for Europe to face down the United States.

Wolfgang Schuessel, Austria’s chancellor, argues that the constitution protects smaller member states, an argument that has some resonance in Prague. This Blog’s readers, however, will recall that the FCO claims that the constitution gives Britain greater voting power, reflecting better the size of the UK.

Meanwhile, in France, polls show the "yes" camp's previously strong lead declining into single digits, prompting Chirac to order an all-out campaign to persuade France that the constitution enshrines the architecture of Social Europe and bolsters the continent against an American-led globalised world.

The Spanish, despite the vote on Sunday and the hyperactivity of their political classes, seem to be opting for a prolonged siesta – giving rise to fears that the turnout will be embarrassingly low, even if a "yes" outcome is a foregone conclusion.

However, Sebastian Kurpas, a researcher at the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels, has offered his view on how to spin the result. "The lesson of Spain," he says, "is that leaders need to communicate that this is a compromise between 25 countries. You can't take out one article and say 'we are against the entire Constitution because of it.'"

He is unconcerned about a low turnout: "What matters," he says, "is that the Spanish ratify it. That is what people will remember." From all accounts, though, the referendum will be a highly forgettable experience.

All things to all men – and women

The Times today comes up with an interesting observation – that the EU constitution is being "sold" in different ways in different countries, almost as if in each member state it is a different document.

From Dublin to Warsaw, it says, governments are tailoring their portrayals of the constitution to maximise its appeal to their particular electorates, while opponents are doing exactly the opposite.

Inevitably, given that the treaty contains 300 pages of legalese and over half the public in EU member states professes no knowledge of it, there is ample scope for presenting the constitution any way one wants. This is rather at odds with the idea that the purpose of the constitution was to provide one clear, simple, unambiguous definition of the Union and its powers.

The Times identifies as the most glaring contrast, the difference between the way Britain and France are presenting the treaty. Chirac is calling it the "consecration of Europe" as a super-welfare state along French lines. Blair, on the other hand, depicts it as a guarantee of British sovereignty, complete with vetos and inviolable "red lines".

The Spanish, who go to the vote on Sunday, are being told that the treaty is designed to lock in the country's new prosperity with a continuing stream of euros from Brussels. Similarly, Poland is looking to continued largesse, with farming subsidies helping to create a positive view of the constitution.

The Irish are also looking to the promise of further aid-driven prosperity, while opponents see its defence element as a threat to the country’s neutrality.

The Danes and Dutch, on the other hand, are looking at the treaty as a dangerous open door to Turkey, and Muslim immigration. The populist Danish People’s Party, in particular, is mobilising opposition by depicting the constitution as a vote on Turkish entry, although this is still being negotiated. However, prime minister Jan Peter Balkenende is painting it vaguely as a "charter for our common future" that is designed to prevent war.

In Luxembourg, the treaty is viewed as a welcome step towards political union, an opinion shared Belgium, while the German public sees a political voice for Europe to face down the United States.

Wolfgang Schuessel, Austria’s chancellor, argues that the constitution protects smaller member states, an argument that has some resonance in Prague. This Blog’s readers, however, will recall that the FCO claims that the constitution gives Britain greater voting power, reflecting better the size of the UK.

Meanwhile, in France, polls show the "yes" camp's previously strong lead declining into single digits, prompting Chirac to order an all-out campaign to persuade France that the constitution enshrines the architecture of Social Europe and bolsters the continent against an American-led globalised world.

The Spanish, despite the vote on Sunday and the hyperactivity of their political classes, seem to be opting for a prolonged siesta – giving rise to fears that the turnout will be embarrassingly low, even if a "yes" outcome is a foregone conclusion.

However, Sebastian Kurpas, a researcher at the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels, has offered his view on how to spin the result. "The lesson of Spain," he says, "is that leaders need to communicate that this is a compromise between 25 countries. You can't take out one article and say 'we are against the entire Constitution because of it.'"

He is unconcerned about a low turnout: "What matters," he says, "is that the Spanish ratify it. That is what people will remember." From all accounts, though, the referendum will be a highly forgettable experience.

Thursday, February 17, 2005

We have been there before

With weary familiarity, we can see the same old pattern emerging. First, appointing a pan-European "super prosecutor" was one of Blair's "red lines". Then, under pressure during the constitutional convention, British negotiators conceded that the post could come into existence, but only if all 25 EU member states agreed - a so-called "unanimity lock".

Now, according to a report in the Telegraph, Franz-Hermann Brüner, director general of the European Anti-Fraud Office, is preparing us for the next stage.

Speaking at a seminar at the European Parliament in Brussels, Brüner - a German former judge - has cast doubt on the security of the "lock".

He said preparatory work on establishing the office of European public prosecutor - who would outrank national prosecutors on crimes involving EU funds - was already under way and argued that the EU constitution was "removing the walls" currently enforcing a strict separation between the union and national criminal justice systems.

British officials are still insisting that the "unanimity lock" is enough to block the creation of a pan-European prosecutor, but Brüner disagrees. "Hopefully we will have a constitution in 2007-2008," he says, "and that will be the legal basis [for such a prosecutor]. In the meantime, we will continue with the preparatory work."

Unnamed EU legal experts seemed also to support Brüner, suggesting that the "lock" could be overcome, with one noting that in Brussels, voting rules can change, and have done so in the past.

This is all so familiar – a process that has been described as "engrenage" or "salami slicing". Others might call it the "thin edge of the wedge" technique.

First, a proposal is dismissed as unacceptable. Then is accepted as a vague objective, to be achieved at some unspecified time in the future. Then it is given substance, with objectors assured that they can veto the final plans. Then the veto is whittled away, and finally the original proposal – which everyone assured us was never going to happen, is adopted.

How often have we been there, and how many more times are our leaders going to fall for it?

Consumer protection - EU style

The annual chore of renewing car insurance has unexpectedly taken on an unwelcome twist, courtesy of an EU obsession for providing "a high degree of consumer protection" to the purchasers of financial products.

The particular lament in this case is that the customary two week "period of grace" has now been removed and insurance lapses on the day of expiry of the old certificate.

And, although there seems to be no dispute that this is the result of an EU requirement, there is no clear information that I can find which points to the precise law which prevents insurance companies offering the period of grace.

The best guess seems to be Directive 2002/92/EC, the Insurance mediation directive which came into force on 14 January of this year. This, the EU commission claims, "will improve choice and reinforce protection for customers while helping insurance intermediaries such as insurance brokers, banks and car dealers - to market their services across borders."

I am sure some anal retentives will argue that the "protection" afforded by this directive is well worth the hassle, but for normally dysfunctional individuals like myself, who leave everything to the last minute, and hate parting with money – mainly because, with Mrs EU Referendum and a BMW to support (to say nothing of the speeding fines), I haven't very much of it – the two weeks' period of grace has often been a lifeline which has kept me driving and within the law.

The system seems to have worked very well in the past and undoubtedly would have continued but for the intervention of the EU and it is thus a real mystery as to how the EU can claim to have improved "customer choice and protection" by removing a small but valued element of flexibility.

Furthermore, this same law, by imposing a complex and expensive authorisation process on those who wish to sell insurance, is now heavily restricting the availability of specialist insurance packages.

For instance, the British Association of Removers (BAR) is complaining that its members, who used to sell removal insurance to their clients, now cannot afford to do so because the cost and administrative burdens of registering with the Financial Services Authority (which implements the directive) makes the small-scale business unviable.

Curiously, some of the other more obvious sectors that sell insurance, such as the travel industry and the sellers of extended warranties, eg retailers, are not affected by the law, but those such as vets, surveyors, florists and many others who offer insurance in addition to their core products and services, are caught in the net.

The BAR believes that the new legislation could potentially actually have a detrimental effect on consumers, rather than the intended aim of protecting them, not least because removal firms cannot even provide advice to customers such as, "will my household policy cover the move?".

Under the new regime, only authorised firms will be able to answer this question. Other firms would be guilty of a criminal offence if they attempted to help consumers by responding, as it would be construed as giving advice.

The BAR describes the EU directive as the classic "sledgehammer to crack a nut syndrome". But then one should know by now that, when the EU offers "consumer protection", the only resort is to reach for the nearest cliché.

Our advice remains the same

Lending substance to our charge that the Kyoto agreement is economic suicide comes a piece in today’s Telegraph (business section) which reports that the troubled emissions trading scheme could add 20 percent to our power bills.

This is according to analysts from the investment bank UBS, who have been trying to assess its impact, and these rises will follow a 30 percent increase in wholesale electricity prices across Europe by 2013.

UBS's research suggests that the impact of emissions trading on electricity prices will become as important as the impact of oil prices and interest rates. Over the next two to three years, the analysis say, there will be no significant additional price pressures caused by the trading scheme, as the price of carbon will remain at current levels.

However, from 2008, the price of CO2 is then expected to increase gradually, forcing wholesale electricity prices up. From 2008 to 2012, the key price drivers will be the availability of allowances from Russia and Ukraine – which will be trading emissions under the Kyoto Protocol. But, from 2013, those countries which have been granted more generous allocations because of their reliance on coal – the UK and Germany – will see these cut back.

From then, prices will be determined by the costs of switching from coal-fired plant to gas and by relative fuel costs and the oil price.

Furthermore, that is not the end of it. With the UK aiming for a renewable energy target of 10 percent by 2010, which costs up to three times more than conventional generation, plus the considerable but so far unquantified costs of renewing the national grid to accommodate the dispersed and fluctuating supply, and we could be seeing an additional ten percent or more on our energy bills.

For those who believe that this is an acceptable price for "saving the planet", perhaps they should look at this site. As for this Blog, our advice remains the same.

Democracy-lite

The Foreign Policy Centre bills itself as “The European Think Tank with a Global Outlook”. To most of us it is the über-Blairite alternative to the ordinarily establishment and FCO-minded Chatham House. What sort of relations the Foreign Policy Centre has with the other seriously Blairite, formerly perestroika Europhile, now cheer-leader Centre for European Reform is a subject that could easily lend itself to a doctoral thesis or two.

Anyway, the Foreign Policy Centre has a new programme, called Civility, which has the following blurb on the website:

“Civility is a programme of research, events and publications aimed at informing Western strategies for political reform in the Greater Middle East. Underpinning its activities is the belief that meaningful reform in the region can only come from a functioning civil society supported by the values of the rule of law and essential freedoms of speech, information, publication and association. Civility seeks to engage decision-makers in an understanding of the potential development of civil society in the Middle East through the following three processes:

· Building a network of reform-minded individuals who can support the programme's aims

· Mapping out available research on political reform and civil society in the region and commissioning new projects and polls to fill the gaps in the current body of literature

· Developing clear and practicable policy recommendations for leaders and policymakers”
Vague this may be but it does make a certain amount of sense. But only a certain amount, since in its incredibly civil way it refuses to engage with the problem of extremely oppressive regimes, many of whom are also seriously anti-Western.

This is particularly interesting, as the chairman of the programme has a good deal to say about less than totally democratic regimes such as that of Pakistan, which is an American ally.

In an article in yesterday’s Financial Times Mr Pirouz did have the grace to acknowledge that the spectacle of people streaming to vote in Afghanistan, Iraq and the Palestine was heartening. He even implied, but perish the thought that we should say so out loud, that it was all made possible by American support (with its allies, though Mr Pirouz does not mention that).
“When given the chance, the peoples of the Middle East are eager to prove wrong those arguing that Islam and democracy are incompatible and to fulfil their aspirations to freedom and self-rule.”
But, he adds
“Western nations have so far dismally failed to support them. US-led coalitions resorted to regime change to deal with threatening governments in Afghanistan and Iraq, but they are quiet on, and even acquiescent to, authoritarianism and corruption in the rest of the region.”
Well, depends on which Western nations we are talking about, Mr Pirouz. American, British, Australian, Polish, Danish and various other soldiers shed their blood to ensure that some of the elections took place. Other Western countries, ahem, well, how shall I put it? – sat on the sidelines and grizzled.

After a certain amount of grumbling about the hand of friendship being extended to Pervez Musharraf, Mr Pirouz waxes eloquent about the wonders of the Turkish political system – also secular Muslim but far more enlightened and democratic. (He might have some trouble explaining this to some opponents of Turkey’s membership of the EU but one must assume he will be able to deal with that.)

Actually, Mr Pirouz’s main piece of evidence in favour of Turkey’s democratic credentials is the fact that
“The decision of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish prime minister, to stand firm against US pressure for access rights in the invasion, meanwhile, was a setback for Washington but won Mr Erdogan the respect of voters and strengthened the democratic consensus in Turkey.”
So what does Mr Pirouz, who may well be Turkish himself, suggest that the West can do, assuming it comes to some kind of understanding on the subject? Unsurprisingly, he does not go into details, such as stop supporting terrorists, since clearly, shock, horror, the non-American West would never do such a thing.

No suggestion of not engaging in dodgy scandals like the one enveloping the food-for-oil scheme or of not selling arms to very dodgy dictators. Don’t bother me with details.

Since the EU’s incentive of Turkey’s membership (rather a dubious offer and beset by many ifs and buts) has had such a wondrous effect in that country, the EU should do the same with other Middle Eastern countries.
“The EU should offer similar incentives for change in Syria, Egypt and Lebanon. Middle Eastern accession to the EU is not a serious proposal but Europe could initiate a new club of reform-minded states, with a clear institutional identity and attractive economic benefits - a sort of "EU-lite".”
Precisely, what kind of possibility does Mr Pirouz perceive in Syria or Lebanon (the two may be treated as one with the first controlling the second)? And how is this extraordinary structure to be achieved?

Well, it’s that “soft power” again.
“Membership of the club must first offer tangible incentives - and not just to pliant leaders - in return for political change. Bringing together the benefits offered to North African and Middle Eastern states under the EU's Barcelona process would achieve this. Their aid, trade and travel advantages would give significant leverage. Europe donates some Euros 1bn (Dollars 1.3bn) a year to the Middle East and North Africa in non-military aid alone and another Euros 2bn in soft loans.”
Well, now that you mention it, what has happened to all that money? Has it encouraged any of the North African and Middle Eastern states to indulge in freedom and democracy? Not that you would notice. Certainly, not nearly as much as Afghanistan and Iraq so far.

The Barcelona process, let us recall, has not prevented the EU from championing Chairman Yasser Arafat, the single biggest obstacle to peace and freedom in the Middle East. Neither did it prevent various member states and its politicians from supporting the bloodthirsty kleptocracy of Saddam Hussein.

Mr Pirouz’s conclusion is reasonable enough:
“Committing to democratic governance means accepting that there is no single model for democracy and that Islamic groups can become positive forces in a healthy democratic process. If the EU is serious about becoming the foremost global champion of democracy, it must engage with the peoples and leaders of the Middle East, to reverse the decades-long failure to harness their aspirations to democracy and justice.”
But little about the EU’s foreign policy, in so far as it exists, gives one any kind of assurance that it is or would like to be the “foremost global champion of democracy”. Au contraire. Its track-record on supporting terrorists and tyrants of all persuasion (but particularly those who claim to be left-wing and, especially, anti-American) speaks for itself.

But then what can one expect from an organization whose response to a perceived “democratic deficit” was to create a detailed 300-plus page long constitution that will turn the deficit into a permanent and endemic shortage?

The China issue again

In a short and necessarily superficial paper, Helle Dale, the Foreign Policy and Defence Studies director of Heritage Foundation, praises efforts made on both sides of the transatlantic divide to narrow the gap. Even by making stupendous allowances, she cannot make the efforts seem equivalent.

“On its side, the Bush administration has taken several steps to address European concerns. We are engaging far more directly in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations; U.S. foreign aid is seeing a significant increase in the 2006 budget; environmental concerns are back as a subject of discussion now that the Kyoto Protocol has taken effect; contractors from European countries that did not participate in the war were allowed as of last year to participate in the competitive bidding process.

Europeans, however, have so far grudgingly agreed to dispatch a small number of trainers to help with the Iraqi police under NATO auspices, though where they will be allowed to conduct their instruction is still uncertain. The French government persists in the absurd opinion that the place cannot be Iraq.”
Well, let’s draw a line under that, she suggests. The Europeans (and who are they, precisely, Ms Dale?) could improve the situation by listening to American concerns over China.

She lists all the usual reasons for not lifting the arms embargo:

China’s adventurous and destabilizing policy in South-East Asia, that has brought it to the brink of open hostilities with the United States and its allies.

China is engaged in an arms build-up, having spent $17.8 billion (£9.4 billion) since 1995, though it appears to have no external enemy in sight. (That may not be the way China views the situation, having long ago decided that anyone who does not do as the Chinese leadership says is an enemy, externally and internally.)

And, of course, there is the lamentable Chinese non-record on human rights. A number of American commentators have placed emphasis on this, presumably believing the EU’s waffle about spreading sweetness and light, freedom and democracy, motherhood and apple-pie.

Alas, Ms Dale, that is not what the EU is interested in and as a policy wonk, who is distinctly in favour of a European Union rather than American relations with European friends and allies, you will have to get used to this.
“European defense contractors, like the European Aeronautic Defense and Space Co., are eyeing billions of dollars worth of lucrative contracts, and Europeans are teaming up with China to work on everything from multipurpose helicopters to a global navigation satellite system.”
That is one aspect of the whole sorry tale. The other one is the definite intention on the part of the European Union to build its common foreign policy entirely on the basis of opposition to the United States.

Ms Dale addresses quite sensibly the question of what America can do.
“All of which may leave the Bush administration with some unpopular choices of its own. One step could be to revive Cocom (the Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export Controls) from the Soviet days, which might provide a forum for the exchange of information between Europeans and Americans as to who is selling what arms to China and when.

Or the U.S. government might start to refuse export licenses to European allies on some of the most sensitive U.S. technologies and on the sales of "dual-use" technology to any European nation that sells arms to China.

In that case, we would really see stormy weather over the Atlantic.”
We have just had another storm warning. When will our political leaders start paying attention?

We have become more powerful... II

"And for all of those that say, if you look at the last thirty years, we have lost power to Brussels, actually it isn't true. In the last, certainly in the last eight years, as we, the Labour government, have been more involved in Europe, so we have become more powerful and more prosperous, better able, literally to implement a patriotic case for the European Union."

Jack Straw
Foreign Secretary

BBC Today Programme, 9 February 2005

We did not want it, it is going to be highly disruptive to the British economy and it is going to cost us a fortune. But we’re going to get it anyway.

"It" is Directive 2002/15/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 March 2002, on "the organisation of the working time of persons performing mobile road transport activities", otherwise known as the "working time directive".

Relatively short, at a mere five pages, this directive – which comes into force on 23 March of this year - limits the working hours of drivers to 48 hours a week against 55 hours at present. Its cost to the British economy is estimated at £1 billion a year.

But the central issue here is that the UK has an opt-out to the working time directive, which means that the EU could not impose controls under the Social Chapter, leaving us to make our own arrangements.

In July 1997, however – shortly after Blair's NuLab government had been elected - the EU commission came up with a clever wheeze. Instead of pursuing new legislation under the Social Chapter, it decided to categorise transport workers' hours as a health and safety issue. This comes under qualified majority voting provisions, which meant that the UK could not block them.

So, after ritual huffing and puffing, Blair's government caved in, abstaining from the final vote in the Council, to avoid the ignominy of being outvoted. The directive became law on 11 March 2002 and comes into force on 23 March 2005, with a derogation for self-employed drivers until 23 March 2009.

And, as The Telegraph reports today, these EU rules now "threaten chaos on the roads".

In a somewhat unfortunate phrasing, Roland Gribben reports that lorry fleet operators "have started a crash programme" to cope with a cut in working hours. One hopes he is talking figuratively.

Something like another 44,000 drivers have to be recruited and trained yet, despite the warnings, many companies are unprepared to handle the changes. Furthermore, this not only affects the operators, as the Transport and General Workers' Union is worried that its members will lose their overtime and will suffer what amount to long-term wage cuts.

In the way of things, there are also ongoing disputes as to the definition of "working time", with argument as to the designation of periods when drivers are "queuing" to load or unload or are held up. The big problem is when drivers are stuck in traffic jams or, for instance, immobilised on the M25 because of a ferry dispute. The Union believes this should be considered as working time – the employers not.

But all this is detail compared with the rigours of the original impost, a measure which, we stress, neither government, the industry or the unions wanted. Yet the directive was imposed on Britain and we are stuck with it, the whole thing having come into being during those last eight years, when, as Jack Straw claims, "we, the Labour government, have been more involved in Europe" and "have become more powerful and more prosperous…".

Yeah, right.

Mood music on defence

Watching as we do so closely the machinations of the "project", following every twist and turn – or as many as we can – in order to keep our growing band of readers informed, the antennae become so highly tuned that one can often hear the "mood music" that perhaps escapes the less discerning observer.

And within the broad sweep of EU activity, there are few issues of greater interest than the emerging defence policy and the rush towards defence integration. This is a subject that is marked out by the almost total failure of the "legacy media", which has wafted above the issue, seemingly unaware of what is going on.

But, in listening to that "mood music", of late the rhythm seems somewhat disrupted. We are detecting a discordant jangling, the nature of which makes analysis very difficult.

At one level, some of the events related to the overall defence scenario seem surreal. Not least is the determination of the "colleagues" to burn bridges with the Americans who are notionally – and in fact – our allies in the global war against terror, and much else.

One of the key issues, of course, is China and the lifting of the EU arms embargo. There is still something inexplicable about the willingness of EU member states to incur the wrath of the US in their rush to sell more military equipment to the Peoples' Republic.

Here, the puzzling becomes distinctly surreal with the recent report from France, where defence minister Michèle Alliot-Marie is arguing that sales of weapons technologies to China could slow Beijing's push to develop its own capabilities. This, she maintains, is part of the reason why her country backs lifting the embargo.

Alliot-Marie is apparently insisting that France has strict export regimes that would prevent most lethal technologies getting into China's hands – despite there being substantial evidence that French companies have been selling high-tech defence systems, in defiance of the embargo.

In an interview with the Financial Times, she has said that Beijing was likely to have advanced arms in five years with or without western help. In that context, "The lifting of the embargo could be a better protection for us than maintaining it." She continues:

China is rapidly developing its industry, and today our experts say that in five years China could make exactly the same arms that we have today. And they will do it if they cannot import. So maybe if we can sell them the arms, they will not make them. And in five years' time, they will not have the technology to make them.
Frankly, any which way you look at it, it is impossible to accept that the woman can be so stupid as to believe what she is saying, or indeed that anyone else is stupid enough to believe her. The Chinese have highly skilled engineers and are notorious for buying examples of Western technology and reverse engineering them in order to copy and then reproduce them.

So the "mood music" jangles. It does not make sense.

Another puzzler was Schröder's recent speech delivered to the Munich conference on security policy, when without warning he called for a high level commission to reassess the relationship between Europe and America, warning that Nato was at risk of becoming "outdated". In response to an emollient Rumsfeld, his speech then contained this declaration:

…German foreign and security policy is determined by our geographic and political location at the heart of Europe. We are formulating it in Europe, for Europe and from Europe. It is in Germany's, as well as the international community's interests, that the European Union assume greater international responsibility. The step towards creating its own set of political and military instruments with the European Security and Defence Policy is therefore necessary.
Schröder is an experienced politician and has been on the international scene for many years. He must know that, if you are looking for a positive response from an international partner – and especially from the Americans, you do not "bounce" them with surprise announcements. Schröder's speech did not make sense.

More discordance comes in the form of the speech in Madrid by Nick Witney, the former senior civil servant in the Ministry of Defence, who is now the chief executive of the newly formed European Defence Agency.

Actually, Witney's appointment doesn't make sense either. Formerly from the Foreign Officer, he is clearly a high flier and, in his MoD post was in the top levels of the department, responsible for high-level policy formulation. You do not remove a man from that job and put him in charge of an obscure (ostensibly) European agency dealing with procurement. This is akin to putting the chief executive of Tescos in charge of a corner shop.

Nor indeed would you expect the chief executive of the European Defence Agency to have made such an overtly political speech, pointing up the "embarrassing gap" between Europe's aspirations for a leading defence role on the world stage and its limited military strength.

However, at least Witney is in tune with Schröder and his call for the EU to assume greater international responsibility, "creating its own set of political and military instruments with the European Security and Defence Policy". But how does that fit in with Italy, which has just cut its defence budget by €1.57 billion – down 3.6 percent from 2004 - bringing it to below one percent of GDP?

So impoverished is the Italian defence ministry now that it is having to raise €1.2 billion by selling off military barracks and other property. But even with that cash injection, it can only meet current commitments and has no spare funding for planned procurement programmes.

Much the same is happening in the UK, with the prestige contracts for two super-carriers and the Army’s flagship Future Rapid Effects System (FRES) running late, with no budget allocated for them. Neither the Italian nor the UK parsimony make sense.

Then, elsewhere, out of the blue, we hear that India is signing up with the EU to join the Galileo satellite navigation programme, after all. As we left the story in early December, India was ready to pull out and join with the Russians in redeveloping the former Soviet Glonass system.

Although India had agreed in principle to join Galileo – with a down-payment of €300 million – it wanted to be an "equal partner", with access to the system for military purposes, which the EU was refusing to guarantee. With the EU still pretending that the satellites have no military application, the current deal – on the face of it – does not make sense.

In fact, the only conclusions that can be drawn from all these disparate strands is that nothing makes sense – the "mood music" is all wrong. And that is worrying.

Wednesday, February 16, 2005

When in a hole

When you are in a hole, runs the wise political advice, the first thing you must do is to stop digging. Actually, the first thing you need to do is to recognize that a hole is what you are in.

This seems to be Ken Livingstone’s problem at the moment. He appears not to be able to realize that he is in a hole and one of his own making. Tony Blair is notoriously impervious to his cheekie chappie charm and may well find it convenient to get rid of him in such a way that the left cannot complain about.

Who remembers this story? In July 2003, Silvio Berlusconi, with Italy then occupying the exalted position of EU presidency, addressed the European Parliament, where various Green and Social-Democrat MEPs heckled him. He turned on one of them, by the name of Martin Schultz, and said that there could be a part for him in a film, playing a “Kapo”, that is a concentration camp guard chosen from among the prisoners.

Berlusconi being a man of the right, all hell broke lose but he refused to apologize to the MEP himself, though he did apologize to the German people. One got the feeling that perhaps he thought the German people needed an apology since they had to put up with politicians like Martin Schultz.

It is clear from that entire saga that Berlusconi knew exactly what he was saying. Ken, a man of the left, on the other hand, seems not to understand anything.

He had made a big issue of the Holocaust commemoration ceremony at City Hall (during which he quoted from the spurious Hitler Diaries, a spoof produced by a German journalist in the eighties) but he seems not to have understood what the Holocaust was.

Otherwise he would not have thrown around words like German war criminal lightly and would have grasped their implications for a Jewish journalist. It seems that Ken is no different from other politicians, to whom substance has no meaning. It is only the form that matters. No wonder he is enamoured of the European Union.

Read the full story of the Ken saga here.

A preposterous idea

It was Der Spiegel magazine last Sunday which broke the news that the German government was preparing to propose a tax of €300 per ton of aviation fuel to the EU finance ministers council to be held tomorrow.

The proposal was that this tax should be collected from all EU-based airlines, the proceeds of which would be used to raise funds for development in Africa.

Although we noted this story, we took the view at the time that it was so preposterous that it would soon die. In fact, we had to do a double-take to ensure that 1 April had not crept up on us, making it the classic April fool joke.

Note least, we thought, since air fuel taxation is subject to international agreement, not even EU member states could be so stupid as to disadvantage their own airlines in a highly competitive market, when there was no hope whatsoever of other countries (and especially the USA) joining in.

However, by yesterday, the story had developed, with news leaking out that the EU commission was in support of the idea, as long as it was in addition to a country's regular aid budget, not a substitute, and that the money was ring-fenced for development.

The airlines, of course, were furious and, by this evening, transport commissioner, Jaques "Wheel" Barrot was pulling back, telling a news briefing that: "I would be reluctant to introduce a tax on jet fuel today for European air companies,"

But, even if the idea was practicable, from the point of view of actually collecting the tax, the idea of pumping any more aid into Africa is itself preposterous, as my colleague – with the help of Mr Rod Liddle - has just pointed out.

But, if any further confirmation was needed, all you have to do is read today’s Telegraph, which records that King Mswati III of Swaziland, one of the world's poorest countries, has just spent £450,000 on 10 new BMWs for his 11 wives and three teenage fiancees. This extravagance, the latest in a long line, is equivalent to almost half the £1 million of British aid that Swaziland received last year and is equal to 1.5 per cent of Swaziland's health budget of £30 million.

Seventy per cent of Swaziland's one million people live in absolute poverty. Around 39 per cent of all adult Swazis are infected with HIV or Aids – the highest proportion in the world. And the government is so strapped for cash that government ministries cannot buy any new furniture this year.

Swaziland is kept afloat by more than £14 million of international aid. Yet last year, the king spent almost £9 million on palaces, parties and cars. His 36th birthday party, which was celebrated in the national stadium with 10,000 guests, cost £330,000.

And should Gordon Brown double international aid for Africa and cancel the continent's debts, as he has proposed, Swaziland – i.e., King Mswati - would gain about £38 million. Perhaps then he could afford the £25 million that in 2002 he tried to spend on a private jet before being forced to back down because of outrage among his people and protests from aid donors.

On the other hand, if you are inclined to think that Mswati is an atypical exception, read another story in the same edition of the Telegraph, which reports that president Mwai Kibaki of Kenya is said to have taken to his bed in despair, finding solace, according to a cabinet colleague, "only in the works of P G Wodehouse".

Facing the biggest political crisis of his two-year premiership, Kibaki has just lost his only honest adviser, the anti-corruption chief John Githongo, who resigned last week in protest at the president's failure to tackle rampant corruption inside his cabinet.

With the country spiralling downwards, Kenya is rapidly becoming a hub for international crime. The Russian mafia has arrived, bringing with it a coterie of stern-faced eastern European prostitutes. Drug barons have moved in too, giving Mr Kibaki yet more cause for retiring to his bed – while the people suffer.

And the EU wants to give more money to these people? Preposterous!

Blogstorm

A new word has entered the English language: "blogstorm". It seems to have been coined in relation to the storm of comment on the US blogs about the conduct of CNN executive Eason Jordan.

This is the man who asserted in a discussion forum at the recent Davos summit that he knew of 12 journalists who had not only been killed by US troops in Iraq, but had in fact been "targeted".

Although there were a number of journalists present, none of them chose to report it, but it was picked up by blogger Rony Abovitz who, on 28 January, put a detailed account of the incident on his Blog.

His post was, in turn, picked up by fellow bloggers, leading to an explosion of comment (see, for instance, here and here)which then got picked up by the "legacy" media. When Jordon, under the light of intense public scrutiny, failed to substantiate his claim, he was forced to resign, claiming he had done so to save his network from further embarrassment.

This is the second high-profile victim of the Blogosphere, the first one being Dan Rather of CBS, which we commented on when we reached our first 50,000 hits (see here).

So significant is this latest scalp that even the BBC has noticed. On the BBC PM programme this afternoon, the loathsome Eddie Mair ran a piece asking whether the Blogosphere was going to change the world.

Rony Abovitz, whom Mair interviewed, was in no doubt. He believed it was "the true democratisation of the media" and he himself was "amazed and frightened at its power".

Mair then interviewed two pundits, neither of whose names I caught, but one of them clearly signalled that the "legacy" media saw the Blogsphere as a threat, complaining that journalists were "supposed to be the gatekeepers" of the news but, instead of going to them with stories that might be interesting, these bloggers were publishing them themselves.

One could almost taste the indignation of Mair when he put to his interviewee that the bloggers were not professional journalists, so there were no checks on them if they got it wrong – a bit rich that, after "Rathergate". He was told that bloggers themselves would challenge those who did get it wrong, and very quickly indeed.

Clearly, Mair does not understand the phenomenon which will eventually displace him and his likes. What he must realise is that, if the journos and their "legacy media" do not do the job, then we will do it for him.

There is a similar issue here with the story that the BBC reported at lunchtime, commenting on Blair's attempt to reach the puvli through popular television shows such as the Richard & Judy show, and the "Wright stuff" programme on Channel 5.

Peter Kelner of YouGov opined that Blair was trying to connect with an audience that did not watch the new and political programmes. But the piece also discussed the way politicians were becoming frustrated by the way their messages were getting distorted by the media and were therefore seeking to by-pass the "Westminster filter".

In our own way, that is what the bloggers are doing as well. We may not have access to the popular telly shows by, through the Blogsosphere, collectively we can make our voices heard. The "legacy media" no longer has the monopoly. And, although the "blogstorm" has yet to reach these shore, political blogs in the UK are following the lead set by the US. It can only be a matter of time.

This will have to stop

Another article by Rod Liddle one agrees with? What is the world coming to? Actually, there have been several articles I have found remarkably sensible and the same goes for Andrew Gilligan. (Though his latest piece in the Spectator is muddle-headed but I shall deal with it in a separate posting.)

This makes one wonder what they do to these people in the BBC? How do they all become brainless, spineless, banality-mouthing robots? Don’t bother to tell me how brave Gilligan was. He was slipshod and gormless. The merest rookie of a journalist would have avoided his mistakes in the past.

Anyway, Liddle. He has an article in this week’s Spectator entitled Make naivety history. Clear references there to that ridiculous campaign, espoused by so many celebs and wannabe celebs, Make poverty history.

Mr Liddle makes the entirely sensible point that while there is a great deal of shouting and jumping up and down by celebrities, whose opinion is of dubious value, little attention is afforded to people who really know about poverty and what might be done about it. In other words, nobody who talks about it, really cares about what happens in those very far-off countries, they just want to feel good and warm inside.

His description of the whole process is so brilliantly funny and vicious that I feel compelled to quote him:

“What you will certainly have noticed, on the other side of the living-room, on your television screens, is an endless procession of stars and superstars and megastars and the fabulously rich and famous all wringing their hands over the Third World debt burden, over all those poor people in terribly impoverished countries who are forced, through the iniquities of Western capitalism, to hand over their meagre earnings to the evil international debt collectors.

The procession is led by Bono, the lead singer of the popular, if pompous, Irish rock group U2. Bono is much fêted by politicians and by the great and the good. He has audiences with the Pope and the President of the USA and Blair and Brown, and he lectures them on the urgent need to write off Third World debt. And, mystifyingly, they listen to him, this rock singer.

Now, more and more celebs and pseudo or crypto celebs are getting in on the act demanding much the same thing. They’ve banded together under the catchy heading ‘Make Poverty History’ — because, of course, that’s exactly what would happen if you wrote off all that debt: poverty would just disappear.”
Mr Liddle is a little too liberal and generous for my tastes. He thinks that in a democracy celebrities “have as much right to get exercised by things as plumbers, traffic wardens and insurance loss-adjusters”. Don’t know about that.

The problem is that while we know all about what the entire cast of the Vicar of Dibley think on what should be done about poverty (send more aid and write off debts), this amazingly well-founded and well-argued opinion is contradicted by “economists and people who work in the debt industry”.

Their opinion is that writing off debts is a very bad idea. It undermines the whole financial process and destroys world-wide ideas of probity.

It penalizes countries that have made stupendous efforts to pay off debts and, as Mr Liddle says, there is “a very strong correlation between countries which meet their debt repayments and later, long-term strong financial performance”.

Furthermore, cancelling or rescheduling debt repayment affects a country’s credit rating and leaves it vulnerable to higher interest rates on subsequent loans. Many of the poor countries are begging not to have their debts rescheduled. They seem to understand economics, unlike our own Chancellor of the Exchequer. Perhaps they have no celebs to listen to.

In the end, the real problem of the poor countries, particularly those in Africa, is one of governance; the attitude people have towards their governments and the attitude of the governments towards the people.

Pumping more money in or letting dictators who have mis-spent every penny of money their countries had and money they have been given since, will only strengthen the misgovernment of Africa. It will not reduce poverty, eradicate diseases or provide people with better lives.
“There are scores of reports which suggest that the net impact of aid on Africa has been negative; that it has damaged the capacity of each individual country to govern its own affairs, but allowed despotic elites to borrow more money and wage war against their neighbours.

Carol Lancaster has worked in the aid industry all her life, and she served in the Carter administration. Believe me, she ain’t no hard-headed supply side übermoppet. She has this to say: ‘Aid may have unintentionally encouraged the misrule that led to collapse and civil conflict.’

And here’s Michael Edwards, formerly of the Ford Foundation and the World Bank: ‘Africa’s crisis is really one of governance,’ adding that almost all public development in Africa is paid for by overseas aid. In fact the 1996 World Bank Report made this observation: ‘Almost every African country has witnessed a systematic regression of capacity in the last 30 years. The majority had better capacity at independence than they now possess.’”
It is that last sentence that is so damning. This is not a single comment. Most people who know about Africa say the same. It ought to make all the transnational organizations and NGOs hang their collective heads in shame, instead of demanding that we pour more money down the same drain of their misguided and destructive good intentions.

Of course, we believe in consumer choice but ....

Sadly, consumers might not make the right choice. They might decide to buy whatever they want rather than what they should buy. So, they have to be guided. That’s what the EU free market is all about. Sensible guidance. No, no, no, it is not about protecting producers, who have no wish to compete.

Take the whole subject of “protected designation of origin”. The idea is that specialist, preferably small and medium-sized producers who have been labouring away trying to produce delicious food and drink in the time-honoured fashion, should not see their business destroyed by unscrupulous multi-nationals (or nationals) who cynically use the well-known name to promote their own “inferior” product.

The reason for those quotation marks is obvious: experience tells one that small producers do not necessarily make good things and large ones do not necessarily make bad ones. Also, emphasis on time-honoured fashion may well preclude change, development and improvement.

The law, however, and, specifically, the law of labelling (a nightmare if ever there was one) is a blunt instrument, ever open to sectoral influence.

One such case has just reached the ECJ. Back in 2002 the Commission decided in its wisdom that the word “feta”, a specialized cheese made out of goat’s or sheep’s milk, must have a protected status. And, surprise, surprise it is to be protected as a Greek name, where, the Greeeks say, it has been produced for 6,000 years.

Undoubtedly, some form of goat’s milk and sheep’s milk cheese has been produced on the territory that is known as Greece for that long. Whether it actually was feta as we know it, remains open to doubt.

More to the point, feta cheese has been produced for decades in other countries (not least in Turkey and Bulgaria, though the Bulgarians use the Turkic word brynza, and very nice it is, too). Specifically, it has been produced in Denmark, who even manages to export some to Greece, and in Germany.

There is, even, a small, artisanal feta producer in Britain. The Yorkshire Shepherds Purse Company is precisely the sort of small food producer that was supposed to be protected by all this regulation. Of course, they do not need protection, being able to make excellent cheese.

Neither do they need the extra burden of having to re-label all their cheeses and going “through a massive re-merchandising process and reorganisation”, as the company’s founder Judy Bell put it.

The Danish and the German governments have appealed against the decision to the European Court of Justice, their case being that the word feta, unlike, say champagne, is not linked to any locality. As long as it is clearly indicated where the cheese comes from, the Greek producers, small, large and medium, should have nothing to complain about.

One could go further and say that, as long as there is a clear indication where the produce is from, one would not need protected names of origin, anyway. That, however, might be a decision too far. Even the fairly straightforward case the ECJ is faced with will not be decided till autumn.

A parting of the ways

For someone who is supposed to be a civil servant, running an obscure technical agency, Nick Witney is seems to be taking upon himself a rather high profile political role.

Not a name with which many will be familiar, Nick Witney, formerly a senior civil servant in the Ministry of Defence, is now the chief executive of the newly formed European Defence Agency, charged (in theory) with assisting EU member states in making procurement decisions.

From the very start, however, he has been making statements that have profound policy implications which seem to be well beyond his narrow brief.

This we identified on our Blog in late January when Witney made a barely-reported speech on "collective decision-making" and the need to move away from procurement programmes "formulated on a solely national basis".

Now Witney is back in the fray, speaking at a conference on defence in Madrid, declaring that Europe suffers from an “embarrassing gap” between its aspirations for a leading defence role on the world stage and its limited military strength.

In style and with an apparent authority more akin to what one might expect from the secretary general of Nato, Witney repeated his earlier theme, saying that European countries must make more joint decisions on what to do with the 160 billion euros ($208 billion) they spend annually on defense if they are to close that gap.

"We are still, between us, spending too much money on the wrong things and not enough money on the right things," he said. "We struggle to sustain even the relatively modest burdens of the operations with which we are engaged. There is an embarrassing gap between Europe's ambitions for its role in the world and its actual capability to deliver militarily."

This is from the head of an agency with 77 staff and an annual budget of just 20 million euros, which has only been in operation six weeks. Yet Witney sees himself as a "catalyst" for member states to take more common decisions, promising to take "a leading role" in proposing new policy approaches on how a European defence equipment market might work and how it might be brought into being.

His greatest worry is that the US is spending about two and a half times more on defence than European countries combined, and five times more on defence research and technology. "In matters of technology I think Europe is engaged in competition with America," he adds.

That is our greatest worry. The talk is not of co-operation with the US, through Nato – which gets no mention from Witney – but of "competition". On the back of Schröder's recent statement in Munich, that Nato risked becoming outdated and was "no longer the primary venue where transatlantic partners discuss and co-ordinate strategies", this is yet more evidence of the growing emergence of a separate European "defence identity".

We are definitely seeing here a parting of the ways.

Tip of the iceberg

In the Telegraph today is an account of a bizarre incident in "a sleepy English village", where police and demolition men went "into battle" at a village villa housing hundreds of immigrant workers.

According to the Telegraph, the "battle" played out in Gosberton, near Spalding, Lincs, as council workers sought to demolish an illegal extension to a building used as a workers' hostel.

We are told that neighbouring residents awoke to Greek music blaring from a the "Mediterranean-style villa" as police and demolition contractors became involved in a stand-off the workers. Officers had a high-pressure water hose turned on them as they attempted to force entry through a makeshift barricade of wooden pallets.

Two arrests were made, including Alan Garrard, the gangmaster, who had developed the property for the past eight months from a two-up two-down house, without permission.

In the end, the confrontation was resolved relatively peacefully when a local Methodist minister, the Rev Maurice Perry, decided to walk into the property and negotiate. Twenty-seven Lithuanians and Latvians were then allowed to leave with their meagre possessions in suitcases, holdalls and bin liners.

All were processed by immigration officials and found to be legally entitled to work in Britain, but not to public funds, whence they were offered temporary accommodation in the village hall.

By coincidence, last night I was in the Lincolnshire town of Boston, not a million miles away from Gosberton, ostensibly to give a talk on behalf of the Bruges Group and the EU’s involvement in fishing and agriculture. And while the talk was well-received by the audience, before and afterwards, the most heated discussion was about one subject – immigration.

In a town of some 40,000 souls, Boston over the last few years has suffered the influx of an estimated 10,000 migrants, nearly all of EU member states, with high proportions of Greeks, Portuguese, Poles and Latvians.

Areas of the town are described as "no-go" areas, shops have signs which ask that no more than three workers enter at any one time – in an effort to curb the epidemic of shoplifting - and one pub even sports a "no English" sign in an attempt to stave off the violent disputes which are erupting between the indigenous population and the incomers.

No one I talked to would describe themselves as “racist”, the view most often being expressed that in a small town, such a huge influx of people – many of whom could not speak English – was simply too much to absorb.

What infuriated many was that the migrants seemed to be "above the law". Fishermen told me how, squeezed by increasingly restrictive measures, they were driven to harvesting mussels, whence their licenses and procedures were rigorously inspected by the growing ranks of officials, while migrant workers doing the same job seemed to be ignored by officialdom.

There was considerable bitterness that the problems of the community seemed to be ignored by "London", not least that there seemed to be absolutely no attempt at controlling or managing the influx, and the people I talked to were fully aware that this resulted from our membership of the EU, and the opening of our borders to all-comers.

Inevitably, I was speaking to a small and not necessarily representative sample of the local population, but the strength of opinion and sheer hostility surprised me.

However, while the main parties are beginning to allow “immigration” on to the agenda, none of them are addressing the issue of migrants from EU member states – and that seems to be the problem in these rural communities. It seems to me, therefore, that, come the general election, they could be in for a bit of a shock. Gosberton could be the tip of an iceberg.

Economic suicide

To commemorate day one of a prolonged process of our economic suicide- with the coming into force of the Kyoto treaty, the Independent has commissioned a piece from Stephen Byers, writing in his role of co-chair of the International Climate Change Task Force.

Byers' view is that Kyoto is not enough to tackle climate change – something that is so blindingly obvious that one wonders why he thought it necessary to say so, and the Independent needed to print it.

Having read the piece, however, I have decided that I will not inflict it on our readers, other than to record that the greenies, as represented by Byers, seem to have abandoned the idea of co-opting the US into their Kyoto suicide pact and are looking to the G8 to take the lead in forming an alternative means of committing suicide, which they hope the US will join.

This is confirmed by a piece in the Times which reports on this "breakaway group" which is planning a new global warming strategy based on scientific advances. Led by Blair, the idea is to invite the key developing industrial powers of China, India and Brazil to Britain's G8 summit this summer in his attempt to convince the United States that it should join the Lemmings.

All one can say is that some people never learn.

Playing Russian roulette in the Middle East

One of the (ostensible) reasons some European countries opposed the American-led Iraqi war, in which many other European countries took part, was that none of it had any meaning if the Palestinian problem was not resolved. How it was to be resolved they did not precisely say, intoning instead the mantra of “peace process”. (Beware of the word “process”, my friends.)

At the same time, what was clearly setting back the peace process was the determined EU support given to Chairman Yasser Arafat. That the man really was the biggest stumbling block both to peace in the area and freedom for the Palestinian people can be demonstrated by the speed with which matters have moved since his death.

There was a meeting between Mahmoud Abbas, the new leader of the Palestinian Authrority and Ariel Sharon. There are indications that extremists on both sides will be reined in and, more to the point, Abbas is showing every sign of cracking down on the terrorist groups and militias in Palestine. Arafat could not or, more likely, would not do that.

Abbas has announced that the war of Israel is all but over. This is not yet an official position but the movement is in the right direction, even though we have a long way to go before the supposed goal of a relatively peaceful Middle East and the two states, both more or less democratic, will learn to live next to each other.

A long way to go and not everyone wants to get there. For there have been other news from that area. First of all, Hezbollah, the Iranian-sponsored, armed and financed and Lebanese-based terrorist organization, has threatened to assassinate Abbas if he continues with his policy of conciliation.

They are not joking. Hezbollah is recruiting members of the old Al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade and is offering large amounts of money for the procurement of suicide/homicide bombers.

In Lebanon we see what might be the renewal of the civil war, the assassination of the former Prime Minister, Rafiq Hariri. Responsibility has not been established but it is worthy of note that Mr Hariri has been calling insistently for the withdrawal of the Syrian troops from Lebanon and the disarming of the Hezbollah.

Many people are assuming that President-for-life Assad was responsible for the assassination, either directly or indirectly through Hezbollah.

The situation is, thus, very tense and the West ought to be presenting a united front against terrorists and those who sponsor terrorism. And is it? Is it, heck.

The EU is refusing to put Hezbollah on its terrorist blacklist. Why? Well, France, backed by Spain and Belgium, is blocking the move. President Chirac has told the Israeli ambassador that it was “a complex question”. Well, how complex, precisely?

Hezbollah’s credentials as a terrorist organization is not exactly in doubt. It is not only recruiting among the Al-Aqsa, but also funding the Palestinian group Hamas, distinguished not only by its suicide/homicide attacks but also by the help it gave Chairman Arafat, the PA and Fatah in the oppression of the Palestinian people.

France is not precisely finicky in the way it deals with terrorists and suspected terrorists, arresting, imprisoning and bundling people out of the country at the slightest suspicion. Guantanamo returnees have not been sighted again.

Spain is grappling with two widespread terrorist problems, the home-grown ETA and Al-Qaeda, whose cells seem to have honeycombed the country even before 9/11. Again, it has been arresting and raiding with little thought for niceties of procedure and few people have actually blamed the Spanish authorities.

Belgium? Well, one can never be really sure what the Belgian government is up to but, presumably, it is saying yes sir, no sir, three bags full sir to President Chirac, terrified as it is of the Flemish threat. (Flemish threat? Gosh, the Lebanese should be so lucky.)

Indeed, France has actually stepped up its pressure on Syria to withdraw its troops from Lebanon, possibly even ahead of the forthcoming election. So what’s with Hezbollah? Well, there is this problem: the United States would like to proscribe the organization, as would Israel.

That means, that the French are against the idea as is, presumably, the government of Zapatero. In other words the usual argument kicks in: it does not matter what the reality is, we are against whatever it is the Americans want. Oh yes, and, of course, France is anxious to show that she and she alone can secure Syrian withdrawal.

The latter seems a little unlikely. As for the former, well, these are dangerous games. More than that elusive transatlantic friendship is at stake. Iran and Syria will fight against any possibility of Middle Eastern democracy, either directly, or through their terrorist proxies. Where are the European states going to position themselves?

Tuesday, February 15, 2005

Yes, the art market will leave Britain

I have a strong sense of déjà vue about the travails of the art market in the wake of the introduction of droit de suite. I first wrote about it about ten years ago, when the legislation was being discussed and the British Government swore blind that it would protect the flourishing British art market.

Since the measure was being introduced under the all-embracing aura of the Single Market it was voted through on QMV and the British Government was left with little on its hands. So much for how much power or influence we can have.

Well, the droit de suite is here with us or, at least, partly so, the second tranche being due in 2012. (If we are really unlucky we shall lose vast amounts of money as well as thousands of visitors because of the wretched Olympic Games just about the time we shall be losing vast amounts of money and thousands of well-heeled and free-spending visitors because the modern art market will have finally disappeared from these shores. Good planning.)

It is not just Britain that will suffer. The European Fine Art Foundation, which runs the world’s most important art fair, coincidentally, in Maastricht has commissioned and independent team of researchers and their report is gloomy reading.

According to Will Bennett, the Art Sales Correspondent of the Daily Telegraph, the report points to the fact that the modern and contemporary art market has been performing exceptionally well in Britain in the last four years.

But the introduction of the droit de suite, a sliding scale levy paid by the vendor of a work of art to a living artist or to an artist’s family for 70 years after death, 80 per cent of which is likely to go to descendants of artists like Picasso, Matisse or Soutine, none of whom are exactly on the breadline, will drive the business to the US and Switzerland.

The report says:

"The more valuable a painting becomes, the more likely it is that the owner will sell in a marketplace that does not charge droit de suite."
Evidence is not far to seek. France has already introduced the droit de suite. That is thought to be the reason for the auction of Belgian businessman René Gaffé’s collection in 2001, thought to have been secured by French auctioneers, eventually taking place in New York. It went for £50 million.

In the first place droit de suite will be levied on work of living artists. From 2012 it will extend to work of artists who have died within the last 70 years. This category will include a very large amount of high priced art.

The British Art Market Foundation has accepted that the first tranche of this harmful legislation is going through (there is not much else they can do, I suppose) but intend to fight against the second one.

How do they propose to do that, one wonders. Once EU legislation has been agreed on, a member state is legally bound to implement it. Will these people never learn?

One aspect of this sorry tale is rarely mentioned. Sotheby’s and Christie’s will simply transfer their operations to New York and have, no doubt, been planning to do so for a while. But what will happen to the presently flourishing smaller art galleries and auction houses? They, too, bring in a great deal of income, employ people, pay taxes, add to the country’s economy. They will not be able to relocate.

The "McLibel" travesty

Reported by the Independent today, and featured prominently on the BBC – quelle surprise – is the victory of the so-called "McLibel duo", Helen Steel and David Morris.

They have just won their case in the European Court of Human Rights, that the UK legal system breached the right to a fair trial and freedom of expression. This was because they were denied legal aid to defend themselves against a libel suit from McDonalds after the pair had distributed defamatory leaflets against the fast food chain and had refused – after multiple warnings – to desist.

Unable to afford their own lawyers, the pair defended themselves in what became the longest civil or criminal action in English legal history, lasting 314-days.

The oddest thing is that, during the course of the trial – and mainly because of it – the pair gained massive publicity for their cause – being elevated in the process from unknown activities to international figures, lauded by fellow campaigners throughout the world.

On that basis, the very fact that they were denied legal aid and were thus seen as the plucky Davids taking on the corporate Goliath, gained them immeasurable publicity and enabled them to put their case in a way that they could not even have dreamed of before the trial started.

So much publicity did they get, in fact, that the trial has been regarded as one of the worst corporate PR disasters of all time.

Thus, one can hardly agree with the ECHR that the lack of legal aid effectively denied the pair the right to a fair trial, and still less that it also breached their right to freedom of expression.

As to the fair trial, in my view the judge – as is required when dealing with defendants in person – was scrupulously fair. He bent over backwards in affording Steel and Morris every opportunity in presenting what was, in fact, a very thin case, as indeed did the plaintiff’s legal team.

Oddly enough, the threat to their case came from a much more insidious source. Of a technical nature, arguing over the merits of the claims in the leaflet, Steel and Morris needed the back-up of expert witnesses, with experience of the food industry.

From them, they got very little assistance, most experts refusing to help them on the basis that taking on McDonalds was not a career-enhancing move.

However, in their search for assistance, they did contact me and, even though I did not agree with much of what was on the offending leaflet, I agreed to assist them and, in fact, gave expert evidence in the trial. (When a television documentary was made after the event, I had the singular and amusing experience of seeing myself being portrayed by an actor with a thick Yorkshire accent, the assumption being that, living in Yorkshire, I must have been thus handicapped).

I took a considerable amount of criticism for my action but, as I said at the time, right or wrong, Morris and Steel deserved a fair trial – and for that they needed experts.

In the end, I believe they got their fair trial, and they got massive publicity and the opportunity to express themselves in spades. The only travesty now is that the ECHR judges found in their favour. And, as always, the long-suffering taxpayer is going to have to bear the cost.

That ghastly Mr MacShame

As a general rule, one is supposed to avoid ad hominem attacks, not least because it diminishes the force of one's argument.

However, coming from from the school of "rules are for the obedience of fools and the guidance of wise men", we are always prepared to make an exception for the egregious Denis MacShame, minister for Europe.

This truly ghastly man is at it again, this time in the online journal Epolitix – which is presumably the only place he can get published – attacking the "eurosceptic press" for "misleading" the British people over the EU.

This is from a man who's department, the FCO, has just produced the extraordinary tissue of lies in the guise of "myth rebuttals" which purports to put the record straight on the EU constitution.

In his article, MacShame complains of "an enormous information deficit" caused, he claims, by debate on Europe being focussed on "a political and ideological subject and not in terms of the facts". The second problem, hew identifies, “is that we have a press that is very ideologically engaged with anti-European politics."

He also has a go – predictably – at "the primitive anti-Europeanism of the Tory Party", which he claims “makes it less and less electable”. If the Conservatives are serious about becoming a major British party again they will have to, as Labour did, change their hostility to the EU and to the treaty," he asserts.

On the EU referendum campaign, he claims that "if you have time to talk to people and explain, their first degree of hostility to the EU, which is based on the myths they read in the majority of the papers, tend to disappear."

How he has the nerve to make this sort of claim is beyond us, but just to illustrate, once again, the brass neck of this man – as if it was needed – readers will recall Booker’s column last Sunday which noted that EU commission had opened a website dealing with the "myths" about which MacShame complains.

One such lifts from a Daily Mail report concerning the new rules for electrical installations in the home, which claimed, rightly, that DIY electrical work had been banned by "an EU edict".

However, according to the commission,

This "edict" is actually a set of voluntary standards adopted by the European Committee for Electrical Standardization, a non-EU body, made up of organisations from 28 European countries, including the British Standards Institution. It is a matter for national governments if they wish to legislate to enforce such standards.
This is not true. It is a lie. As we pointed out on this Blog, what in fact is going on is a poorly understood and little-advertised procedure whereby the EU is gradually harmonising technical laws in the Community, first introduced in 1983 and then amended in 1998 by an extraordinarily opaque directive (98/34/EC) "laying down a procedure for the provision of information in the field of technical standards and regulations".

What this Directive did was introduce what has been called the "new approach" to technical harmonisation.

The process was to continue to work through the EU standardisation bodies such as CEN and CENELEC, which would continue to churn out "European standards" but, instead of these then being turned into EU directives and regulations, this new directive required the various national standardisation bodies (such as the British Standards Institute) to confer "the status of a national standard to these standards" and "to withdraw any conflicting national standards."

This, we called "hidden integration", but, for the likes of MacShame, this is no doubt merely another "myth".

UN Thugs

Mark Steyn is in good form in the Telegraph today having another go at one of his favourite subjects – the UN tranzies, of whom he asks, are they "just a bunch of thugs?".

He starts, however, with a graphic comparison which raises another question. "It's a good basic axiom", Steyn writes, "that if you take a quart of ice-cream and a quart of dog faeces and mix 'em together the result will taste more like the latter than the former."

The question that arises, of course, is how does Steyn know this? We understand he had a pretty rough time in his early career, before he became rich and famous, but was it that rough?

Anyhow, the point he is trying to make – with some success – is that if you make the free nations and the thug states members of the same club, the danger isn't that they'll meet each other half-way but that the free world winds up going three-quarters, seven-eighths of the way.

This is a sort of variation on Gresham's law (Bad money drives out good), Steyn's thesis being that the good is contaminated by the bad. His piece is compelling reading in which he concludes that the UN creates a culture in which the free nations have met the thug states so much more than half way that they now largely share the dictators' view of their peoples.

With that, he takes a dim view of British officials who are trying to rationalise Oil-for-Fraud and other UN scandals observing that it is not just the underage Congolese girls who get corrupted by contact with the UN. Nor is it, we would observe, just the UN which exerts such a corrupting influence.

Denied boarding

In two days time, a particularly insane EU regulation is due to come into force, none other than Regulation (EC) No 261/2004 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 February 2004 "establishing common rules on compensation and assistance to passengers in the event of denied boarding and of cancellation or long delay of flights."

More commonly known as the "denied boarding" regulation, this has the superficially attractive objective of requiring airlines to pay a fixed scale of compensation to passengers who suffer delays to their flights, but there is no single provision emanating from the EU which illustrates the great divide between theory and practice. Nor is there a better example of the sledgehammer missing the nut.

In principle, of course, the legislation is a wonderful example of consumer law, protecting the downtrodden passenger from the grasping, capitalist airlines who take your money and then don't deliver the goods – who get you to the airport only to tell you that the flight has been delayed or, even worse, cancelled.

Certainly, this is the line taken by GMTV which, on its website, offers viewers the chance to appear on the programme to talk about their "travel nightmares", to coincide with the commencement of the regulation, which the station says, for most travellers it can't come soon enough

But what is so wrong with this, I hear you all asking. Anyone who has used airlines at all frequently have had their gruesome experiences and what is so wrong with making the airlines pay when they foul up?

Well, as always, the devil is in the detail. Firstly, most airlines already do pay compensation, and/or make alternative provisions for delayed passengers, including putting them up in hotels, all expenses paid, when flights are delayed. This is partly due to "market forces" - airlines work in a competitive market and it does not pay to upset customers, so they tend to look after them – and partly in conformity with the 1999 Montreal Convention, which sets out basic parameters for passenger compensation.

I recall once, travelling from Malta on an Air Malta flight, when the aircraft could not gain altitude and we had to return. It took two more tries, including a nerve-shattering take-off, aborted at the last minute, before the airline gave up and cancelled the flight, leaving us with an unscheduled extra day in Malta.

But the airline was so apologetic and treated us so well, including putting us up in a top-class hotel overnight, that none of us came away with anything other then the warmest feelings for the staff who had looked after us. No EU regulations were needed and nor would they have applied, as Malta was not then in the EU.

On the other hand, I recall arriving once at Charlerois airport, for the last Rynair flight of the day, after a gruelling day in the European parliament, only to find that the flight had been delayed and then, well after midnight, cancelled without notice. Passengers were left to their own devices, without even a hint of compensation.

I recall being so, so tired, and struggling to find a hotel for the remainder of the night, barely being able keep awake. But there was no feeling of recrimination. There had been an air-traffic glitch throughout Europe and Ryanair was as much a victim as we were. So, it cost me £50 for a hotel that night, plus the taxi, but for the £10 that the flight cost to London – when before Ryanair got started, it had cost up to £320 – who was complaining? You take the rough with the smooth.

And that's the rub. This legislation catches all the airlines, the cut-price carriers and the regular, scheduled airlines. Under the new rules, passengers denied boarding to a flight could be entitled to €250 for all flights of 1500 kilometres or less; €400 for all intra-Community flights of more than 1500 kilometres, and for all other flights between 1500 and 3500 kilometres, €600.

Thus, having paid £10 for a flight, a passenger could, under certain circumstances, be entitled to £150 or more in compensation because of a delay. But, as there ain't such a thing as a free lunch, and airlines are businesses not charities. There is only one place this money is going to come from – the passengers in the form of higher fares. But such are the anticipated costs of the regulations that some previously profitable airlines may be driven out of business – reducing consumer choice and driving them into the arms of higher cost carriers.

Then, those "certain circumstances" where airlines have to cough up are by no means clearly specified in the regulations. In many cases, airlines have to pay for circumstances entirely outside their control.

Thus, the EU, in providing what it claims to be "a high level of protection for passengers" is setting up a system that is going to cost passengers more, over terms, and is interfering in a system where the market already operates, forcing an unwanted and expensive burden on commercial carriers, for which, ulitmately, their customers will have to pay.

Unsurprisingly, the International Air Carrier Association (IACA), which represents 270 cut-price charter airlines, is bitching like mad. One IATA member, Arie Verberk, chief executive of Dutch charter airline Martinair, has estimated that his compensation costs for last year would have been €500,000, had the regulation applied.

You might expect airlines to protest, but their case is of sufficient merit for them to have gained a reference to the ECJ in the British High Court. Not least, they argued that the regulation denies air carriers any defence against claims for delays caused by extraordinary circumstances such as bad weather, or acts of third parties such as an Air Traffic Control strike.

But what is a shame is that mindless television hacks like those from GMTV, and others, are crowing that the regulations are good for passengers. They are not. They are madness and everyone, including the media, should be saying so.

Monday, February 14, 2005

ID Card Bill clears the House of Commons

This is meant to remind all our readers of the various rather desperate measures the government is adopting, nominally because of the terrorist threat, but really in pursuance of its own and the EU's agenda to control our lives.

It is a good principle in politics that freedom should be taken as the base and any infringement on it should be justified beyond reasonable doubt.

Alas, this is not a principle on which the House of Commons works on at the moment. The ID Card Bill has, in an amended form, has cleared the entire procedure and gone to the House of Lords, where we hope, their lordships will examine it a little more carefully than our elected representatives have done.

The final vote after the Third Reading was: 224 for with 64 against. Sharp-eyed readers will have noted that adds up to 288 votes. This means that 368 MPs could not be bothered to vote one way or another on something as profoundly serious as the introduction of an ID card in the United Kingdom.

They were about to rise for their half-term hols but that is not precisely an excuse. Unless, of course, they are hoping that the House of Lords and the tight legislative timetable caused by the forthcoming elections will save them from their own ignominy.

What do Russians prefer?

This does sound like one of those rather open-ended questions in a particularly lugubrious Russian poem. In fact, it is close to the one the nineteenth century poet Nekrasov did ask: Who can live happily in Russia? Our readers will not be surprised to hear that the answer after many verses of misery was: nobody. Nekrasov pretty well drank himself to death at a reasonably early age.

One of the web publications we are linked to, the wholly estimable EUObserver has decided to join the “let’s all knock America by saying how everybody prefers the EU” brigade.

An article by Elitsa Vucheva tells us that according to a poll conducted by the Yuri Levada Analytical Centre between 21 and 24 January in which 1600 Russian adults were asked, 74 per cent answered the rather bizarre question “Do you have positive or negative feelings towards the European Union” by saying that their feelings were positive. 14 per cent said they did not like it.

When it came to the USA, only 61 per cent said they had positive feelings towards it. (These were clearly not the people who told the BBC that they thought President Bush was the greatest threat to world peace since Genghis Khan.)

Well, I guess, this will not alarm the Americans unduly and the discrepancy between the figures may be accounted for by a certain tightening of rules on American visas issued to Russians after a number of high-profile fraud and criminal cases.

There is, however, another aspect to this: I have spoken to many Russians, read the newspapers regularly, have visited the country (until the Foreign Ministry decided not to give me a visa any more) and have taken part in various programmes for BBC Russian Service in Moscow.

The one lesson I have drawn from all that is the lack of knowledge and, indeed, interest of the European Union in Russia and among Russians. Europe they know and, no doubt, feel positive about. Individual countries they know and feel either positive or negative about (mostly positive). United States or America, ditto. But a question about the European Union would not evoke much of a mental echo.

I would dearly like to have a little chat with the people at the Yuri Levada Analytical Centre to find out what the responses were really before they were processed into a suitable data.

We have become more powerful…

"And for all of those that say, if you look at the last thirty years, we have lost power to Brussels, actually it isn’t true. In the last, certainly in the last eight years, as we, the Labour government, have been more involved in Europe, so we have become more powerful and more prosperous, better able, literally to implement a patriotic case for the European Union."

Jack Straw
Foreign Secretary

BBC Today Programme, 9 February 2005


A Treasury scheme to promote enterprise is in doubt because it has still not won state aid clearance from the European Commission, months after the decision was expected.

So reports The Times today, under the headline: "EU hold-up hits project to boost small firms".

And the scheme itself is not just a hole-in-the-corner little initiative, but a flagship project announced by Gordon Brown in December 2003, amid maximum fanfare. It was designed to plug the small business equity gap with privately managed commercial funds investing up to £2 million of private and public money into small, growth-orientated businesses.

There was only one problem at the time, which little Gordon had quite forgotten about. He had not obtained permission from his masters in Brussels, so his "Enterprise Capital Funds" scheme has not been able to start, leaving hundreds of businesses in limbo.

EU clearance had been expected last autumn and pilot schemes should have been running by the start of this year - already almost six months behind schedule. Now, all that is left for our impotent ministers to bleat from the sidelines, claiming that progress has been stalled by EU commission lawyers dragging their feet over the application for state aid.

Meanwhile, in a display of misplaced bravado, also recorded by The Times, Margaret Beckett, our pretend environment minister, is to announce new limits for the EU's emission trading scheme as it applies to the UK, despite being told by the commission that these new limits are illegal.

Negotiations between the Defra and the EU commission continue, but the commission is adamant that the original plan must apply, leaving Beckett no other option than to go running to the ECJ in an attempt to gain relief.

But, as we remarked in our earlier post, clearly, the UK government hasn't fully grasped the nature of its relationship with its master. When told to jump by our real environment minister, Mr Stravros Dimas, the correct response is: "how high?"

But never mind. According to Jack Straw, "…in the last eight years, as we, the Labour government, have been more involved in Europe, so we have become more powerful…".

The seven basic myths

Over FCO series of "myth rebuttals" on its website is now complete.

We have been analysing and deconstructing those rebuttals and, for the convenience of the readers, we now post the links on this single post. We will also provide a link on the sidebar, under FCO "myths", for ease of reference.

The seven basic myths are as follows:

Myth one: Britain would lose control over foreign policy under the constitutional treaty.

Myth two: The Constitutional Treaty will create a European Army.

Myth three: "Primacy" means that the EU controls our laws.

Myth four: The Charter of Fundamental Rights will be used to change Britain's labour laws.

Myth five: The constitution creates a European superstate.

Myth six: Europe will control our economy.

Myth seven: Qualified Majority Voting hands power to Brussels.

Readers might also care to visit the "Vote-No" website which also offers views on the FCO "myths". We will, of course, re-visit the issues raised from time to time.

"New Rumsfeld" meets "old Europe"

Famous for his dismissal of France and Germany as "old Europe" – two months before US-led forces invaded Iraq in March 2003, US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, has bearded the lion’s den and is now in Germany on an official visit.

Addressing a security conference of 250 senior diplomats and security experts in Munich, however, he side-stepped any criticism with hallmark charm and humour, attributing his earlier remark to “old Rumsfeld.”

But, if Rumsfeld wowed the conference, Schröder managed to put his foot in it, without being there, being too ill with influenza to attend. In a speech delivered for him by defence minister Peter Struck, he argued that "the environment for Atlantic cooperation has changed," calling for a drastic overhaul of Nato and a bigger voice for Europe

Described by The Independent as souring “carefully choreographed efforts to heal transatlantic wounds”, his text said that Nato risked becoming outdated and was "no longer the primary venue where transatlantic partners discuss and co-ordinate strategies".

The text proposed setting up a commission to propose improvements by the start of next year, and said "dialogue between the EU and the US neither reflects Europe's growing weight nor corresponds with new requirements of trans-atlantic co-operation".

The International Herald Tribune has Rumsfeld "brushing off" Schröder’s idea for a commission, declaring that: "We are already reviewing NATO's structures." In a clear put-down, he added, "Nato has a great deal of energy and vitality. I believe they are undertaking the kinds of reforms to bring the institution into the 21st century. The place to discuss transatlantic issues clearly is Nato."

Schröder, though, has his own agenda, not least his ambition for a seat on the UN Security Council, and his suggestion of "a high-ranking panel of independent figures from both sides of the Atlantic to help us find a solution" for dealing with disputes is startlingly similar to a panel advising the UN secretary general, Kofi Annan, on how to renew his organization.

Nevertheless, Schröder's proposals came as a surprise, both to Rumsfeld - and to Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, general secretary of NATO, who was also at the conference. In the wake of the visit by US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice, they are being seen as less than diplomatic, evoking a rebuke from fellow German, General Harald Kujat, chairman of NATO's military committee. "The proposals were clumsily formulated," he said.

They comes at a time when Bush is about to make his first visit to Europe since his re-election, in what is styled as an effort to mend trans-Atlantic relations, with a visit to the NATO headquarters in Brussels planned, where he hopes to shore up support from the other 25 member states for training the Iraqi security forces.

But, in a further rebuff to the US, German foreign minister Joschka Fischer has rejected any idea of a greater role for Nato in Iraq, in the context of delays in plans to increase the number of Nato trainers for Iraqi security forces.

Thus, while "old Rumsfeld" may be no longer, it looks very much as if "old Europe" is still very much in evidence.

Yet more UN scandals

Really, this is getting beyond a joke. When we on this blog joined the few other bloggers in documenting and analyzing the disgraceful behaviour of the United Nations as a whole and in separate instances, we seemed to be out on a limb. Even some of our readers (not many) criticized us. Now we appear to be in the vanguard of the development. Everybody’s doing it, doing it, doing it.

There is the ongoing and ever more entertaining saga of the food-for-oil scandal and the persistent questions of whether they will get Kofi Annan this time.

There is the appalling inability of the UN to provide immeidate aid after the tsunami, coupled with its present inability to get out now that the people there need to be able to rebuild their lives without the presence of highly paid aid officials and the persistent undermining of the local economy.

We now have a promising little row over the Egyptian head of the United Nations atomic energy agency, Mohammed ElBaradei, who is starting an unusual third term, despite or, more likely, because of his known closeness to the Iranian Mullahs and suspected involvement in the American elections against Bush.

Then there is the £1.6 million or so that has disappeared from the World Meteorological Organization together with the man, Mohammad Hassan, who appears to be responsible for the money’s curious behaviour. Mr Hassan, possibly deceased, possibly not, was a close associate of the organization’s previous secretary-general, the Nigerian Godwin Obasi. He, too, seems to be hard to reach, though he is still alive.

Mr Obasi’s successor, previously his deputy, Michel Jarraud, maintains that he is overhauling the entire agency and Jocahim Muller, the administrative director said in what must be a strong contender for the understatement of the year:

“There was relief when the new secretary-general took over. Twenty years was a long time for one man to be in charge. Mr Jarraud set out to replace an atmosphere of fear with dialogue.”
Dialogue with whom one wonders. Not the least extraordinary part of the story is that most of us did not even know that the World Metereological Organization existed and still have no clear concept of what it does with itself.

Furthermore, there are 15 other agencies dotted around the world (well, the more pleasant and attractive parts of the world). Congressman Henry Hyde is now calling for a rigorous review of all their activities and finances. Presumably, the UN will hold out as long as possible and, eventually, agree with ill grace. Then the fun will start. I predict that before this year is out the reputation of all these organizations will be in tatters.

Still, none of this is as shocking as the unravelling tale of the behaviour of the UN troops and aid workers in DR Congo, where unfortunate girls and women, some as young as 11 or 12, and, in at least one case, a young boy, were bribed or forced to have sex with the men in blue helmets.

One logistics officer, Didier Bourguet, has been arrested in France and is, apparently co-operating with the authorities, who have discovered many hundreds of pictures on the hard drive of his computer. (You do wonder about the intelligence of these people as well as their morals.)

One South African officers is also under investigation for assaulting his young male interpreter.

Others, to the supposed anger of the UN officials, have simply gone home and are not being tried or even investigated. Actually, the anger may be slightly phony. It is unlikely that all those UN officials really want a proper investigation in what amounts to a scandal that in its political implications may dwarf the food-for-oil one.

The American TV network, ABC has put together and screened and extended programme about the story of the UN in DR Congo and there seems to be little real attempt to investigate the crimes or punish the wrong-doers. Presumably, the network extends too wide and takes in too many people, some in high positions.

All ABC could do was to repeat several rather feeble and clearly unsubstantiated promises from William Swing, now head of the UN peace keeping mission to DR Congo, that the whole matter will be cleared up and the UN’s act cleaned up.

In the meantime the unfortunate traumatized children have had no help. Many of them have been left with babies and these are adding another layer of problems in a country that has too many already. (Incidentally, the journalists of ABC refer to DR Congo as being one of the poorest in the world. It has had constant war going on for years but as for being one of the poorest – DR Congo has the richest mineral deposits on earth.)

All these multiplying scandals lead back to the same problem. The UN, that has starry aims to become a world government, is riddled with corruption and cannot be otherwise. It wields a great deal of power and has a huge amount of money at its disposal. But it is responsible and accountable to no-one.

That lack of responsibility extends from SecGen Annan through the highly paid and uncontrolled bureaucrats all the way down to the soldiers and aid workers on the ground. Many of them represent countries where the supposed guiding principles of the UN: liberty, democracy, human rights are, in any case, non-existent.

Which raises an interesting question. As our readers may recall, there were numerous attempts on the part of the international great and the good to pronounce that the citizens of the world voted against Bush. How the citizens of countries that have no elections for their own governments could have voted for the president of another country is somewhat mysterious.

Even more mysterious is the silence of all these great and the good on the subject of the would-be world government the UN. Should not the citizens of the world, whoever they may be, given a vote on the wannabe government of the world? Why don’t we start in DR Congo or Rwanda and ask the people there what they think of this mighty organization?

Sunday, February 13, 2005

Myth seven: qualified majority voting hands power to Brussels

The FCO has posted what is mercifullythe last of its myth rebuttals on its website. This went up yesterday, the "myth" being: "Qualified Majority Voting hands power to Brussels".

The "facts", according to the FCO, are that "National Governments make the decisions". Qualified Majority Voting (QMV) applies to national governments negotiating in the Council. It is national Ministers who vote and decide on European policy, not 'Brussels'.

Once again, however, we are not dealing with facts, but lies. National governments do not make the decisions. As the FCO says, the Council does… in this case the Council of Ministers.

What the FCO is doing is eliding the two, but the Council is an EU institution, bound by the rules of the constitution, acting within the framework of EU law and subject to the European Court of Justice.

Furthermore, the glosses over the plural: “national governments”. That means that all the national government of the EU – all 25 of them, within the framework of the Council – make decisions which affect the UK. In other words, we are subject not to the decisions of our own elected government, but to decisions of 25 governments, 24 of which we did not elect and had no part in electing.

As to the phrasing: "It is national Ministers who vote and decide on European policy, not 'Brussels'", yet again we are dealing with advanced "weasel wordery". What the FCO asserts is simply not the case but, in making the assertion, it does have the aid of the constitution. This, in Article I-23 does state that the Council shall "carry out policy-making… as laid down in the constitution".

However, in only one instance does the constitution specifically set out a policy-making role for the Council. That is in relation to the common foreign and security policy and then the Council is empowered only to act within the framework set by the European Council, which in turn must work within the framework set by the constitution.

In respect of the areas where the Union has exclusive competence, which comprise the customs union; competition rules; monetary policy for the member states whose currency is the euro; conservation of marine resources; the common commercial policy; and the framing of certain international agreements, the Commission is the policy-making body.

Furthermore, that policy-making remit extends to areas of shared competence, where the commission decides it will act, which comprises internal market; aspects of social policy; economic, social and territorial cohesion; agriculture and fisheries, the environment; consumer protection; transport; trans-European networks; energy; the area of freedom, security and justice; and common safety concerns in public health matters.

The commission also sets Union policy in the areas of research, technological development and space, and in development co-operation and humanitarian aid, except that member states are allowed also to have their national policies.

In all those areas, the full measure of the Commission’s roles can be seen in the constitution, and in particular Title V, Chapter 1 of Part 1. Consider:

Article I-34 (1) European laws and frameworks laws shall be adopted, on the basis of proposals from the commission, jointly by the European parliament and the Council under the ordinary legislative procedure as set out in Article III-396.
and

Article I-35 (3) The Council shall adopt recommendations. It shall act on a proposal from the Commission in all cases where the Constitution provides that it shall adopt acts on a proposal from the Commission…
Now look at the powers of the Commission, set out Article I-26.

1. The Commission shall promote the general interest of the Union and take appropriate initiatives to that end. It shall ensure the application of the Constitution, and measures adopted by the institutions pursuant to the Constitution. It shall oversee the application of Union law under the control of the Court of Justice of the European Union. It shall execute the budget and manage programmes. It shall exercise coordinating, executive and management functions, as laid down in the Constitution. With the exception of the common foreign and security policy, and other cases provided for in the Constitution, it shall ensure the Union's external representation. It shall initiate the Union's annual and multiannual programming with a view to achieving interinstitutional agreements.

2. Union legislative acts may be adopted only on the basis of a Commission proposal, except where the Constitution provides otherwise. Other acts shall be adopted on the basis of a Commission proposal where the Constitution so provides.
From all of the above, could anyone honestly say that, "It is national Ministers who… decide on European policy, not 'Brussels'"?

As it stands, therefore, the Commission essentially sets the agenda and the Council reacts to it. But what are the decisions about?

Here is the rub. The treaties set out areas in which the Union may act, but the power transfer does not actually occur until there is a legislative act. And which institution, in the first place, decides on the nature, content and scope of the legislative acts? - the commission, of course.

In this context, the decisions made by the Council are confined to whether or not to give the Commission the powers it asks for, with or without amendments, which the commission if free to accept or reject. And once the power is given to the Council, it has no further role. The power belongs to the Commission and it can act entirely without reference to the Council.

Now, herein lies the problem. The assertions are easily made. Their deconstruction has taken a considerable volume of text. Brevity, in this instance, favours the liar, on which the FCO also relies in its next assertion, that: "Majority Voting helps Britain get what it wants". Says the FCO:

Removing national vetoes helps the UK push reform in Europe. For example, without Qualified Majority Voting we could not have secured important reforms to the Common Agricultural Policy or the liberalisation of European energy markets. We are rarely outvoted.

What ever happened to the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth? Yes, it is true that QMV can help the UK get what it wants, although it could get much of that if it was not shackled by EU membership. But, within the framework of the EU, it also means that the other countries – all 24 of them – can get what they want, even if the UK objects.

As for the UK rarely being outvoted, this claim is disingenuous as it does not reflect the way the EU works. Basically, if there is any danger of the UK being outvoted, it will either abstain or even vote for the proposal – anything to avoid the ignominy of being outvoted.

So the lies continue, as with the next FCO assertion which invites us to look at what the new areas of QMV cover. Many of the changes in the new Treaty are technical changes, it claims. Yes, again, there is some truth here but many are not "technical", such as extending QMV to the co-ordination of economic policy.

The Government, in its commentary on the constitution, lists 63 areas of additional QMV – not including economic policy – which include such high-spending areas such as space policy, the European Research Area, Transport (including road safety) police co-operation, Europol, urgent financing of CFSP measures, and even the appointment of the Union Minister for Foreign Affairs (Art I-28).

Through this latter provision, the UK could end up being represented by an EU foreign minister whose appointment it had not agreed.

Concluding a very long piece, we now deal with the two remaining FCO arguments. The first is that: "The new voting system better reflects the UK's relative size". That may be the case, on the population basis. But all this means is that the UK vote increases from nine to 13 percent

Finally, says the FCO, "We keep the veto in key areas". The UK insisted that unanimous agreement is still required in key areas of national interest including defence, foreign policy, tax and social security. Yes, but…

We will deal with this issue in a separate post.

Democratic legitimacy

The news that the overall turnout in the Iraqi elections reached 58 percent, only one percent less than the turnout in the last UK general election, has somewhat counfounded the naysayers - who seemed so desperate to have the elections fail.

And of course, with the Euro-election turnout at 40 percent, this is a result which would have had most MEP crowing with glee had their electorates responded in like manner.

A tidying-up exercise

I do not normally have much time for Rod Liddle – former editor of the BBC Radio 4 Today programme - but this week in this Sunday Times column he has done us a useful service with a piece entitled: "Mood music for drifting into a Eurostate".

"Confused about the breadth and scope of the proposed constitution for the European Union?", he asks. "Worried about how you should vote in the referendum next year?"

In a thoroughly ironic vein, he then suggests that Peter Hain could help: Here's what the leader of the House of Commons said about it within the space of a few months in late spring 2003:

This is not a major change... there is no need for a referendum. (On PM, the BBC Radio 4 programme.)

I am not saying it has got no substantial constitutional significance, of course it will have. (In the House of Commons.)

Our task is nothing less than the creation of a new constitutional order for a new, united Europe. (In the Financial Times.)
There, I hope that’s cleared things up, writes Liddle.

Referring to Hain's claims that the constitution is nothing more than a "tidying-up exercise" - a description endorsed by Straw – Liddle notes that there are different levels of "tidying-up exercise". There is the sort you undertake after you have had a few friends around and your wife's due back within the hour. "Then there's the sort of 'tidying-up exercise' that happened to Hong Kong in 1997 or the Sudetenland in 1938."

This is not sufficient, Liddle believes to support an outright accusation that Hain and Straw are lying through their teeth. They could be employing the subtle literary device of "litotes".

Litotes, the dictionary tells us is a form of understatement in which an affirmative is expressed by the negative of the contrary (as in "not a bad singer"). This form is current in Yorkshire, where the highest form of praise is the expression "not bad", but one suspects that Liddle is either being charitable or too clever by half by attributing "litotism" – if that is a word - to the Hain-Straw duo (perhaps it should be a Straw-Hain?).

Anyhow, Liddle continues his theme, recalling that Keith Vaz, erstwhile minister for Europe had once described the EU charter of fundamental rights as having “about as much legal status as The Beano” and, while in a mood for recollection, he recounts a little incident that happened four years ago.

This, he asserts, shows you quite a lot about the government's behaviour over the EU constitution, its general trustworthiness and its attitude to people or institutions that question its intentions. Back in November 2000, he writes:

I was editor of the Today programme. One morning we ran an investigation into a document commissioned by the European commission through the University of Florence with the help of Professor Alan Dashwood, a Cambridge don. It was, we said on the programme, part of a potential blueprint for an EU constitution. Dashwood agreed.

At that time the government was adamant it would not sign up to anything called a constitution. As far as ceding power to Brussels was concerned its line was "this far and no further". A constitution implied that more power would be ceded, so such a thing could not be on the agenda, we were told.

The reporter who carried out the investigation was Andrew Gilligan. As soon as his report was transmitted, all hell broke loose. The BBC received three furious complaints, almost identical in tone and content, from John Williams, the head of press at the Foreign Office, a pencil-necked EU bureaucrat called Jonathan Faull and a certain Alastair Campbell.

This document was old news, they screamed — and in any case did not suggest preparations were afoot for an EU constitution. At the morning lobby briefing, on 29 November, Andrew Gilligan was attacked by Godric Smith, one of Campbell's 10 Downing Street scullions. "Gullible Gilligan," he told the lobby hacks, "falling for the Eurosceptic agenda."

The letters of complaint to the BBC continued into 2001 until the broadcaster, with commendable resolve, finally told them to piss off for good and all. The document was nothing more than a tidying-up exercise, the public was assured. It just ties together documents and treaties, loose ends, things like that.
"Of course," writes Liddle, "we now know that a constitution was planned. It did indeed involve a considerable loss of sovereignty and the document we had revealed formed part of the blueprint, just as Gilligan had alleged."

This account is extremely helpful. The docment to which he refers was the second of two reports, the first having been delivered to the commission in May 2000. It was entitled "A basic treaty of the European Union" and was discussed in a commission document in July 2000. It was then published in the November. Many of the changes suggested by this Florence University report were actually incorporated into the final draft of the constitution. But I wonder if Liddle realises just quite how long the constitution had been planned? Like, since 1942?

Four years down the line, Liddle continues, when Jack Straw talks about the proposed EU constitution he assures us it stands for "this far and no further". Despite the fact that it involves the creation of an EU foreign minister, insists EU law is supreme over national law and, in many cases, ends the single country veto.

But then, as we have seen, when new Labour talks about the EU it always tells the public "this far and no further". And then, quietly, it goes further and further.

This, I believe, is a highly significant comment, not least because it picks up on my text delivered on the BBC Today programme last week when I charged:

This constitutional treaty is part of an ongoing process – it is just one more step in a project aimed at creating a government of Europe, devised by the political élites, without the informed assent of their peoples.
The more I think about this, and the reaction to it, the more I believe that this is the Achilles heel of the Europhile argument. As evidenced by the Will Hutton piece in The Observer today, the Europhiles (or one faction of them) are desperate to play down the significance of the EU constitution, hence Hutton’s comment:

Despite the rabid opposition, it [the constitution] essentially codifies existing procedures, entrenches the power of the UK, France and Germany and tries to bring about more efficient decision-making.
Liddle has it right when he asks the question: “How are we to lay our cynicism aside when faced with government ministers whose answers shift with the wind?”, offering the response: "It's a terribly unfashionable thing to say, but the old Claude Cockburn maxim: 'why is this bastard lying to me?' still seems to carry a bit of force." He concludes:

Call me cynical and disaffected if you like, but I have the suspicion that were you to ask Peter Hain if he thought Camilla Parker Bowles should become Queen of England following her marriage to Prince Charles, his answers would be as follows, dependent upon who was asking the question: a) yes. b) no. c) It is ridiculous to suggest there will be any such thing as a "marriage". It is simply a tidying-up exercise.
I think we can do a deal here. If Hain will admit the forthcoming royal marriage is a "tidying up exercise", we will accept that description for the EU constitution.

Everyone is wrong – except Will Hutton

Two broadsheets today, The Sunday Telegraph and The Sunday Times feature Alan Milburn's comment that Blair could quit over if he loses the EU referendum poll.

Actually, it is not exactly the case that Milburn volunteered this information. Reading the Telegraph story, it seems more the case that he "refused to rule out the possibility" of Blair quitting – which puts something of a different slant on it. The Times puts it even clearer. To the question of whether Blair would resign if the poll went against him, he simply replied: "Let's see what happens in the referendum."

The comment came during a BBC radio interview and the Telegraph has it that Gordon Brown and other potential Labour leadership candidates would be studying it closely. So we're back to the "soap opera".

Will Hutton, in The Observer, however, confronts head-on this "received wisdom" that Blair "has become a political corpse", expressing the view that the result of the referendum is far from a foregone conclusion "What if he won?", he asks.

With unrestrained chutzpah (we seem to be using that word rather a lot lately), he mocks the "commentariat! – of which he is a founder member – for always getting it wrong, and then gives nine reasons why the "calamity scenario" of a "no" vote in the referendum could be wrong.

His thesis is basically that New Labour is a "coalition of the centre and moderate liberal left" and represents the new majority in British politics. They are the "One Nation" majority”.

Against that is aligned the Conservatives "losers", UKIP, the BNP, the left of the Labour movement, right-wing businessmen and zealots in the conservative press in opposing the treaty. Their previous predictions of Armageddon which then do not happen have established the Conservative party as lunatic, so they are going to be more cautious about the constitution.

Add to that, "the politics of the EU are changing", with the EU commission unashamedly pro-growth, pro-employment and wanting to shed its reputation for regulations. And even the US "now strongly supports integration and even the EU constitution", so it is going to become very much harder to portray the EU as the enemy of liberty.

Against that, "facts will out" as television and radio, under much more pressure to portray reality accurately, will be forced to hold the wilder claims of the Eurosceptics. The "One Nation" majority will begin to wonder if they are not the victims of scaremongering and will start to listen to "influential intellectuals" such as Mark Leonard, who make the case for the European Union.

Then, the "pro-Europeans", who have not yet constituted an effective campaigning coalition, will come storming through after the general election, spearheaded by CBI director-general Digby Jones, who will make a "powerful pro-European case from business", while TUC leader Brendan Barber will speak equally strongly for organised labour. Meanwhile, the Labour and Liberal Democratic leadership, together with prominent Conservatives (Chris Patten, Kenneth Clarke and some younger bloods) will weigh in.

It will feel like the majority of level-headed One Nation Britain will be for the constitution, says Hutton.

To give the poll a fair wind, the referendum will be held as late as possible next year, after all the other 24 states have voted yes, diminishing the force of the claim that we can vote no and renegotiate the treaty. This will position the “no” vote as a vote to have a more semi-detached relationship or even leave the EU. And, to cap it all, one of the opinion polls gives the antis only a two percent lead.

Declares Hutton, "this referendum can be won." He concludes: "If so, it will be one of the sweetest moments in British politics for years, cementing a progressive consensus and Britain's membership of the European Union alike. Tony Blair, famously a lucky politician, may be about to get lucky again.”

We are encouraged by this prognosis, from a man who is so often wrong. What is particularly amusing is that Hutton, having so virulently portrayed the US as the "enemy of liberty", now calls in aid that self-same US, the apparent support of which makes it "very much harder to portray the EU as the enemy of liberty."

However, we would agree with Hutton on one thing, that: "the result of the referendum is far from a foregone conclusion." There is much work to do.

Booker

For a change, Booker’s picture story in his column today has nothing directly to do with the EU, although there is a delicious, EU-related link with the Metric Martyrs judgement. It concerns a fight-back against the growing scourge of “fixed penalties” issued by an increasing number of public authorities, invoking the Bill of Rights. It is, therefore, well worth reading.

Of equal interest is Booker’s second story, which concerns what the Government describes as “a small, technical and non-controversial” Bill now being nodded through Parliament.

This will give the equivalent of diplomatic immunity to the employees of a range of ‘international organisations”, mostly organs of the EU. The “privileges and immunities” it grants will be enjoyed not just by staff members of these bodies, but to all members of their families and ‘households’.

Although questioning of this curious Bill has been led by the tireless Eurosceptic Lord Pearson of Rannoch, it has raised the eyebrows of even such a committed Europhile as Lord Wallace of Saltaire. He was surprised to discover that, since his wife is a director of the Robert Schuman Centre, part of the European University Institute, he will share her “immunity from domestic taxation” and other privileges, as her “dependent spouse”.

The danger of this Bill, according to Lord Wallace, is that it will create “two classes of people- those of us who are subject to domestic law and pay our taxes and parking fines, and an increasing number of people who do not”. While insisting he is a “strong supporter of the further development of the European Union”, he regards “the powers, privileges and status of the Commission and many of its agencies with mixed feelings”, fearing that “there is a real danger of a popular backlash against the emergence of this privileged elite”.

The significance of this is that, as Lord Wallace himself pointed out, there are ever more of these EU bodies whose staff enjoy privileges above national law. In response to a question from Lord Pearson, the Government itself only named 28, ranging from the European Railways Agency and the European Plant Variety Office to the European European Monitoring Centre for Racism and Xenophobia, although the Foreign Office concedes its list will have to be updated “as new bodies are added”.

What the Foreign Office would never explain, however, is how these fast-proliferating organs in many ways now represent the true government of our country. Just why therefore the privilegentsia which works for them should be granted the immunities traditionally accorded to diplomats of a foreign power is likely to inspire not just puzzlement but, as Lord Wallace suggests, very great resentment.

For his third story, Booker recounts how, in cranking up its propaganda campaign for the EU constitution, the EU commission has opened up a new section of its website under the title “Get Your Facts Straight”.

This is dedicated to countering all the dreadful lies about the EU peddled by journalists in the British press.

A typical "Euromyth", claims the Commission, is that the EU plans to ban famous advertising slogans such as "Guinness is good for you". Typical Eurosceptic lies, it says. “Slogans like ‘Guinness is good for you’ will still be with us. In fact the EU has no plans to introduce any new legislation at all”.

Martin Callinan MEP, a Tory who sits in the relevant committee of the European Parliament, sends me the text of a regulation currently going through the system which states that “beverages containing more than 1.2 percent by volume of alcohol” shall not “bear health claims of any kind”. It will become illegal for any “food or nutrient” to make claims implying that it provides “general non-specific benefits” or promotes “overall good health and well-being”.

In other words, it is perfectly true that to use the slogan “Guinness is good for you” is to become a criminal offence - and when the Commission says this is a ‘myth’ what it really means, as on so many other issues, is the precise opposite.

The final story has absolutely nothing to do with the EU. It cones under the heading: “you couldn’t make it up”. Writes Booker:

Doctors in Essex have been startled to receive from the ‘Essex Public Health Resource Unit’ a booklet entitled ‘Information Pack’. When they open it, they find its 34 glossy pages are blank. When the GP who sent it to me enquired what was the purpose of this gift, he was told it was “for making notes”. It is good to know that all those billions of our money devoted by Gordon Brown to the NHS are being so wisely spent.
Actually, I though it might be an EU commission publication, giving all the reasons why the organisation is democratic.

Figures to juggle with

What would we do without eurofacts, its editor Gerry Frost and the amazing Ian Milne, who manages to crunch numbers faster than most of us get through a bowl of cereal?

They have now started a new series of Data Sheets. The first one deals with that perennially fascinating subject: just how much do we pay over to the EU.

Here are the figures based on the official information, printed in The Pink Book 2004:

In 2003, Britain’s gross contribution was £13,121 million, which works out at £252 million a week, £36 million a day and £1½ million an hour.

In the same year gross receipts amounted to £8,310 million, which worked out at £160 million a week, £23 million a day and £1 million an hour.

Which brings us to the net contribution, of some interest, I should have thought to all those who grandly pronounce that the EU would be much better off without Britain, particularly if they happen to be French, Irish, Greek or Spanish:

In 2003 Britain’s net contribution was £4,811 million, which works out at £93 million a week, £13 million a day and £½ million an hour.

Saturday, February 12, 2005

A message from Mr Tony Bennet of Veritas

We have received the following communication from Mr Tony Bennet, a non-office holder in the newly emergent party, Veritas, one-time researcher for Robert Kilroy-Silk Esq, which we reproduce below, without comment.

Readers will note the following sentence near the end of the communication:

Unless we have a swift response from both of you, I will have to notify your respective hosters and ask them to suspend the services to you.

Message as follows:

To: Richard North and Robert Oulds, Bruges Group

"IN VERITAS, ISLAMOPHOBIA"

I write with reference to the attached article, 'In Veritas, Islamophobia', which has appeared on your respective websites during the past week.

You have reproduced an article from the Guardian newspaper on 3 February substantially about me.

You need to be aware that the article contains four significant factual inaccuracies about me. These inaccuracies have been taken up with the Guardian Newspaper and the Press Complaints Commission.

A similar complaint has been made against the Observer Newspaper and the Press Complaints Commission about an article last Sunday which recycled the Guardian allegations.

The current position (today, Friday 10th) is that the Observer has consented to every word of a correction I have sought and the Press Complaints Commission has upheld my complaint. I am awaiting a decision from the Guardian but I expect it to be the same; after all, they are sister newspapers.

The four inaccuracies drawn to the Guardian's attention were as follows:

Statement 1: “A key member of Robert Kilroy-Silk’s new political party…”

Correction: I am not a ‘key’ member. I hold no office within Veritas. I merely performed some administrative tasks in order to register the Party with the Electoral Commission.

Statement 2: “Anthony Bennett was fired from the UK Independence Party last year…”

Correction: I have never been ‘fired ‘ by the U.K. Independence Party.

Statement 3: “..publishing a pamphlet which described the Prophet Muhammad as a paedophile”

Correction: I reproduced the historical fact – accepted as such by all leading Islamic scholars and featured in a collection of Islamic ‘holy’ books called the Hadith – that one of Muhammad’s brides, Aisha, was eight years old (possibly nine) when their marriage (they were engaged when she was six) was consummated. I did not ‘describe Muhammad as a paedophile’. [Incidentally, these same Islamic scholars accept that Muhammad was either 53 or 54 when this marriage was consummated]

Statement 4: “Mr Bennett [was] banned last year from holding any UKIP office for two years…”

Correction: During ‘last year’ (2004), not only was I not banned from holding office, I was twice a candidate for UKIP – once in the Harlow District Council election in June, gaining a 20% share of the vote, and a second time in a County Council election in December, gaining a 10.5% share of the vote. These elections and the results are of course a matter of record and you may check the results with the respective Returning Officers.

On the allegation that my contact with Mr Anderson tars us with the brush of ‘racism and Islamophobia’ (paragraph 3 of the article), these are wholly unjustified personal slurs for which you have no evidence. On the claim of Islamophobia, I spent a considerable amount of time last year and the year before assisting a Muslim man I have known in Harlow for over 20 years - someone I helped many times when I was the town’s Principal Welfare Rights Adviser (1978-87). I assisted Mahmood Siddiqui to claim one of the largest-ever compensation awards for racial discrimination (reported in the press, including I think in your newspaper) from the Royal Mail, at an Employment Tribunal. This included representing him at the Tribunal and accompanying him to the Commission for Racial Equality in London. Not, I venture to suggest, the actions of someone whom the Guardian newspaper successfully portrays as ‘racist’ and ‘Islamophobic’.

Talk also to my long-standing ex-Labour Councillor friend in the town, Feroz Khan, another Muslim. Or the Bangladeshi Muslim family who have for 20 years sent me and my family a Christmas card out of gratitude for the help I gave them, in respect of their Downs Syndrome son, to prevent Social Services removing him from their care. I expect much better journalistic standards than this from a British broadsheet newspaper.

I therefore require you to print..." [REST SNIPPED]

Now I come to the second part of your article, where you allege that a leading member of VERITAS is guilty of 'virulent anti-Semnitism' and beig a 'holocaust-denier'. We know precisely to whom you are referring. We also know the accusation to be baselees. There is no evidence whatsoever that you could produce to substantiate it. It is an adverse reflection on both of you that the allegations were even raised. Both you and the Bruges Group must withdraw those allegations.

The whole article must be removed from your respective websites, including the reference to 'dubious characters'. I am sure we could all think of people with records that we might describe as 'dubious'. In this context, however, you are branding VERITAS as having amomgst its leaders racists, Islamophobes and holocast-deniers.

Unless we have a swift response from both of you, I will have to notify your respective hosters and ask them to suspend the services to you.

A copy of this letter is being retained.

I have left a message for Robert Oulds on the Bruges Group number but no-one has replied yet.

Tony Bennett
01279 635789
In view of the above, we will be removing the article to which Mr Bennet objects from our archives.

Our new masters and transparency

For some years now a battle has gone on in the House of Lords about the question of former EU Commissioners and their pensions.

In January Lord Pearson of Rannoch put down a written question asking Her Majesty’s Government

“… what are the pension arrangements for former European Union Commissioners,including the amounts paid”.
Former European Union Commissioners can be seen from a long way off, according to another eurosceptic peer: they are the people who, because of their ever increasing girth brought on by all that jollification at the taxpayers’ expense, occupy two or three seats wherever they happen to be.

Presumably, the government does not see it that way. Baroness Symons of Vernham Dean wrote the followint reply:
“Former European Union Commissioners are entitled to a pension from the day they reach 65 of 4.5 per cent of the commissioner's final basic salary for each whole year of service in the Commission plus one-twelfth of this amount for each additional month's service, subject to a maximum of 70 per cent of the final basic salary. The pension is subject to Community tax and exempt from national taxes. Former Commissioners may start drawing their pensions from the age of 60,subject to the application of a coefficient ranging from 70 per cent at age 60 to 95 per cent at age 64. Since 1 July 2004, the basic salary of a Commissioner has been 18,233 euros a month, for Vice Presidents 20,259 euros a month, and for the President 22,366 euros a month.”
The invaluable fortnightly eurofacts did the necessary calculation and came to the conclusion that if a former Commissioner, say Neil Kinnock, who was also Vice President, waits till he is 65, he will receive a pension of (at present rates) £76,503 before Community tax.

What sort of a pension fund would most people have to have to get that kind of dosh? Please note that the former Commissioners are exempt from national taxation, cannot have their pension fund raided by greedy Chancellors of the Exchequer and pay only the minimal Community tax.

But then Commissioners and Commission employees are exempt from a great many things, as we have already noted and shall continue unravelling on the blog.

There is another aspect to this. It is customary for peers to declare interest if they are speaking on a subject somehow affected by that interest. Thus, the Countess of Mar, for instance, always scrupulously declares that together with her husband she runs a small farm of goats, sheep and a few poultry as well as selling goat cheese at farmers’ markets. (It happens to be the world’s best goat cheese but she need not declare that.)

That is hardly an income in the £76,000 plus bracket. Similarly, other peers declare whatever minor interests they or their spouses or, indeed, other members of the family may have, financial or otherwise.

There is only one exception. Former Commissioners need not and, therefore, never do declare that they have received huge salaries together with perks in the past and continue to receive enormous pensions after their retirement, when they speak on matters to do with the EU.

Incidentally, Lord Pearson’s question did not deal with the sizeable sums Commissioners receive to help them to relocate and to adjust to normal life after the flesh pots of Brussels.

As I said, a long battle on the subject has been going on. So far, the government and its minions have refused to acknowledge that a Commissioner’s pension is an interest to be declared. After all, their sage opinions and pronouncements are not going to be affected by anything so paltry as £76,503 per annum.

To boldly recycle…

There has some considerable amusement in Eurosceptic circles – and I dare say others – at the news that the EU Constitution is to be sent into space - carried by cosmonauts to the International Space Station. We are told that a gold-bound copy of the document will go into orbit with a Russian rocket taking off from Kazakhstan in April.

We are not sure whether that is "gold-bound" or "gold plated", but perhaps the latter only applied to the British version. But this has not stopped UKIP's director of communications, Mark Croucher, from enjoying the news hugely.

He has told the BBC that he is "completely in agreement with the European Commission that the far reaches of outer space are the best place for the European constitution," rather predictably adding, "I only wish there was more space on the craft that will take them into orbit, so all the copies could go."

However, this option will not meet with the approval of former environment commissioner Margot Wallström, now the EU’s communication commissioner. In her Blog recently, she registered her concern that some countries were seriously considering sending waste to outer space – unable to cope with the amount. Recycling, she thought, might not be such a bad idea.

Well, there's your chance Margot. Get recycling.

Myth Six: Europe will control our economy

Posted yesterday by the FCO on its website, this "myth" rebuttal is perhaps the most dishonest of them all – and that it saying something.

On offer is the "myth": Europe will control our economy”, yet the first issue that the FCO addresses has nothing directly to do with the management of our economy. It simply claims that: "our rebate remains protected", adding, "We keep a veto over the UK's contributions to the EU budget. That means we can block any attempt to end our rebate."

Granted, the rebate issue is important and contentious but in relation to the issue which the FCO itself purports to address, this is hardly relevant. In more prosaic terms, it is as if a big, burly man had just pushed his way into the driving seat of your car, shoving you into the passenger seat, only for him to tell you that you still had control of the radio.

This analogy is perfectly appropriate in the context of the FCO response as, tucked on as the last section of its "rebuttal", it poses the apparently anodyne question: "What does 'economic co-ordination' mean?"

Answering its own question, it states that:

Article I-15 says 'The Member States shall co-ordinate their economic policies within the Union'. This happens in the European Union now. It obviously makes sense for countries within the world’s largest trade bloc to discuss economic policies.
Many times we have explored on this Blog the nature of lies, referring to the three ways by which a lie can be conveyed: act, default and omission. Here, the act is by omission, but the lie is real and palpable.

Yes, co-ordination of economic policy "happens in the European Union now", but macroeconomic issues are largely carried out on a largely voluntary, intergovernmental basis through the European Council – the heads of states and governments – through initiatives such as the Lisbon agenda. This leaves individual member states to decide what, if any, priorities and resources they devote to community initiatives.

The changes in Article I-15, however, are substantial and profoundly important. We warned about these in our Blog at the time amendment were going through and, although the Article number has changed, the provisions remain. The text of the newly numbered Article reads as follows:

1. The Member States shall co-ordinate their economic policies within the Union. To this end, the Council of Ministers shall adopt measures, in particular broad guidelines for those policies.
What that does is move "co-ordination" from the intergovernmental European Council to the Council of Ministers, putting it firmly in the grip of a community institution, placing on it an obligation "to adopt measures", which will be proposed by the commission. This is so far from the FCO's "discuss" as to make their reply a travesty.

Then, crucially, by virtue of the simple reference to "Council of Ministers", without any reference to voting procedures, Article I-23 applies, which states that, "the Council shall act by qualified majority voting except where the Constitution provides otherwise".

Thus, entirely contrary to the implied assertion of the FCO that the EU will not control our economy (noting that, in its rebuttal, it does not actually claim that), the fact is that we have vested control to the Council of Ministers which, acting by qualified majority voting, can over-ride the British government.

As to the "broad guidelines", these are set out in Article I-3, which deals with the "Union's objectives". Article I-3 (3) states:

The Union shall work for the sustainable development of Europe based on balanced economic growth and price stability, a highly competitive social market economy, aiming at full employment and social progress…
I am not an economist but know enough of the jargon to appreciate that this locks us into a "social market economy", which is the antithesis of Anglo-Saxon "market economics". The Thatcher/Reaganite economic model is effectively prohibited by the constitution, and the Council of Ministers is given the power to enforce that prohibition.

The FCO, in its rebuttal, adds that "co-ordination" does not mean that the UK can be forced to join the euro, nor that we can be forced to change our tax, social security or interest rates. The issue of tax is contentious, not least though the legal adventurism of the ECJ, but the points made are not relevant to the main issue.

Through the constitution, we do give the EU control over our economy.

Indicator theory

One of the great weaknesses of the contemporary political system, many believe, is the emergence of a professional political class.

MPs and other representatives seem to be drawn from a diminishing gene pool, populated by apparatchiks who have spent their lives within the party political systems, have never held down real jobs and have no experience of life outside the "bubble".

Having come to political research from a technical background, wholly unrelated to politics, this Blogger has some sympathy with that view. It is certainly true that experience outside the "bubble" can give a much broader perspective on political issues.

It might still seem to some, however, that water sampling theory – which occupied an early part of my career – might have limited application to politics and political issues in general. But if you think that, you would be wholly wrong.

It was precisely this theory which came to mind yesterday as I was watching a BBC television news report on the forthcoming commemoration of the 60th anniversary of the 1945 Dresden bombing raid, noting that the BBC used some archive clips of World War II bombers to illustrate their report.

But, for a raid which was notoriously carried out by the RAF, in pursuance of the "area bombing" campaign, the BBC showed not once, but several times, pictures of USAAF B-17 Flying Fortress bomber formations.

So how does this relate to water sampling theory?

Well, in carrying our routine samples, one of our main concerns was to monitor the integrity of the public distribution system, which a special emphasis on typhoid, one of those killer water-borne diseases which had special historical resonance in the area I worked.

However, it was known that the odds of finding the typhoid bacilli in water, even during an outbreak, were close to nil, so we did not even look for it. Instead, we concentrated on a group of more common gut organisms which, if present in the water, could indicated contamination of the water supply. Harmless in their own right, these gave early warning of problems and were thus used as "indicator" organisms.

There is the relevance of the B-17s. In a clip which should have shown RAF Lancaster bombers, which were by 1945 the backbone of the RAF bomber force, the BBC programmers did not have to wit to realise that showing USAAF day bombers was entirely inappropriate. It was entirely unprofessional.

In other areas, that lack of professionalism is harder to detect, but here it was obvious. And if the BBC cannot get even something so obvious and simple right, what confidence can one have in the professionalism of an institution which covers so many more complex issues?

For me, therefore, those pictures were a good "indicator" that something is serious amiss with the BBC. My youth wasn't wasted after all.

How high?

The old jokes are always the best. This one is best framed in terms of the grizzled old sergeant addressing the raw recruit, informing him that, when he is told to jump, the only permitted response is: "how high?"

So it is now with the relationship between our government, the government of a formerly independent nation, and the EU commission.

Last Tuesday, we reported how the UK was running into trouble with the commission over the ongoing farce of the EU's emission trading scheme arising from a "row" between our government and the commission over the precise levels of carbon dioxide industry will be permitted to pump into the atmosphere before they attract massive fines or will have to buy "carbon credits".

The UK was looking to increase the permitted threshold levels, amounting to a three percent overall increase in CO2 emissions, and was arguing the toss with the commission. But the inverted commas around the "row" were quite deliberate. There was no row in the ordinary sense of the word, which might convey a dispute between equals.

This has been clearly illustrated by yesterday's developments when, in response to the UK government's pleadings, the real government – the EU commission – has simply written back to inform its subordinate that its plans are "unacceptable".

The UK's original plan had in fact been approved by the government – the EU commission, that is – but British companies had complained that it was too severe. Thus, in October, the UK changed the limits and then went cap-in-hand to Brussels to ask permission to do so – with the results we have recorded.

Now squeezed between the rock of its own industries' protests and the unyielding commission, the UK government is squawking about taking the commission to the ECJ.

Nevertheless, the new environmental commissioner, Stavros Dimas, has simply declared that: "Amendments such as an increase of the total allocation by 19.8 million tonnes… are not acceptable".

Clearly, the UK government hasn't fully grasped the nature of its relationship with its master. The correct response to Mr Stravros Dimas is: "how high?"

Friday, February 11, 2005

Myth Five: creating a European superstate

Here we go again, with the fifth myth from the FCO, up on the website since yesterday. This one is: "The constitution creates a European superstate".

As always, this is the "straw dog" technique at work. Many Eurosceptics argue that the end-point of the "project" is intended to be a superstate, but no one I know has ever expressed the view that the constitution actually achieves that objective. For those who see the end point in these terms, it is merely another step along the way, and not the last one by any means.

The closest we get to it recently is Michael Ancram, during the second reading debate of the European Union Bill, who argues, not without justice, that the constitution – via the Bill – "leads us through that gateway towards a country called Europe".

I would not argue that Ancram’s view is not reasonable. We have a political organisation that has its external border, its own government(s), a civil service, a parliament, a supreme court, its own policies, and many trappings of a country, including the flag, anthem and even passport.

However, many readers will recall the piece we posted by Mark Leonard, Centre for European Reform, with the passage from him that we quoted:

Europe's power is easy to miss. Like an 'invisible hand', it operates through the shell of traditional political structures. The British House of Commons, British law courts, and British civil servants are still here, but they have all become agents of the European Union implementing European law. This is no accident. By creating common standards that are implemented through national institutions, Europe can take over countries without necessarily becoming a target for hostility.
That passage becomes highly relevant here, for two reasons. Firstly, as Leonard points out, the EU "operates through the shell of traditional political structures" and, secondly, it can "take over countries".

There is another factor to consider - one with which most experts will agree - and that is simply that the EU, as an organisation, is unique. There is nothing else like it in the world, and there is nothing which even comes close to it.

Taking the Leonard thesis, with which we completely agree, there is a scenario which wholly transcends the "superstate" argument. Since the EU "operates through the shell of traditional political structures", we could accept that there is no intention that the EU should become a country or a state, much less a superstate.

Instead, it could be argued that it is interested in taking over the reins of power, dominating the governments of its member states but leaving the shells of their political strictures – and all the trappings of statehood – in place. In effect, its ambitions are to become a "super government", not a superstate.

"Brussels" becomes the central government, relegating the national governments to the equivalent status of the county council. You could say that the EU is taking the "r" out of "country".

However, the FCO does not even attempt to address these issues and, even in its own terms, makes a very poor fist of arguing its case.

It starts by declaring that, "the EU is an international organisation" - a self-evident and somewhat irrelevant fact - and then dives in by stating that:

The first article of the Treaty (Article I-1) defines the European Union "on which member states confer competences to attain objectives they have in common". The EU has no powers of its own, only those which the UK and the other members have agreed to share.
From there, it asserts:

The limits of EU authority are set out clearly for the first time. The Treaty sets out where the EU can act. Powers not conferred on the EU remain for the nations to exercise.
Now, in what is classic FCO "weasel-wordery", vocabulary is vitally important here. If we re-write the first part of the passage in parenthesis, using clearer words, we get: "...to which the member states give powers". The meaning is unchanged – all we have done is substitute direct synonyms to make it clearer.

Next, look at the first part of the following sentence: "The EU has no powers of its own…". Clearly, if the first assertion is true, that the member states give powers to the EU, that second part-sentence cannot be true.

Move forward now, to: "Powers not conferred on the EU remain for nations to exercise", and turn it round. It becomes: "Powers conferred on (i.e., given to) the EU, do not remain for the nation to exercise."

Putting all this together, the thrust of what the FCO is saying is: The EU has no powers until member states give them to it but, once they are given to the EU, the nations can no longer use them. This is, in effect, the thrust of Article I-12 (2):

When the constitution confers on (gives to) the Union a competence (power) in a specific area shared with the member states, the Union and member states may legislate and adopt legally binding acts in that area. The member states shall exercise their competence (power) to the extent that the Union has not yet exercised, or has decided to cease exercising, its competence (power).
Thus, the only case the FCO is making is that member states give the EU power and, when the EU uses them, they can no longer use them. It does not even begin to address its own "myth".

Having thus failed, the FCO moves on to claim that: "Nation states set the agenda". But that simply is not true. Within its areas of competence (power), as we know, the commission has sole right of proposal and, as we also know, at the beginning of its term, it sets its work programme. That is the agenda, and the nation states have no control over it.

All the FCO does, however, is state that the treaty:

...creates the new post of President of the European Council (the decision-making body of national Governments). The full-time President would replace the current rotating system of six-monthly Presidencies. This will make the council more coherent and more effective. Britain was a strong supporter of this idea. It will mean national governments working in the council will be better able to set Europe's long term agenda and ensure it is delivered.
Sorry – again this is simply not true. The European Council can set a political direction in areas outside the competence of the commission but in the areas of commission competence, it can only reacts to the commission. It cannot tell the commission what to do.

The FCO now lamely makes three points. Firstly, it claims that: "National Parliaments have a direct say for the first time":

The Treaty gives national parliaments new rights to scrutinise proposals for legislation, to ensure that the EU acts only where it will add value. If a third of national parliaments reject to a proposal, it is sent back to the European Commission for review.
David Heathcoat Amory answers that one rather effectively.

Its second point is: "The Queen will remain the Head of State", which is true - but so what? The EU operates through the shell of traditional political structures and the Queen could be – and is being – steadily robbed of powers. But even if her role ended up as purely ceremonial, she could still be nominally the head of state.

Finally, the FCO argues: "We keep national vetoes over key areas". These, it claims, are over the most important areas – tax, social security, foreign policy, defence and the UK's contribution to the EU budget. There, unanimous agreement is still required. Over asylum and immigration, it concludes, "we remain out, only exercising our right to opt-in when it is in Britain's interest."

The absolutes do not apply. In all those areas, the "competences" of the nation states are being eroded, and the vetoes, with each treaty, are gradually being whittled away. But even this point does not address the substantive issue – what is the end-point, the final destination of the project? On this, the FCO is silent.

The troublesome threesome

Well, two troublesome threesomes, really. On the one hand we have the United States, Iran and the European Union, with whom according to Secretary of State Rice, the US is now going to be best buddies except for intending to keep good bilateral relations with all the members as well.

On the other hand, there is the equally troublesome threesome of Britain, France and Germany, locked in an ever more hopeless pursuit of that elusive Holy Grail, objective guarantees that Iran will not acquire or construct a nuclear bomb.

In the wide-ranging press conference Secretary Rice gave in Luxembourg yesterday, where she shimmied skilfully round some difficult questions (even managing to catch out one hack, who seemed not to know the difference between Iraq and Iran), she was, naturally enough, asked about Iran.

The question was not a particularly difficult one, though it may have seemed that to the particular journo:

"Could I ask you about another topic on which there seems to be some difference,Madam Secretary? You have been asked at almost every stop of your trip about the nuclear issue and Iran. As far as I understood, you supported and support the initiative of the EU-3 and advised Iran to take the deal. My question is if there would be a deal between the Europeans and Iran, and there would be a strong guarantee that Iran cannot go the path to develop nuclear weapons, would the United States be prepared to support that deal? Would you be prepared to engage, as well, with Iran? Do you see the necessity to offer incentives, as well, as the Europeans are trying to do, because I think you have been a little bit unclear on that?"
Madam Secretary dealt with that one:
"Well, let’s do first things first: let’s get the Iranians to accept that they have an obligation to the international community not to develop nuclear weapons under cover of civilian nuclear power. The United States was the first state really to raise the alarm on this several years ago. And after some suspicious Iranian activities were uncovered, I think everybody began to realize that this actually was a very big problem.

The EU-3 are trying, in this way, to get the Iranians to live up to these obligations; as I said, the Iranians ought to do it. What we shouldn’t do is it allow the Iranians to start introducing new conditions, like what the United States might or might not do, in order to avoid the answer to the
question that is being asked of Iran, which is: are you prepared to live up to your international obligations? Let’s see if the Iranians can convince the international community that they are, in fact, able and willing to live up to their international obligations in a verifiable way.

The nuclear issue is urgent. It has to be seen in the context and Iran that is in other ways out of step with important trends in the Middle East - in terms of its support for terrorism, in terms of its treatment of its own people. When we’ve just talked about the need for reform in the Middle East, and we’ve just talked about the need for the Israelis and Palestinians to be able to move
forward and to resolve their conflict. The Iranians are on the wrong side of the divide on a number of issues."
And there we have the problem. Iran is most definitely on the wrong side of all human rights issues. Their support for the terrorist group Hizbollah has been well proven and, actually, is not denied by the Mullahs.

Iran is committed to the destruction of Israel, a democratic country and an ally of the West (though you would not believe it if you read some of the left-wing media in Europe).

Above all, Iran, though a signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty is refusing to give the required assurances. In fact, the much vaunted European policy of incentives through trade and investment, has achieved nothing as we have already pointed out.

Indeed, as Madam Secretary was speaking, top Iranian Mullah, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, was proclaiming that Iran has no intention of giving up its fuel cycle technology.

This is, of course, permitted under the Non-Proliferation Treaty but once a country possesses the ability to make fuel for nuclear power plants, it could also have the strategic option to enrich uranium to higher levels and, hey presto, create a weapon.

The Europeans, having failed to get all sorts of guarantees from Iran, have now decided that Iran must surrender the fuel cycle and have tried to negotiate to that end, clearly unsuccessfully.

To add insult to injury, Rafsanjani has explained during a sermon at Tehran University (odd ideas some of these people have of suitable topics for sermons) that the problem does not lie with Iran but with the other troublesome threesome, though he, too, seems to have problems with working out the difference between Europe, the EU and individual European states.
We will guard this technology. You will see in the future that Iran will have all the achievements of nuclear science at its disposal. Iran has not hesitated for a moment about its decisions to continue enrichment.
He then said that Iran’s aim was "confidence building" but it is not clear whose confidence was being built by whom, as he also added:
This confidence must be obtained within a few months. Two to three months have already passed. We have given an opportunity, we expect the Europeans to use this opportunity. After the time limit is over we will continue the nuclear technology work using all our power and riches.
Madam Secretary seems justified in her scepticism about Iran’s intentions. One wonders what the three negotiating European countries will do next.

A new right to be ignored

On the vexed issue of whether the EU constitution gives new powers to national parliaments, as asserted by the government, Mr. David Heathcoat-Amory, Conservative MP for Wells - and one of our two representatives on the EU’s constitutional convention – rather put the record straight when he spoke in the second reading debate of the European Union Bill, last Wednesday. "We heard again the tired argument about this new power for national Parliaments over subsidiarity", he said, adding:

That is not new; we can object already. It is certainly not a power, as we can object all we like, and the Commission can go on ignoring us. All that we get in this constitution is a new right to be ignored.
I like that – and as a sound-bite, it is hard to beat. One to treasure, methinks.

No "powerful backing" for European integration

There has been an element of fluttering in the Eurosceptic dovecotes this morning in response to an article in the Europhile Financial Times, claiming that the fair US secretary of state "backs European integration process".

This, we are told, occurred as Condoleezza Rice ended her tour of Europe and the Middle East yesterday when, according to the FT, she issued "a powerful statement" of US backing for European integration.

"In an effort to put to rest European fears over the US administration's previous division of 'old' and 'new' Europe," the FT has Ms Rice insisting there was no conflict between a strong Atlantic alliance and greater European unity.

Ms Rice, the FT says, "gave forthright backing to the efforts of European governments to forge a common foreign policy", saying a "unified" Europe was a "positive force". The paper continues:

Acknowledging the concerns of some in the administration that the European Union might develop as rival to Washington, she said her meetings with European leaders had reinforced her perception of a strong identity of interests. "The most powerful message I have heard here is that there is a strong desire to move forward on a common [transatlantic] agenda."

She indicated that Washington would not stand in the way of further integration. "As Europe unifies further and has a common foreign policy - I understand what is going to happen with the constitution and that there will be unification, in effect, under a foreign minister - I think that also will be a very good development," she said.

"We have to keep reminding everybody that there is not any conflict between a European identity and a transatlantic identity... but this is working." Anticipating George W. Bush's visit to Brussels later this month, Ms Rice added: "I very much want to call to everyone's attention that is why the president is coming to the European Union".
However, what we are getting from the FT – as you might expect, is a very partial, selective account. From the State Department website, which publishes the whole exchange, a very different picture emerges.

Condoleeza Rice is asked whether, if she had one person to call on the phone, who would that be? She replies:

If I had one person to call on the phone well, I never have to call just one person. We have learned to work in concert with a number of the parties in Europe. I do want to say that the European Union and its development in terms of the common foreign policy is a positive trend. A European Union that is open and that has an open architecture, if you will, that is not promoting fortress Europe - and I hear no one saying that – that unified Europe is going to be a positive force for us.
She then continues:

And so, I very much want to call to everybody's attention that, that is why the president is coming to the European Union, now with the Luxembourg presidency, because he wants to emphasize that we do have a partnership with the European Union, as well as we continue to have partnerships... have bilateral partnerships with individual members.

I have found that there is a strong commonality of values, obviously, but what I've found here this time is that there is also strong commonality of understanding about what the agenda is. And it hasn't mattered whether you are at the European Union, or the European Commission, with the British or the Germans or the French or the Poles or the Italians or any of the other places that I've been. It hasn't mattered where you were; that common agenda is understood. That means that we've got all kinds of relationships that we can mobilize and use and work with to pursue that common agenda. That is really in many ways to me the remarkable thing: my conversations have been really very much the same in all of those fora.
The questioner persists, however, asking: "Would you prefer to have one counterpart in Europe instead of running everywhere? Wouldn't it be easier to conduct foreign policy?" Rice replies as follows:

I actually don't mind it the way it is. And as Europe unifies further, I'm sure that… and has a common foreign policy, I understand what is going to happen with the constitution, and that there will be the unification under, in effect, a foreign minister. I think that will also be a very good development. But, of course we will continue to have bilateral relations, as well, and that also is a very, very good thing. There's nothing wrong with them being able to come from several different directions.
The key here is that she has no problems with the current arrangements. She is taking the neutral stance that, if further unification happens, as she says, "I think that will also be a very good development". And then the "killer": "...of course", she says, "we will continue to have bilateral relations, as well, and that also is a very, very good thing." Note, the use of the word "very" twice, as against once when she is talking about the CFP.

By any measure, US policy – as articulated by the new secretary of state – is to keep options open, not least by insisting on maintaining bilateral relationships. There is no ringing endorsement here for European integration, as the FT claims.

Spanish ayes

I suppose one benefit of the media obsession with the royal "soap opera" is that the wall-to-wall coverage of the Charles/Camilla wedding announcement has meant there was very little in the newspapers that we needed to read today.

It would be a pleasant – if unlikely – change if the phalanxes of gurus pronouncing on the constitutional implications of the marriage would spend a fraction of their valuable time evaluating the constitutional implications of the constitution – the EU constitution. That would never do, I suppose.

That apart, The Times, having completely ignored the British dimension of the EU referendum yesterday – having failed to report the second reading debate – did at least manage to tear itself away from the soap opera long enough to look at the Spanish situation, where its correspondent in Madrid, David Sharrock, reported under the headline: "The question where only a resounding 'Yes' is the right answer".

The result is a foregone conclusion, he writes, but the leaders of France and Germany will nonetheless fly to Barcelona today to try to ensure that Spain secures the biggest possible victory in next week’s referendum on the European constitution.

That, as we have observed previously on this Blog, is the real issue, as referendums in Spain suffer from notoriously low turnouts, and a low count in this referendum would not exactly convey unalloyed confidence in the project.

Chirac and Schröder, clearly aware of this, will be joining a rally with José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero in the hope that a resounding Sí in the first national referendum will set the tone for much trickier votes beyond the Pyrenees.

Berlusconi was also due to be present, but is down with flu but, had there been a foursome, we would have seen two left of centre and two right wing leaders, demonstrating how far love for the "project" has transcended traditional political divides.

This is also the case domestically, in Spain, where both the ruling Socialists and opposition People's Party support the constitution, also confirming the thesis that this is a projected beloved of the political classes, from whichever side of the political divide.

Nevertheless, Zapatero is leaving nothing to chance, flinging other peoples' money at the referendum with gay abandon, having spent about €7.5 million (£5.16 million) so far on a campaign entitled The First with Europe.

The latest polls show about 40 per cent of Spaniards intend to vote "yes" and 7 percent "no", with 38 percent yet to decide. But the latest poll also found that 90 per cent of Spaniards know nothing or very little about the constitution, despite the Government's month-long information campaign.

However, since 1986 Spain has received €86 billion (£59.24 billion) in EU aid, so it is not surprising that there is strong public sentiment in favour of the project. Whether that enthusiasm survives after the EU budget settlement has been agreed, when it is expected that funding to Spain will be slashed, remains to be seen. By then, of course, it will be too late. The Spanish will be in the bag.

Swan song or dead duck?

He must be quackers, but what do you expect of Denis MacShame who, hot foot from the Commons where he has been debating the European Union Bill, arrived in Swansea yesterday to unveil Britain's EU presidency logo.

And what is it to be? An animated flock of swans flying in a V-shape formation on an EU's blue background with the words "UK Presidency of the EU 2005" in yellow.

Costing £10,000 to design, by the summer it will adorn everything from stationery, paper weights, ties, cuff links and umbrellas and should become synonymous with the UK presidency.

Said the egregious MacShame, "The design concept is swans in flight. They fly in a beautiful V-formation but they always change their leader, and that is very like Europe," adding that the image of the swans, and the team work and leadership it represented, was a metaphor which set out the UK vision for Europe.

How prescient was Keats, observing how "oft have you seen a swan superbly frowning", and frowning they must be at their images to be used for such a tawdry purpose.

And while we're into metaphors, MacShame had better hope there is no wandering Parsifal abroad, "with bows and arrows fashioned with his own hands", to shoot at the flocks of birds. Otherwise, the logo will be a dead duck, symbolising the swan song of the project.

And is it relevant, we wonder, to recall that, in Wagner's opera, Parsifal was a German?

Thursday, February 10, 2005

Odd meetings

One can spend a good deal of time trying to work out exactly why Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice chose Paris for her first big speech and, parenthetically, what had passed between her and Blair and Straw.

Ought she to have given a bigger boost to the British and made her speech here? Is she perhaps already tired of Tony Blair’s self-righteousness and insistence that the Americans should show endless gratitude for his support?

On the other hand, perhaps she ought to have made the speech in one of the East European countries. We can but guess but the best guess is still our earlier one: that she can tell the folks back home that the American government through her and President Bush did all it could, even going to the heart of the enemy, Paris, to pronounce on the need to have warmer relations.

While we are on the subject of those warmer relations, are the Europeans and, specifically, the French not being a little ungrateful? What happened to the special relationship and understanding that they were supposed to have had with Rice’s predecessor, General Colin Powell? Has he been written out of history?

Rice’s choice of words was quite interesting. She called on Europe to work together with America to promote the ideals of liberty and democracy.

“America stands ready to work with Europe on our common agenda and Europe must stand ready to work with America.”
Not the European Union, as some people might have preferred, but Europe. This leaves a great deal of lee-way for future manoeuvring. Of course, Chirac would not have liked any references to the European Union either. He may represent France or he may represent Europe, as the mood takes him, but he does not represent the European Union.

Two things need to be noted. One is that the most hopeful development as far as the Middle East is concerned is the meeting between Ariel Sharon and Mahmoud Abbas, sponsored, so to speak by the President of Egypt and the King of Jordan.

The other one is slightly odder. According to an article in the New York Times, reprinted in Wednesday's International Herald Tribune, President Chirac had a meeting with five senators at the Elysée Palace a week ago and seems to have confused them all.

Chirac insisted on his vision of a multipolar world but, it seems, did not quite make it clear what the other poles were going to be. Perhaps Europe, perhaps France.

It seems that President Chirac and former Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin, for some reason present at the meeting, though he is now Minister of Interior, showed themselves to be uncertain what to say about Iraq.

On the one hand they were taken aback at the high turn out at the election, on the other hand they continued to maintain that it was all a complete disaster.

On the one hand they were supportive of the plan to train Iraqi police officers, on the other hand, no French soldier was to set foot on Iraqi soil. And, anyway, the Americans got it all wrong. (Not like the French in their various colonial and semi-colonial adventures.)

The senators were particularly confused by what Chirac had to say about Iran. Since then Ms Rice has insisted that Iran comply with the various conditions laid down by Germany, France and Britain or face the United Nations Security Council.

For some reason, it has been assumed that when America says that Iran’s case must go to the Security Council, it is actually discarding the possibility of diplomatic negotiations.

It seems (one does keep saying that but the story is rather confused) that President Chirac told the senators that he would support taking the case to the Security Council if Iran did not comply with the demands made by the International Atomic Authority, adding that he did not trust the Iranian government. He explained that, in his opinion, you could negotiate with the Sunnis but not the Shiites, an odd point of view, but, perhaps, coloured by his own and other French politicians’s past dealings with Saddam Hussein.

All in all, it is President Chirac’s view that President Bush should take political lessons from him and remember France’s great knowledge of and experience in the Middle East. Does he mean all those dealings with Saddam and the catastrophic support for Chairman Arafat, whose death has finally made some progress in the Palestine possible? Perhaps not.

Was the French Foreign Minister one of those who agreed over what must have been an unusually friendly and pleasant lunch in Brussels, that NATO will provide more support for the officer-training mission in Iraq?

We do not know. In fact, details of the agreement are frustratingly few. We do not know which countries were involved (by NATO one increasingly means the European allies, who have not exactly been pulling their weight recently).

Officials say they hope to triple the size of the NATO training contingent by this summer to about 300 and to train 1,000 new Iraqi Army officers a year. In other words, there have been no definite commitments. Will this include the German contingent, who will train Iraqi forces but not in Iraq? We do not know. What will the French do? Cheer from the sidelines? Again, we do not know.

At the moment, everybody is relieved at the friendly atmosphere of Rice’s visit and her own elegant self seems to have vowed the Continental media.

Such rather awkward matters as the genuniness of some of the Europeans’ contribution to the Western alliance, the developments in Iran and the rather confused but determined intent by the EU to lift the arms embargo on China, are being swept under the carpet until the next big spring cleaning.

Myth four - the Charter of Fundamental Rights

Yesterday’s FCO "myth", the fourth in the serties and again posted on its website, deals with the favourite claim of Neil O'Brien, campaign director of the "Vote No" campaign: "The Charter of Fundamental Rights will be used to change Britain's labour laws".

The "facts", says the FCO, are that the Charter makes clear that EU institutions must respect people's rights. Until now, it claims, EU institutions like the EU commission have not had clear rules ensuring they respect people's fundamental rights. Treaties like the European Convention on Human Rights have applied directly only to member states.

Now, we are told, the constitutional treaty contains a charter of fundamental rights which, for the first time, sets out exactly what rights, freedoms and principles apply at EU level.

The essential element, though, is that the charter will only apply only EU law is being implemented. "It cannot," or so it is claimed, "extend EU powers. The Charter makes it clear that it does not affect the UK when it is not implementing EU law, and also that it cannot extend EU powers or competences."

Furthermore, the FCO is adamant that the Charter creates no new rights and each (existing) right in the Charter has a corresponding explanation which pins down the origin of that right, its meaning and how it should be understood. The constitutional treaty then instructs the ECJ to interpret the Charter through those explanations.

This is Neil O'Brien on 28 January, talking to Jon Humphrys on the Today programme:

It'll mean that European judges will be able to impose new regulations on our businesses… if you look at what European judges are saying, and the European judges are the ones who are going to have to interpret the treaty, they’re saying that it's quotes "nonsense" that it doesn't increase their powers.. The president of the court of justice has said that it will give him huge new powers in new areas..
Then again, on 9 February, O'Brien returns to the subject, stating:

…the constitution would give the European court power to make a lot more rulings over our economy and the way our business is run. Because of the charter of fundamental rights, European judges would be able to decide on things like our labour law and so on.
So who is right?

Well, "Vote-No" offers on its website a "research briefing" citing Vassilios Skouris, president of the ECJ, recently stated that the Constitution "will bring new areas and new subjects under the Court's jurisdiction", and has refused to confirm that the Charter would not change national laws.

In an interview with the FT (18 June 2004) Skouris was asked, "Is the 'horizontality' of the Charter stable? The idea that the Charter would affect only EU institutions, not national jurisdictions?" Skouris replied: "It's difficult to say what is going to happen," adding that the EU court system:

...distinguishes the EU from all other international organisations... In a system where the rule of law prevails, politics is subject to law. Political authorities are not completely free to act as they please.
That, in itself, is a pretty frank admission.

Then, "Vote No" goes on to state that, Fidelma Macken, another ECJ judge, has said that it is "foolish" to argue that the Charter will not affect national laws and the Government’s own legal advisor, Professor Alan Dashwood, has admitted that "you don't know what will happen". There is "no hard and fast answer" to whether the Charter will affect national laws.

The Skouris comment is repeated in a briefing by one of the UK's largest union, the GMB, which notes that "the differing opinions on the legal impact of the Charter will be tested in court if the Constitution is ratified," adding that the GMB will be encouraging a broad interpretation of the Charter of Fundamental Rights and other elements of the EU Constitution helpful to trade unions, to improve the quality of work and family life for our members."

On this basis, O'Brien is somewhat foolhardy is saying with such conviction that the Charter will affect national laws, but equally, the government has no substance for its certainty in declaring that the Charter will not affect national laws. From the evidence adduced so far, we simply do not know and, as the GMB implies, we will not know until this has been tested in the courts.

The crux of the matter though, according to the government, are the "explanations" appended to the Charter, prepared under the authority of the praesidium of the convention which drafted the document.

These are attached as a "declaration" to the constitution but, as the British Management Data Foundation helpfully points out in its notes on the constitution, that self-same declaration states:

Although they do not as such have the status of law, they are a valuable tool of interpretation intended to clarify the provisions of the Charter.
This puts the government's claim that the "Charter makes it clear that it does not affect the UK when it is not implementing EU law…" into perspective. The government is being less than honest in failing to state that the clarification on which it relies does not have legal force. If so minded, the ECJ can ignore them.

However, that is the government’s case, which it then elaborates on the FCO "factsheet", stating unequivocally, that the Charter "will not create a right to strike in the UK." Expanding on this, the "factsheet" adds:

The Treaty is clear: a right to strike only exists "in accordance with national laws and practices" (Article II-88).
The Treaty is indeed clear. Taking the official version of the FCO website, the relevant part of Article II-88 actually states:

…in accordance with Union law and national laws and practices
The omission of the word "Union law and" cannot be an accident. Therefore, it has to be a deliberate attempt to deceive. Clearly, the FCO is up to no good – now there's a surprise.

But the "killer point" is the foreign secretary's claim that "the new treaty sets limits on the European Union's powers and, for the first time, they are listed clearly", stated yesterday in the second reading debate. Given the ambiguity of the status of the Charter, it is very clear that the limits of the EU's powers are not clear.

In attempting to resolve one supposed myth, it seems the FCO has created another.

"Czech this out"

The Wall Street Journal Europe cannot resist puns on that nation’s moniker either. However, the editorial that is headed that way makes an important point, one that we have already highlighted on this blog.

With the accession of the post-Communist East European states, the EU’s rather cosy and friendly attitude towards left-wing dictatorships is receiving a knocking.

The most recent development in the highly ethical common foreign policy is the suspension of diplomatic sanctions against Cuba. This move came about as a result of a proposal by the Spanish government.

It is not quite clear whether the removal of diplomatic sanctions was to reward Castro for his "moves towards liberalization" or to encourage those moves. If the first, then there is no evidence for it.

The sanctions were imposed in protest against his arrest of 75 dissidents two years ago. Most of them are still in prison. Nor is there the slightest sign of any change in the 45 year old totalitarian system, even if naïve or silly westerners droolingly go on cheap holidays there.

Opposition to this move came from the new members, whose politicians, no doubt grew up with endless propaganda about the glorious Cuban revolution and its leader, Fidel Castro. (Pity about the other leaders, all of whom have disappeared.)

Czech Foreign Minister Cyril Svoboda said this in an interview to the newspaper Mlada Fronta Dnes:

In my view no changes have been taking place in Cuba – or as far as they have been taking place, it is for the worse. However, some politicians in Europe are convinced that this is a chance for the atmosphere in Cuba to change. And … I am sceptical about that.
His views were echoed by his Polish counterpart.

Just as the Wall Street Journal Europe, we are delighted with this injection of sound common sense into political dealings with other countries. But unlike that estimable newspaper, we wish to sound a word of caution.

The East Europeans may be hard-headed and sensible about totalitarianism of all description but their influence is not of the greatest. All they have managed to do is to turn a complete lifting of sanctions into an indefinite suspension. And the EU's "sense of moral direction in dealing with the world’s dictators" remains atrophied.

Are they listening to themselves?

It is a long time since we ran that series but one quotation from the BBC programme that featured Sir Stephen Wall, Europhile extraordinaire and Neil O’Brien of the No campaign, meticulously transcribed by my colleague, caught my attention.

As our readers will recall, one of Sir Stephen’s arguments in favour of the Constitution ran as follows:

“We’re going to have to develop a relationship with China, which will be the big emerging superpower of this century. We have to manage the issue of climate change. We’re seeing in Sudan the first war of climate change over access to resources. We have to deal with Iran, which is developing nuclear weapons. You can’t deal with these issues through force, you have to deal with them by influence and the European Union through its aid and trade relationships is a huge democratic force for beneficial change in the world.”
My goodness, is this what they teach them in elite diplomatic establishments? In my days as a tutor at a less than elite establishment I would have given B- for that piece of reasoning.

So we are going to have to develop a relationship with China, eh? Presumably, we do not have one at the moment and cannot possibly develop one without the blessed EU.

After all, the EU’s idea of a relationship with China seems to be lifting the arms embargo. Incidentally, when Secretary of State Rice remonstrated with European leaders yesterday, she was told by Commission President Barroso that the proposed lifting of the embargo
“… would not increase the quantity or quality of arms going to China.”
Excuse me? Is Commission President Barroso listening to himself? Did we have an embargo or not? If not, then what was all the fuss about after Tienanmen Square? If yes, but we were still selling arms, then how do politicians justify their supreme hypocrisy? (OK, I didn’t really ask that. Am I listening to myself?)

If nothing will change then why bother to lift the embargo, sending the wrong message to everyone: Americans, Chinese, Taiwanese, Japanese?

Unsurprisingly one of Rice’s officials muttered that Barroso’s assurances “strained credibility”.

Iran, of course, is a very fine example of European achievement. So far, nothing has been achieved through all those carrots and sticks. The mullahs swallow every concession and decide that actually, like Richard III, they are not in the giving mood.

Even President Chirac has apparently told some American senators that he did not trust the government of Iran, it not being possible to negotiate with Shias, according to him, only with Sunnis. L’Empereur Jacques seems to look at these matters from point of view that is different from everybody else’s.

But the most interesting comment was the one about Sudan. We have already written about the lack of evidence that climatic conditions cause wars. They might cause low-level temporary hostility but just as likely to cause agreements.

The idea that the war in Sudan (which war, incidentally, the one in the south or the one in Darfur, or does Sir Stephen not know the difference) is somehow now caused by climate change, having raged quite spectacularly for some years because of other reasons defies logical thinking.

What is Sir Stephen’s evidence? Why should climate change encourage people to murder, rape, pillage and enslave other people with quite so much abandon?

What of the other wars? Is there no climate change in Eritrea, DR Congo, Rwanda or Uganda? Are there no wars there? What are they caused by?

Are we to understand from this that signing up to Kyoto and stifling our own economic development will somehow miraculously bring the Sudan conflicts to an end? Or, maybe, just one of them, the one that is caused by climate change?

No doubt, this could be used as an argument to force the US to sign up, but what of China, India and Brazil? Big polluters all and non-signatories to that wretched protocol. Should they not sign up to create peace in Sudan?

Apart from that, what has the EU done to help solve the situation? Well, it has sent several high-level and, no doubt, expensive commissions of enquiry and it has pumped money at a great rate. Not a penny of that has been accounted for and we have no idea how much has reached the people of Darfur or southern Sudan, how much was appropriated by the Sudanese government and how much went on arming the militias.

What shocks me more than anything that Sir Stephen Wall was allowed to get away with this tripe both by his opponent, Neil O’Brien and by the interviewer, James Naughtie. But then again, what can one expect?

The debate in the media

With the European Union Bill second reading debate transcript running to over a hundred pages of A4 and more than 47,000 words - the length of a short novel - the problem of delivering a coherent report of the proceedings is self-evident, especially in the frenetic time-scale to which the media have to work.

Not that The Times even bothered. Once known as the "paper of record", the print copy did not even refer to the debate. Future historians will have to look elsewhere for their information.

Inevitably – how could it be otherwise? – of the newspapers which did bother to report the event, albeit overshadowed by other events of more immediate journalistic interest, the different sympathies and political slants were very much to the fore.

The Guardian for instance, chooses: "Assurance by Straw on EU constitution", its strap reading: "Treaty will mean no further integration for decades, MPs told".

According to Patrick Wintour, the chief political correspondent, "Straw hardened his assurance that no further EU integration would be contemplated for decades if the British people backed the proposed new EU constitution", the egregious hack stating that Straw had told the Commons the constitution signalled "thus far and no further" by clearly setting out the limits of EU powers.

However, although Wintour puts the "thus far…" in parenthesis, suggesting a direct quote from Straw to the House, the quote actually came from Graham Brady, Tory shadow Europe minister, who was in turn quoting from Straw's interview on the Today programme .

Brady cited Straw who, on the programme, claimed that the constitution "literally limits the powers of the European Union", adding: "What this does is say 'this far and no further'".

Said Brady to the House, "That directly contradicts the Prime Minister, who claimed in Cardiff on 28 November 2002 that: we must end the nonsense of 'this far and no further'." Brady added: "It also contradicts the Minister for Europe, who said at Durham university in November that 'this treaty won't be the last word'."

Selective reporting on the part of the Guardian, but what do you expect?

Only secondarily does the paper then take the theme offered by Straw that if Britain rejected the treaty "we are in unknown territory, weak and isolated in Europe." It cites Straw saying: "We would have to go cap in hand to Brussels to ask our partners to start all over again - reopening negotiations in which we had secured such a good result. If we got any deal at all, it would be a worse not a better one, negotiated from a position of weakness, not of strength".

Since Britain would be in a position of strength, effectively being able to hold the "colleagues" to ransom, one can actually imagine the other EU leaders beating a path to Downing Street in order to rescue their project, so Straw's imagery must be taken with a pinch of salt.

Anyway, this was very much the line taken by The Independent, which chose "Crisis for Britain if it votes against the EU constitution", as its headline. The paper's political editor cites Straw declaring that Britain would be plunged into a "crisis" and become a semi-detached member of the European Union if it rejected the EU constitution.

Straw had "made [it] clear" that the government would try to persuade a sceptical public to endorse the treaty by warning them of the severe consequences of a "no" vote. He said rejecting the treaty would be a "risk" and leave the country in "unknown territory".

This identifies one of the strategies being adopted by Straw, who is fighting the "status quo" effect, which tends to dominate referendums, whereby people prefer to vote conservatively, rejecting anything new. Straw is trying to position the "yes" decision as the safe option.

The Independent also retails Straw’s claim that Tory opposition is using the referendum as a "Trojan horse" to renegotiate existing EU treaties as well as the new one implementing the constitution. He is cited as saying that said their goal was "pure fantasy" and "literally undeliverable" as it would require the agreement of all 24 other member states.

"I am confident this patriotic case and patriotic argument for Britain in Europe will win against the narrow pessimistic isolationism of the anti-Europeans," he says.

Ancram gets the statutory rejoinder, reported as saying that the Tories would oppose the Bill because they believed the treaty and the constitution were separate issues that should be dealt with by separate legislation. He is right, not least because of the issues raised by my colleague, which have such profound significance that they should be explored fully by MPs.

The Independent also gives pride of place to Kenneth Clarke and his complaints about the referendum (which we will review separately) and then gives voice to the token Labour Eurosceptic, Ian Davidson, MP for Glasgow Pollok, saying:

Signing up to this constitution means handing 63 new powers to the EU and Labour voters should say "no". The constitution would mean Thatcherite economics, a militarised EU and the centralisation of power. There should be no new powers to Brussels until the EU is reformed.
The Sun picks up on the Brady line (without identifying the author) using it to back a headline: "Straw v Blair in EU clash".

The result, according to The Sun, is that "Blair's EU Constitution dream was in chaos last night after he was flatly contradicted by his Foreign Secretary". This is something of an exaggeration, but good theatre. However, it gives the paper a leader, allowing it to call the government a "Push-Me-Pull-You" after the fictional animal in Dr Dolittle, which faced both ways at once.

Returning to the more serious media, The Telegraph offers a brief news piece, which does not seem to appear on the website, followed by a leader which takes on "Scaremongering Straw". It suggests that listeners to yesterday morning's Today programme may be forgiven for coming to the conclusion that the Foreign Secretary has not actually read the 448 articles of the proposed European Constitution.

While Straw argues that the document represents a triumph for Britain's national interests, The Telegraph goes into detail on the constitution, pointing out that little details like Article 1 (6), which states that "This constitution shall have primacy over the laws of the member states"

With this and other examples, it asks: "Does he think that these words are simply meaningless - a random collection of hieroglyphs, assembled in no particular order, signifying nothing? Isn't it far more likely that they mean exactly what they say: that the constitution will allow the eurocracy in Brussels to overrule the wishes of the people of Britain whenever it chooses?"

The Scottish press makes an interesting contrast as well, with the Scotsman choosing: "EU referendum defeat 'staring Labour in the face'", stating that the government is facing a potentially ruinous defeat in the European Constitution referendum. This is a warning by MPs, who have "shrugged off" threats that rejecting the treaty would leave Britain "weak and isolated".

The Europhile Herald, on the other hand, has it that: "Straw launches offensive on EU constitution", firing the first salvo in the forthcoming battle with a scathing attack on the Tories' "pessimistic isolationism".

It had "parliamentary heavyweights" like Kenneth Clarke, William Hague and Robin Cook, signalling the intensity of the forthcoming campaign, with barnstorming speeches defending their entrenched positions.

It concludes it piece with a quote from Kenneth Clarke, lambasting the government for giving in to calls for a referendum. Predicting that any campaign would be unsatisfactory, he said: "I think we will all infuriate the public as we debate this in ever more strident terms, because as is clear from this debate, there isn't even going to be agreement between the two sides of the argument about what the treaty actually does."

Dislike and disagree with Clark on virtually everything, as we do on this Blog, he may well have a point here.

A conspiracy of silence?

No one sensible would disagree with Quentin Peel, the Financial Time’s columnist, that "the starter's gun has fired and the great European referendum marathon has begun."

Certainly, from this Blog's perspective, we have been able to cover only a fraction of the material produced today, and we have some catching-up to do. We are also aware, incidentally, that the volume of material on the Blog is getting difficult to manage and we are actively working on a web-site format which will make the information more accessible.

Returning to the substantive point, Peel actually starts his piece – actually in yesterday's FT – with the plea to "end conspiracy of silence over Europe". His call strikes a cord. Am I the only one who suspects the government hand in news management over yesterday’s second reading of the European Union Bill?

It was never going to be the case that the debate was going to make headline news but I know from direct experience that coverage was curtailed after two events: Blair's apology and declaration that those jailed for the 1974 Guildford and Woolwich bombings; and the release of the ERM papers by the treasury. Both were certain to capture strong media attention; neither was tied to today; and both events were under the control of the government.

Certainly, if the government wanted to minimise coverage of the debate, that is the way it would be expected to have worked, so it was rather convenient that these two stories emerged, right on cue – or am I being too cynical?

Anyhow, back to Peel – he looks at the Spanish referendum, due in ten days time and finds that, even though there is not much doubt about the outcome, the country has still been plastered with posters urging voters to turn out.

Anyone who cared to buy a Sunday newspaper last weekend, he writes, also got a free copy of the constitution. You can scarcely avoid the subject: it has been promoted by pop stars, distributed at football matches and debated by the participants in the Spanish television version of Big Brother.

But, notes Peel, contrast to Britain could hardly be greater. Although British voters are consistently revealed to be among the most ignorant in Europe about all matters to do with the EU, including the constitutional treaty, attempts to provide them with better information have been almost non-existent.

Peel thinks that there is a real possibility that the British will vote against the EU constitution, as much out of ignorance as hostility but, despite that, there is a conspiracy of silence between those backing the treaty and those against it.

His answer is to take a lesson from Ireland: to establish a national forum in which all the pros and cons of the EU constitution can be rationally and publicly debated by all sides. It should travel the country as a public forum, televised and broadcast on radio, reported by the press, bringing in not only advocates and opponents of the constitution but more measured expert witnesses as well.

It is a nice idea, as such, but it is very hard to think how truly impartial – or even sufficiently knowledgeable - experts would be found, and either side would be quick to accuse if bias was suspected.

Either way, says Peel, the challenge is to crack the conspiracy of silence. We cannot totally disagree with him there. But, if anyone is trying to keep it off the agenda, it is the government.

At the end of a long history of evading EU issues, it showed its mettle again yesterday, when it could have made a big issue of today's debate, and kept other business out of the media to give it a fairer chance of coverage. Either by accident or design, it did not, losing an opportunity to bring the debate to a wider audience.

If it's a conspiracy of silence you want, therefore, forget the "no" side. It is only too keen to get stuck in. And forget any ideas of a national forum, Mr Peel. Have a word with your chums in government.

Wednesday, February 09, 2005

Neil O’Brien versus Sir Stephen Wall

We cannot complain about the scale of coverage on the EU constitution from the Today programme – even if there are questions about the balance.

Not only was Ancram given a slot, with myself and Robert Cooper later on, followed by Jack Straw, the programme also had Jim Naughtie interview Neil O’Brien of the "vote no" campaign and Sir Stephen Wall. We have produced this transcript:

JN: We know that MPs are discussing today preparations for the European referendum which may not be far way. We had the foreign secretary talking about it earlier, saying that the government’s campaign is capable of swinging opinion which, at the moment, is ranged pretty firmly against that European constitution.

We’re joined by Neil O’Brien, who’s campaign director for the "no" campaign and also by Sir Stephen Wall who was until relatively recently foreign affairs advisor in Downing Street at the prime minister’s side and also a former British ambassador on the continent and elsewhere.

JN: Neil O’Brien, is the government capable of reversing this lead that you have?

NO: Well I think it is possible, but there’s obviously no room for complacency. But at the moment, the public and voters are very strongly against the constitution and, as you’ve seen from the papers today, business is also very strongly against the constitution

JN: Are they going to continue to be against the constitution when the argument is out there against them in detail, in a way that it hasn’t been. Now I know you’ve put out endless leaflets and you’ve run a very efficient campaign but the broad mass of the public, people aren’t up with the arguments. And why should they be. They don’t have to vote.

NO: Well, I think when people are exposed to the arguments, they’ll tend to become more hostile when they find out more about what is going on. However, I would say that there is one danger. At the moment we’re campaigning to try to get a fair referendum but at the moment the government is determined to spent a lot of taxpayers’ money trying to promote the constitution. We think that is unfair because the government are effectively taking public funds and using it to sell something that they just don’t want

JM: Well, you can’t complain about the foreign secretary making a speech in support of British foreign policy. That tends to happen in every government.

NO: No, that’s not what I am complaining about. What I am complaining about is that they’re using taxpayers’ money to fund propaganda, I mean they’ve just hired a PR agency to go around explaining why the constitution is a success for Britain. I mean, that’s not information. That’s using government money to push government spin

JN: Sir Stephen Wall. What about the argument itself. Do you accept that, as someone who is in favour of the constitution that it’s going to be a very difficult argument for the government to win?

SW: Well, I think this is a determining moment for us, for Britain and the British people do have a chance to take a decision which obviously will be about the constitutional treaty, but on the back of that, about how they see our place in Europe.

And I actually think that what the constitutional treaty has done is valuable to us because we are living at a time where not only economically do we need the co-operation we have with our partners the European Union through the rules that the European Union has, but we live in a pretty dangerous world where the so-called "soft power" of the European Union is extraordinarily important

We’re going to have to develop a relationship with China which will be the big emerging superpower of this century. We have to manage the issue of climate change. We’re seeing in Sudan the first war of climate change over access to resources. We have to deal with Iran which is developing nuclear weapons. You can’t deal with these issues through force, you have to deal with them by influence and the European Union through its aid and trade relationships is a huge democratic force for beneficial change in the world.

JN: Well it was interesting to hear your former colleague in Downing Street, Robert Cooper, who now works in Brussels, putting the case for – and we also had someone putting the case against, just after eight o’clock – and arguing that the way to look at it was to look at Europe as an institution which had brought peace and stability and prosperity to Europe. You’re making a similar case in arguing the global point about the importance of European Union. Don’t you think people are more likely to vote, though, on what they see, rightly or wrongly as bread and butter issues, and whether laws are decided upon in our own parliament here or in Brussels?

SW: Well, I am not sure that’s altogether true because opinion polls when people are asked what most concerns you, now at the top of the list people say defence and foreign policy issues because I think people are rightly worried about what kind of world we live in.

But even on the bread and butter issues, I would argue, for example, as we come to tackle the whole issue of international crime, terrorism etc, I believe that what the constitutional treaty does, by allowing for more majority voting – Britain doesn’t have to take part if it doesn’t want to – that that is actually beneficial. In the days when we were trying to settle things by intergovernmental agreement, we were incapable of reaching decisions.

JN: Neil O’Brien?

NO: Well I think all this stuff about intergovernmentalism is all very interesting but the bottom line about the constitutional referendum is do we want to give up more power and control to the European Union. I think we shouldn’t because I think that would be bad for our economy

JN: Well, why is it giving up power when power can only be exercise by groups in which we have a voice?

NO: For example the constitution would give the European court power to make a lot more rulings over our economy and the way our business is run. Because of the charter of fundamental rights, European judges would be able to decide on things like our labour law and so on. And I think that would mean a higher level of regulation, more red tape…

JN: But operating under a charter of which we are signatories.

NO: Yea, yea… I mean…

JN: I take it you wouldn’t want us to renege on that signature, leaving aside the question of the constitution, would you?

NO: I am not quite sure what you are driving at. I mean the government wants to sign his constitution, which is a constitution which transfers more power to Brussels.

JN: Sir Stephen?

SW: Well, just taking the charter of fundamental rights, there are safeguards in there which on the face of the document that this cannot replace national laws and rules so there is no question of the charter of fundamental rights replacing our national labour laws. All you have to do is read the document. It’s there.

NO: European judges are already saying it’s going to change our labour laws. One of them has already said it’s nonsense to think it won’t change our labour laws. And they’re the people who are going to make the decision

SW: Well the judges are going to have make the decision based on what on the face of the document and there’s a triple lock on anybody’s ability to change our own national labour laws.

NO: Well their reading of the document is clearly that it will change our national labour laws.

JN: Let me just ask… Why do you think it is wrong, Sir Stephen… to argue, as Neil O’Brien does about powers either going to Brussels or coming away from Brussels?

SW: We have to decide in the case of each piece of legislation whether we vote for it or against it. Overall, what the constitution does is insert a role for national parliaments in that process which hasn’t existed before, and if you look at what has happened over the years, we’re not in a situation where there’s going to be a single country called Europe. We got 25 individual nation states and collectively in terms of our economic interest, fighting terrorism, dealing with a dangerous world, it is better to be working with 24 other democracies than being out on a limb on our own.

JN: We’ll, we three will meet again, quite often I think. Sir Stephen Wall, Neil O’Brien, thank you both.

I am open to persuasion on this, but my view of the exchange is that Stephen Wall had it. Some of thin only comes over in the tone, which obviously does not come over in the transcript, but the impression is of a "grown-up" discussion between Naughtie and Wall, with this querulous little boy chipping in with low grade points which lowered the tone of the discussion.

I am sorry that O’Brien seems obsessed with the minutia of the campaign, which is of relatively little importance – was the government ever going to play fair? – and missed the chance on fighting for the "high ground" that Wall occupies so effectively.

Agreed, we have got to go for our points, but there were so many contentious and untrue statements – Sudan, the first war of climate change? For heaven’s sake! – that he could have taken Wall apart.


For sure, it is always easy to second-guess someone else’s performance in a live radio broadcast, but this is the second time that O’Brien has brought up the charter of fundamental rights on the Today programme (see here) and he should have learnt from experience that it is far too complex and difficult a point to argue convincingly in the context of a short interview.

Altogether, O’Brien seemed out of his depth, with Wall in a different league. The "no" campaign is going to have to raise its game.

Neither common nor a policy

There are aspects to the European Union Bill, now before the House of Commons, that have received less attention than is desirable. For instance, there has been very little discussion of the fact that Part 2 deals with the Common Foreign and Security Policy.

Foreign Secretary Jack Straw has explained correctly that the common foreign and security policy is not something that was invented for the purposes of the Constitution. It was there at the beginning of the project in the fifties but was abandoned, as it was highly unpopular.

The process of formulating a common foreign and security policy or, at least, the structures of it, as the content still eludes our great statesmen, began with the Treaty of Maastricht and proceeded with every subsequent one.

To a great extent the concept will be finalized in the Constitution but, clearly, it was felt necessary to introduce extra legislation to deal with the subject.

Section 5 is entitled Implementation of common foreign and security policy and tells us that

"(1) The Secretary of State may by regulations make provision for one or more of the following purposes –

a) Implementing an obligation of the United Kingdom created and arising by or under the common foreign policy provisions or a related agreement, or enabling such an obligation to be implemented;
b) Enabling the exercise of rights enjoyed or to be enjoyed by the United Kingdom under or by virtue of those provisions or such an agreement;
c) Dealing with matters arising out of, or related to, such an obligation or such rights.

(2) The powers conferred by this section include power to amend enactments or subordinate legislation."
The section goes on to deal with the creation of summary new offences and the methods whereby the Secretary of State may make regulations. These are our old friends the Orders in Councils, otherwise known as Negative Statutory Instruments.

Negative SIs are published by order of the relevant Secretary of State and placed before each House, where they lie for 40 days unless somebody manages to initiate a debate and win it to reverse the Order.

This process is virtually impossible in the House of Commons, where even if such a motion is passed the Instrument goes to the relevant Standing Committee, where it is dealt summarily, committees being filled in proportion to the number of MPs each party has in the House.

In the Lords there is a possibility of praying against and Order and debates do happen. They rarely lead to anything. There have even been occasions when the government lied quite blatantly, saying that one House annulling an Order was inadequate and, therefore, the vote was ignored.

In certain cases, as the relevant section of the European Union Bill, the Secretary of State can avoid the distinctly non-onerous procedure altogether, if he can insert a
“declaration … that the urgency of the matter makes it necessary for the regulation to be made without [Parliamentary] approval”.
The argument here would be that there are certain occasions, for example, an attack on the country when the government has to act fast and cannot wait for 40 days. In fact, this is a little disingenuous. There is nothing in the rules that prevents the government to implement the Order in Council, while it is still before the two Houses. It’s just that someone might try to annul it.

But the more important point is that this extraordinary structure is being put into place in order to implement obligations arising out of the common foreign policy or related agreements. In other words, the Secretary of State is acquiring powers to override Parliament completely for the sake of the EU’s foreign policy. One wonders whether the United States Congress would ever pass a law like that.

When one turns to the explanatory notes to the Bill, one finds that related agreements may well refer to
“… treaties entered into by the UK or the EU on the basis of the CFSP provisions of the Constitutional Treaty.”
It is also worth remembering that Article I-41 of the Constitution for Europe, which deals with specific provisions relating to the common security and defence policy starts with the following sub-section:
“The common security and defence policy shall be an integral part of the common foreign and security policy. It shall provide the Union with an operational capacity drawing on civil and military assets. The Union may use them on missions outside the Union for peace-keeping, conflict prevention and strengthening international security in accordance with the principles of the United Nations Charter. The performance of these tasks shall be undertaken using capabilities provided by the Member States.”
There is plenty more in the Article about the various obligations, none of which will have to be debated in Parliament if the European Union Bill becomes law.

Nor is it quite clear whether anything will be different if the referendum votes the Constitution out, as a great many of the provisions of the common foreign and security policy have been agreed on outside its framework. More can be agreed on during jolly ministerial meetings, if necessary.

Curiously, the government itself seems unable to understand the implications. Another Bill that is making its way through the Commons is the Armed Forces (Parliamentary Approval for Participation in Armed Conflict) Bill, which has had its First Reading.

One wonders what the purpose of that Bill is. Even if it becomes Act, it will not apply to anything that comes under the European Union’s common foreign and security policy.

The second reading

Updated

Listening to the debate in the Commons this afternoon, the most remarkable thing about it so far was the brevity of the Jack Straw’s contribution in opening the debate.

His crucial argument was that Britain is stronger in the world when we work with the other member states in Europe and, therefore, there is "a patriotic case to be made" for ratifying the constitution. The contrast he makes is between "working with Europe" and "narrow pessimistic isolation"..

Interestingly, as an example of the "successes" to be gained from "working with Europe" he cites Iran – without mentioning that the EU-inspired negotiations with the mad mullahs are going nowhere – yet he does not mention the singular success he has been part of in working with the US in bringing democratic elections to the peoples of Iraq – in the face of opposition from the EU.

Were we stronger in Iraq working with the EU, or were we stronger because we worked with the US, wholly outside the framework of the EU? Was indeed working with the US an example of "narrow pessimistic isolation"?

The omission of Iraq actually typifies the selectivity of the Straw approach so it was with some agreement that I heard Michael Ancram note that the strategy of the foreign secretary was to avoid informing the public debate, "to keep it as short as possible" and to use as much propaganda as possible.

I do not always agree with Ancram but in this, he certainly seems right. The whole tactic of the government seems to be to keep the issues tight, to repeat the same mantras time and time again, and hope that enough people will believe them to make the difference.

What we are going to have to tackle, therefore, is the mantra that not ratifying the constitution means we will be "isolated".

Apart from the obvious fact that we remain in the EU (unfortunately) if we do not ratify, we are still members of Nato, the UN, G8, the Commonwealth, and diverse other international organisations - to say nothing of having a "special relationship"with the United States. How in those circumstances does rejecting the constitution make us isolated?

*****

Kenneth Clarke also gave a speech and a very unhappy bunny he was. He spent most of his ten minutes railing against the decision to have a referendum, complaining that it weakened the hand of ministers in Europe. How could they make deals if they then had to go back and get their voters to agree them, he asked.

It is going to be fun dissecting his speech tomorrow, when we have the Hansard text.

Jim Naughtie interviews Jack Straw

Extracts from this morning's Today programme. Jim Naughtie picks up the point about this treaty not being the last, that it is part of a process. Straw is obviously uneasy with this line, denies it and changes the subject.

JN: Isn't it obvious… that most people in this country agree with what Michael Ancram said earlier that this constitution is a gateway to a country called Europe and don’t believe that if they sign up to the constitution that this would be an end of it?

JS: …Let me just deal with this central issue about whether this constitutional treaty is… an irreversible first step towards a country called Europe or it fixes the limits of Europe. The truth is… that it does the second and not the first. It does provide… a stable framework and it literally limits the powers of the European Union and says two other things.

Number one: all of these powers come from the nation states that make up this club. Number two, there is provision by which some of the powers, as national parliaments and national government collectively have to decide, can be handed back to the national governments themselves.

And it does other, very important things which should be reassuring for the British public. It makes the European Union better managed, which we need. It also provides for a far greater level of accountability of what happens in Brussels, both to national governments and to national parliaments.

This latter point is really important. I want to see a Brussels which is more accountable. They do make decision which we want them to make, but which have, for example the Common Agricultural policy, have important effects on the United Kingdom. So we want more accountability. We’re going to get it

JN: But foreign secretary, aren’t people right to look at this constitution and say that it is likely to go further in the direction that it takes us rather than back. It’s perfectly accurate to say that of course it allows for powers to be given back, so to speak – it’s a crude way to put it – as well as the other way around. That’s absolutely true.

But what people say is look, this is part of a process and it’s a process which is reducing the number of areas over which the veto is uses. Of course Europe moves by consent. Of course things can’t happen in various areas if a country objects. All that is true.

But aren’t they right to say that this is a referendum, which in the view of many people, inside the system, not just in Brussels, but in many other European capitals is a step along a road and if you don’t want to go down that road, which is a choice people are perfectly free to make, they’re right to say no to this constitution

JS: No. I understand the sentiment, but actually it’s wrong. What this does is say thus far and no further and actually brings back in practice influence to the nation state.

JN: Do you think nobody wants another treaty on top of this one? People are talking about it in Europe all the time.

JS. I don’t think they are. I tell you… anybody who's been through the experience of negotiating a treaty certainly doesn’t want another treaty. There is a sense… that there have been many treaties in the last 15 years and anybody who thinks

We needed, number one, to consolidate the treaties and number two, we wanted to make the way in which the treaties operated more accountable to national parliaments and national peoples….

To be continued. My suspicion is that the "continuing process" argument is the one to emphasise. Naughtie has picked up that, "People are talking about it in Europe all the time." It is undeniable because it is true. Saying "yes" to the constitution is like putting your signature on a blank cheque.

The case for the constitution

Following on from the "no" case here, this is the "yes" offering on the Today programme this morning from Robert Cooper. Cooper is a former FCO senior official, styled as Tony Blair's foreign policy guru and currently Director General for External and Politico-Military Affairs, Council of the European Union – Javier Solana’s right-hand man.

This is the most successful period in the history of Europe: the longest peace, the greatest prosperity, open markets, freedom of movement. In historical terms this is a miracle, and the European Union deserves most of the credit.

Just how extraordinary this is you can see in central Europe. The countries there are now all democracies and they’re growing in prosperity and they’re all members of the European Union. Once Europe was a source of war; now it's the factor for stability and democracy. This is a success story and I want the UK to be part of it.

To remain an influential player, we need to ratify the constitutional treaty. Personally, I'm not sure if constitution is the right word. This suggests dramatic changes. In fact, this is treaty which consolidates, fixes, sets a stable framework.

Treaty of Rome spoke of an ever closer union implying a constant transfer of power to Brussels. This has gone. The constitution lists the powers of the Union and the limits on those powers. It will provide a stable permanent and predictable framework for Europe and for Britain.

The area that I know best is foreign policy. Here, there’s an important change in the creation of a single voice for the European Union. But foreign policy will still be decided by each country making up its own mind, by co-operation. There is not going to be a European army.

We're now moving into a world of continents, America, China, India. It's difficult for small and medium-sized countries to have an enormous impact on their own. But 25 of us together can be a powerful force. Britain itself has enormous influence in Europe, both in domestic and in foreign policy.

We have never been more effective and more influential than we are today, To isolate ourselves in a body where we have so many friends and so much influence seems completely crazy.

Key quote: "the European Union deserves most of the credit"... hmmm. Because of, or in spite of? We will be posting the Jack Straw interview as soon as we can.

Something cheerful in the state of Denmark

Denmark’s centre-right party, led by Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen, has won a comfortable second term in an election called a few months earlier than was absolutely necessary.

Why is that cheerful? Because this particular Danish government was the exact opposite of what we are told by American and British proponents of European “soft power”, European governments are and should be.

Mr Rasmussen has introduced welfare reforms and under his coalition government of Liberals, Conservatives and what passes for far right in Denmark People’s Party, the country’s GDP grew by 2.4 per cent last year. This is expected to be repeated this year. A spectacularly good result in western Europe.

The government had defied various human rights groups and imposed a strict control on immigration. Numbers were limited in order to focus attention on the need for those already in Denmark to integrate in the country and its liberal society. Welfare payments for new immigrants were reduced.

The most controversial part of Mr Rasmussen’s policy has been his support for the United States in the war against terror, specifically, in Iraq, and a consequent rise in the defence bill. There was a demonstration against the war on Saturday and there have been some calls to bring the 525 Danish soldiers back.

Mr Rasmussen has made it clear that he does not intend to change his policy. Interestingly, his socialist opponent decided not to campaign on the issue.

The European constitution, which will go to a referendum, probably later this year, was not part of the election campaign either.

France in turmoil?

One wonders what Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice made of it all. She told President Chirac and repeated to Foreign Minister Barnier that the time had come “to turn over a new page” in the relationship between Paris and Washington.

Upon which Michel Barnier solemnly announced:

"I'd like to say in public how much better the world works when the United States and Europe work together."
How frightfully nice of him. Of course, France is not Europe and not even the European Union, but that is not something a Foreign Minister of France would ever agree to. (Unless, of course, it is a question of sending troops to some former French colony, like the Ivory Coast. Then it becomes a matter of having some special understanding of West Africa because parts of it had been colonized by France. Europe does not get a look in.)

One assumes that a good deal of Condoleeza Rice’s trip round Europe, preparing the ground for President Bush’s own is by way of propaganda for domestic consumption. Look, she will be able to say, we have been nice to the Europeans, or, to be quite precise, the old Europeans. Now, let us see what they do in return.

Very little, is the general opinion, since there is very little they can do. Deutsche Welle quotes Stephan Bierling, an expert on US foreign policy at the University of Regensburg:
“European-American relations will improve in style and, above all, in atmosphere, but in strategic basic decisions there won’t be rapprochement with Secretary of State Rice either. The Americans’ absolute priority triad – Iraq,China and Iran – continues unchanged, and in all three aspects, the Europeans,particularly Germany and France, have nothing to add.”
I wouldn’t put it quite like that myself. In the matter of China, for instance, the Europeans, particularly Germany and France, have quite a lot to add and all of it will complicate matters between them and the United States, as well as help to destabilize the Far East and send the wrong signal to the Chinese government.

In Iran, the Franco-German-British attempts to negotiate have once again been stymied because the Iranian parliament, the Majlis, has just voted either to cancel or diminish significantly agreements with foreign firms, such as the Turkish mobile phone operator, Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri AS. One of the major planks of the great European negotiation with Iran was the carrot of foreign investment, that is now being frozen by firms who do not like economic uncertainty produced by governments.

Meanwhile, the French government is grappling with a serious internal problem. Despite the major demonstrations this week-end against the lifting of the 35 hour limit on the working week, a law has been passed by the Lower House of the Assemblée Nationale, which amends the socialist regulation.

Private firms will now be able to negotiate special deals with their workers to take the working week up to the EU’s limit of 48 hours. The bill has to go to the Senate, who is expected to pass it next month. President Chirac will most probably sign it without any demur.

France’s unemployment has risen to 10 per cent of the work force and has become endemic in certain sections. Since 1999 the country’s per capita productivity has decreased 4.3 per cent. The demonstrators may have proclaimed that they did not want to have to work more than 35 hours, others in the country have not had the luxury of choice for some time.

A flurry of activity

The imminent second reading of the European Union Bill is certainly triggering a flurry of activity on the EU constitution front. Not least, Jack Straw has dragged himself from the virtual world of the FCO website, to "go on the offensive" in a rare Labour press conference on Europe.

His theme, though, was to attack the Conservatives for "offering a false prospectus" on the EU, by suggesting they could renegotiate terms of membership. Straw described Tory plans as "a fantasy and a deception".

Mr Straw claimed yesterday: "The Tories have gone step by step towards a policy that calls for a sweeping renegotiation of the terms of British membership of the EU. It is an impossible and unworkable policy, but one that would leave Britain isolated and weakened."

"Claiming that Britain can accept the bits of being an EU member it likes and withdraw from all the others, is.. a fantasy, a posture designed to appease hardline Euro-sceptics without causing excessive alarm to moderates."

On the other side of the coin, the Institute of Directors has published a poll of its members which shows that nearly half of the 1000 questioned – 49 percent – opposed the EU constitution against 29 percent who supported it, with 20 percent undecided.

However, in a finding that suggested that there was everything to play for, 43 percent of those polled indicated that they could be influenced by arguments from campaigners, while only 25 percent claimed to be even moderately informed about the constitution.

Meanwhile, Labour's Robin Cook, Conservative MP Kenneth Clarke and Liberal Democrat foreign affairs spokesman Sir Menzies Campbell have teamed up, emerging from the wood work to claim that it was in Britain's interests to ratify the controversial document.

Clarke applauded the fact that the debate about the EU constitution was getting under way," adding that the public will now be able to find out that "the treaty is a rule book for a group of nation states who have chosen to work together for the common good of their citizens and not the blueprint for a superstate".

Cook parroted the government line – first time for everything, given that he has opposed it consistently over Iraq – saying that the new constitution would allow Europe to function more effectively. "It will strengthen democracy and give more power to national parliaments. It will ensure that Europe is equipped to meet the challenges of the future and deliver jobs and growth," he said."

The Tories, through their foreign affairs spokesman Michael Ancram, chose to respond on points of detail, charging that Labour had been "against an EU constitution, but now they've signed up to it, they were against giving the EU control over asylum, but they've broken that pledge". He added: "They said an EU foreign minister would be 'unacceptable', but the constitution provides for one."

For the first time in a while, it seems, the campaign has actually stirred from its torpor, although it can hardly be said that the "debate" has started. Little heat, less light, and much posturing seems to have been the order of the day.

Tuesday, February 08, 2005

The BBC and the constitution

Tomorrow morning, at 8.10, the BBC Radio 4 Today programme will be running a major feature to coincide with the second reading of the European Union Bill.

The piece will start with two speakers, one presenting the case for the EU constitution and the other against, followed by a long interview with Jack Straw.

Speaking for the constitution will be Robert Cooper, former FCO senior official, styled as Tony Blair's foreign policy guru and currently Director General for External and Politico-Military Affairs, Council of the European Union – Javier Solana’s right-hand man. There's glory for you.

Against the constitution is this Blogger, with this piece already recorded:

The case for the "no" side

This constitutional treaty is part of an ongoing process – it is just one more step in a project aimed at creating a government of Europe, devised by the political élites, without the informed assent of their peoples. Completion will mean the end of us as a self-governing country. Britain will be relegated to the status of a county council, subordinate to a central government in Brussels.

That is the danger. It we allow this treaty through, there will be another one behind, and another – as many as it takes to get to the destination. Insiders are already saying they want another treaty within a few years. The last commission even produced a detailed report on what it should contain.

We have seen this before. And each time a new treaty is agreed, this nation loses more power. We lose 63 vetoes in this treaty, bringing the total to 200 so far. How many more next time?

This referendum, therefore, is the opportunity – perhaps the last opportunity – to stop the process before it is too late. But that won’t mean we leave the EU – far from it. It will simply mean that we have stopped the express train of European integration. It will give us, the people of Europe, time to work out what we really want.

So, unless you want to be on board a runaway train, set to smash into the buffers, now is the time to pull the communication cord. That is why we must say “no” to the constitution.
We will be listening in the morning and hope to post a transcript of the relevant parts of the piece.

Myth Three

The FCO has posted again on its website, and this one is a corker. Today's "myth" is: "Primacy" means that the EU controls our laws".

For sheer chutzpah, you really have to give it to Jack Straw and his merry men: "EU law", says the FCO, "protects British business and consumers." Tell that to the fishermen.

Protection like that, they don't need – nor do we need the "food supplements" directive,which is going to prevent us buying thousands of different vitamin preparations, or the meat hygiene regulations, which have closed down more than four-fifths of our slaughterhouses, or the egg regulations which stop shopkeepers selling loose eggs in a basket, or the droit de suite directive, that is going to mess up the UK art market, costing thousands of jobs, or the "metric" directive, which makes it a criminal offence to sell bananas by the pound... and so on.

And now for the fun bit. Says the FCO:

Britain agrees rules with other European countries covering trade, access to markets and common standards. We need those rules to enjoy the benefits of Europe's single market of 450 million people, the largest in the world. They create one rulebook for 25 countries to follow. These rules aren't inflicted on us – we help write them. 'Primacy' of European law means nations can't use domestic rules as an excuse to get around those promises.
The lies here are both by act and omission. The omissions are glaring. The whole focus is on trade. But what about environment, immigration, road safety, passports, fishing, agriculture, competition, state aid, and so on?

As to agreeing the rules with other European (he means EU member states) – well, what about qualified majority voting, where we don’t agree the rules but are outvoted. What about all the times when, in anticipation of being outvoted, we stage a tactical retreat and either abstain or vote for a proposal, simply so as to avoid expending political capital?

No Mr Straw, many of the rule do not agree, or would not if we were free agents.

"Primacy", the FCO then says, "simply means everybody sticking to the rules that we agree at European level." Well, notwithstanding that we don't always agree the rules, there is nothing "simply" about it. This is far too neutral a way of putting it. We are forced to obey the rules, on plain of whacking penalties if we do not comply.

And now for a straight lie: "Where we have not agreed to act together at European level, there is no EU primacy." That is the point of primacy. Even where we do not agree, the law can be imposed on us and we have no choice but to obey. Having been outvoted, we cannot "take our bat home" and ignore the law. We are still bound by it.

"Without primacy of EU law," the FCO explains, making the point for us, "governments could use national laws to get around common trade rules and standards." Precisely the point. WE no longer have freedom to act.

And the lies go on. "Without primacy, we could not guarantee a level playing field for British business in Europe or common standards for British consumers," the FCO claims. The point here is that, even with primacy, there is no guaranteed level playing field. More to the point, because other member state – and to an extent even the UK – evades the laws, there can never be a level playing field. The pursuit of the idea is facile.

The FCO must also rely on us having bad memories: "Without primacy, we could not have turned to the European Court of Justice to overturn the French ban on British beef." Er… yes, the ECJ overturned the ban. And then what happened? The French government ignored the ECJ. Fat lot of good that did us.

On one point though, we can agree – although some don't – that "Primacy of European Law is not new. It was already well established as a central principle of the single market well before the UK joined the EEC in 1973 and has been reflected in UK law ever since." That we do not dispute.

And now for some more weasel words from your sponsors:

No international organisation could function if domestic law undermined treaties. Whether it's the WTO, the UN, NATO or the EU, no international organisation could function if its members used national laws to get around international commitments. Once made, agreements with other nations must be kept in good faith and domestic law must respect them.
This is an old trick, trying to equate the different international organisations. But take Nato, for instance, this is an intergovernmental organisation. All decisions are by unanimity. No decision may be forced on an unwilling member. The EU is supranational. It can impose its will on member states.

Take the WTO. There is no ECJ – merely a disputes procedure. The panel can only hear a case if all parties to the case agree and then the court cannot impose penalties. It can only allow one or more party to impose penalties against offending parties.

Take the UN: again, an intergovernmental organisation. Britain has an absolute veto on the Security Council. The UN cannot impose its will on the UK. The EU can. The comparisons are dishonest in the extreme.

And now for the finale.

The European Court of Justice defends those rules. The ECJ decides whether countries have broken the rules. It interprets the laws agreed by the national Governments, reaches judgements and can impose penalties. In recent years the Court has reached verdicts including upholding bathing water rules and penalising toxic waste dumping.
No, the ECJ enforces the rule. It interprets the treat and, as we know, makes up rules on the hoof, indulging in what is known as "legal adventurism" (and here). It is not a judicial but a political court, dedicated to furthering the cause of European integration.

So, Mr Straw, you need to try harder. My guess, though, is you have played your strongest cards. It is now downhill all the way.

The single European airbrush

Fraud is back on the agenda, brought to us courtesy of a new blogger: "England expects" from which much is expected.

Its tale concerns that obscure – to the point of being virtually unknown – "advisory body" of the EU, the European Economic and Social Committee that body which produces worthy reports on commission proposals that no one can remember.

But, worthy documents require worthies to produce them and they, in the way of things EU, require constant lubrication by way of expenses. And, also in the way of things EU, these trusted worthies are so deep into the trough that they – or at least one of them – has been claiming their expenses twice, and has been getting them paid. Over the last six years, up to €45,000 may have gone missing.

More embarrassingly, allegations of this malpractice last year were vigorously denied. But so strident were that that, according Agence Europe, in April 2004, that ever-vigilant watchdog, the EU parliament:

…gave smooth discharge to the EESC's implementation of its 2002 budget, thanking the EESC for transmitting to the EP details of internal measures governing the execution of its budget, and the mission statement of its internal auditor. In its resolution, the EP said it took note of the assurances given by the EESC that no irregularities had occurred in the travel expense accounts.
However, it seems that the denials were not good enough for the EU’s anti-fraud office, OLAF which has just come up with a report that confirms that an (unnamed) EESC member has indeed been indulging in double dipping.

That much has been admitted by the EESC, in an anodyne and thus widely ignored press release issued on 4 February.

However, courtesy of England expects, we learn that the airbrush had been heavily at work before this production was allowed to see the light of day. The original draft of the release actually stated: "there is strong prima facie evidence that the fraudulent practice of ‘double reimbursement’ occurred. But, in the published version, a copy of which this Blog has obtained, the text becomes: "there is strong prima facie evidence that the practice of 'double reimbursement' occurred."

And to spare the political blushes of EESC president, the fragrant Anne-Marie Sigmund, the OLAF report which was sent, "to the President and the Secretary General of the European Economic and Social Committee ", became: "to the Secretary General of the European Economic and Social Committee". Of course the reference to "alleged fraudulent behaviour by a member of the Committee" became "allegations made about a member of the Committee".

One wonders whether Peter Mandelson might have had a hand in writing the second draft but, whether or not he did, it is very clear that the single European airbrush has been at work. However, OLAF is forwarding its findings to the Belgian public prosecutor, which may be beyond the range of the airbrush.

Guantanamo and the French

Great rejoicing: as Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice visits Paris it has been announced that the last three French detainees in Guantanamo Bay, Mustaq Ali Patel, Ridouane Khalid and Khaled Ben Mustafa, will be handed over to the French authorities.

Details have not been finalized but Mr Patel’s lawyer has already announced that “things are moving in the right direction”.

I do hope he will go on thinking that for some time to come. According to French law the detainees will arrive in France and go before a French judge to determine whether there is a case against them or whether they should be held anyway.

The last four Frenchmen released from Guantanamo are still being held in France in unspecified location as part of an ongoing investigation into terrorist networks. One wonders whether they really do prefer being where they are now.

The joys of totalitarianism

Not least of the reasons behind the EU’s love affair with China must be – I suspect – a certain jealousy.

Managing a disparate group of 25 member states is not dissimilar to trying to herd cats and, in the deep recesses of their hearts, I am sure many a functionnaire must secretly wish for the certainties of absolute power afforded to the totalitarian rulers of China.

Consider, for instance, the ongoing farce of the EU's emission trading scheme, where the latest news, conveyed by courtesy of the Daily Telegraph, is of continued delays in implementation arising from a "row" between the British government and the commission over the precise levels of carbon dioxide industry will be permitted to pump into the atmosphere before they attract massive fines or will have to buy "carbon credits".

Now compare with the situation in China, where the rulers are not only untroubled by the crass idiocies of Kyoto but are also mercifully free from the influences of the bunny-huggers and are able to forge ahead with their own innovative solution to the energy crisis, in a response that may, in the end, do more to curb CO2 emissions than any amount of well-meaning guff from Brussels.

That "innovative solution", of course, is nuclear power, but not the conventional path. First mentioned on this Blog in October last, the Chinese are pioneering the unique "pebble bed" reactor which, if successful, seems set to deliver all the early promises made of nuclear energy, with none of the major safety problems.

With a test plant already in place, China is now poised to go into commercial production. With the Huaneng consortium, one of China's biggest power producers, having decided on a site in the eastern province of Shandong to build a 195MW gas-cooled power plant. The proposed reactor is expected to start producing electricity within five years.

If successful, this pebble bed reactor would be the first of a radical new design. A high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGRs), the heart of the system is a small core fed by low-enriched uranium fuel consisting of half-millimetre-sized particles of uranium dioxide encased in graphite and silicon carbide, which in turn are encased in billiard-ball sized graphite balls.

The size of the balls and the coating is gauged precisely to allow critical mass to be maintained at the normal operation temperature of 700°C but, if the core overheats, the coating expands increasing the distances between the uranium cores, losing the critical mass and damping down the reaction.

Thus, in the event of what would otherwise be a catastrophic loss of coolant, the system is self-limiting and closes down automatically. In tests, researchers at Tsinghua's Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology have actually switched off all its safety systems a move that would be suicidal madness in an ordinary reactor and watched the reactor cool down on its own.

Instead of the water coolant in conventional reactors, helium gas is used as the primary heat transfer medium and, because the uptake of radioactivity of helium gas is minimal, waste reduction is minimised. Further, the system operates without the high pressure involved in the conventional reactor and can dispense with the expensive containment vessel which is standard on existing designs.

The pebble-bed design actually pre-dates the conventional nuclear pile, but the design was never pursued by the US. A research plant was established in Germany but encountered technical problems and resistance by environmental activists, whence patents were acquired by South African interests.

However, plans for a pilot plant near Cape Town, developed by Eskom, the South African power utility, US-based Exelon and British Nuclear Fuels, have also been stalled by environmental challenges.

That has left China, which has links with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, to operate the world's only test pebble bed reactor outside Beijing and is providing the technology for the planned power station.

One the concept has been established, and few doubt that it will be, it not only offers the prospect of plentiful, cheap electricity but it is planned that surplus capacity will be used to produce hydrogen through another innovative process of high-temperature electrolysis, using also the waste heat from the reactors.

Chain, therefore, in addition to solving its pressing electricity generation crisis, could also end up being the world’s first "hydrogen economy", with the beneficial entirely incidental side-effect of massively reducing carbon emissions.

It is thus hugely ironic that the undemocratic, totalitarian, Kyoto-free People’s Republic of China possible hold the key to the holy grail of emission reduction that the bunny-hugging, environmentally friendly EU seeks but has singularly failed to achieve, for all its mountains of regulations and initiatives.

Arguably, therefore, the answer to saving the planet is totalitarianism, a sentiment with which most Greens would heartily agree – not for nothing are they called the "water-melons": green on the outside and red inside – but there is another option: leadership.

In a democratic state, major changes are achieved by leadership: vision, courage, persuasion and argument. But since the EU is not a democracy, and cannot aspire to the status of a totalitarian state, it seems to doomed to failure.

The new protectionism

Wait long enough and they will eventually catch up with us. That could well be the new motto of this Blog, bearing in mind that in early August last year, we wrote a story on how EU food safety rules were pole-axing Kenyan growers.

So complex and expensive to implement were these rules that hundreds of businesses were giving up the ghost. Food safety had become the new protectionalism, replacing the tariff barriers of old.

We revisited the issue again in August, with a tale about how health and safety rules were hampering small Chinese IT manufacturers, and came back to the Kenyan problem in December when we remarked that, "with its obsession for bureaucracy," the EU was gradually killing off local farmers in Kenya, just as its own CAP has been progressively wiping out small farmers in EU member states - all in the name of "health 'n' safety".

Now, wonder of wonders, the hyper-active Mr Mandelson has been up in front of the Commons international development committee, talking about this very subject.

According to a BBC report, he told the committee members that EU food hygiene laws "could be (notice the "could be") seen as a bid to protect European markets against competition," and argued it was important that "proper protection" of EU citizens did not become protection against developing countries' products.

He acknowledged that there were concerns about this "sensitive" issue that had to be taken seriously. But he also revealed quite how sensitive it was, admitting that "a ton of bricks" had been dropped on him last time he raised the issue with the "colleagues".

Nevertheless, he also admitted that "strong vested interests" were insisting that protection of "EU citizens" must be paramount "even down to the possible threat of one in a billion", and that these standards were perhaps having "an unforeseen side effects to the detriment of developing country products".

However, according to Mandelson, the "perhaps" was clearly hypothetical. Despite the wails of Kenyan farmers, and even Chinese and Indian farmers, from whom, Mandelson conceded, the EU had received "a lot of complaints" - with these developing countries claiming that the measures were acting as non-tariff barriers to trade, denying them entry to the EU markets - there was no problem.

According to the trade commissioner, when it came to the line between excessive safety measures and protection of "EU citizens", he had "no evidence" that line had been crossed. This man is obviously going to go far in the European Union.

Japan, too, is worried

An article in yesterday’s International Herald Tribune looked at another aspect of the China problem. One country that is getting distinctly edgy is Japan, and this despite a great deal of Japanese investment in China and growing trade between the two countries.

In fact, so edgy is Japan that recently its government has once again been fostering good relations with the United States, and erstwhile proponents of the need for Japanese “independence” are now speaking in favour of that development. The growing enemy is China.

“Japan lobbies Europe and Russia not to sell advanced weapons to China's military; China opposes Japan's aspirations to a seat on the UN Security Council. China fumes at Japan's friendly relations with Taiwan; Japan wonders why it is giving aid to a nation that has a program to put a man on the moon.

For years, Japan reflexively smoothed over any frictions with China. But its patience may be spent.

Last November, Japanese destroyers chased a Chinese submarine from around Japan's southernmost islands; in December, Tokyo formally identified Beijing as a potential military threat. Ignoring Chinese objections, Japan welcomed Lee Teng-hui, a former president of Taiwan, on a visit last month, and the Dalai Lama is expected in April.Over the last 25 years, Japan has provided China with nearly $30 billion in development loans, a fact rarely mentioned in China's news media.

During his four years in office, Koizumi has cut development aid to China in half, and he is now considering halting it entirely. "I think it's graduation time," he told reporters recently.”
And where will the European Union stand in all this?

Monday, February 07, 2005

The government really understands its business

It is becoming more and more obvious that the American government, whose military and intelligence support is a good deal more necessary to us than that of, say, Luxembourg or Belgium (even if we could get this), is getting more and more anxious about the EU proposal to lift the arms ban on China.

At the same time human rights organizations are falling over themselves to show that China has not actually transmogrified itself into a liberal democracy and John Stuart Mill has not become the best known writer in that country.

Our own government, on the other hand, seems to be living in some kind of a fool’s paradise. Last week, in the House of Lords, there was a short debate on the subject.

Lord Willoughby de Broke asked Her Majesty’s Government

“Whether they intend to resume arms sales to China”.
On behalf of HMG Baroness Symons explained firmly but kindly that there are already “exports of equipment on the military list from this country to China”. But the EU embargo does not prohibit such exports so that’s OK.
“Our exports are subject to the UK’s consolidated criteria, which are among the strictest control measures anywhere in the world and, in our view, offer the best guarantee that military exports will not be used for internal repression nor external aggression.”
I hate saying it, but the views of Baroness Symons and her colleagues count for very little with the Chinese Politburo and there is very little those control measures can accomplish once the equipment from the military list has gone to Beijing or, more to the point, to the Straits in order to menace Taiwan.

Lord Willoughby pushed the matter further and enquired whether the Noble Minister had discussed these matters with “our close allies, the United States of America”.

His fears were pooh-poohed. Clearly, Lord Willoughby and other peers, for instance, Lord Faulkner of Worcester, have misunderstood the situation. The word embargo has confused them. There never was a complete embargo, therefore, obviously, it cannot be lifted. There will merely be more and more and more sales of arms to China.

Well, that’s all right there. Had me worried for a moment. Of course, the noble baroness forgot to reply to the question about the United States and its attitude but one cannot have everything. However, she did add:
“Under our forthcoming EU presidency, the UK Government would like to discuss strengthening in a number of key respects the code which regulates the export of items on the military list throughout the European Union.”
No doubt it would. And no doubt there will be discussions. And no doubt there will be solemn agreements. How will that affect anything of any importance?

Pushing their luck

In recent months, China watchers have noted an alarming hardening of rhetoric from the Chinese government, with statements about the US redolent of the cold war emanating from the leadership.

Most recently, in December, there was an extraordinarily strident piece on the US resistance to the lifting of the EU’s arms embargo, published by the official English language newspaper, China Daily.

Now, the paper is using an American author, Michael Lind, Whitehead Senior Fellow at the New America Foundation, the supposedly "centrist" US think-tank, to write a piece denouncing his own country.

Headed, "The new US century is over", Lind opens with Bush’s "second inaugural address" citing his declaration: "Today, America speaks anew to the peoples of the world."

Writes Lind, though, "the peoples of the world, however, do not seem to be listening. A new world order is indeed emerging - but its architecture is being drafted in Asia and Europe, at meetings to which Americans have not been invited."

Lind’s thesis is that trade blocs like Asean Plus Three (APT), which unites the member countries of the Association of Southeast Asia Nations with China, Japan and South Korea, and recent moves by South American countries to bolster an economic community represent a clear rejection of US aims to dominate a western-hemisphere free trade zone.

Added to that is:

...the EU's rapid progress toward military independence. American protests failed to prevent the EU establishing its own military planning agency, independent of the Nato alliance (and thus of Washington). Europe is building up its own rapid reaction force. And despite US resistance, the EU is developing Galileo, its own satellite network, which will break the monopoly of the US global positioning satellite system.
Lind notes that the participation of China in Europe's Galileo project has alarmed the US military, but "China shares an interest with other aspiring space powers in preventing American control of space for military and commercial uses." Even while collaborating with Europe on Galileo, he adds, China is partnering Brazil to launch satellites. And in an unprecedented move, China recently agreed to host Russian forces for joint Russo-Chinese military exercises.

This, Lind argues, means that "the US is being sidelined" even in the area that Mr Bush identified in last week's address as America's mission: the promotion of democracy and human rights. The EU, he says, has devoted far more resources to consolidating democracy in post-communist Europe than has the US. By contrast, under Mr Bush, the US hypocritically uses the promotion of democracy as the rationale for campaigns against states it opposes for strategic reasons.

Washington denounces tyranny in Iran but tolerates it in Pakistan. In Iraq, the goal of democratisation was invoked only after the invasion, which was justified earlier by claims that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction and was collaborating with al-Qaeda.
And so it continues:

Nor is American democracy a shining example to mankind. The present one-party rule in the US has been produced in part by the artificial redrawing of political districts to favour Republicans, reinforcing the domination of money in American politics. America's judges - many of whom will be appointed by Mr Bush - increasingly behave as partisan political activists in black robes. America's antiquated winner-take-all electoral system has been abandoned by most other democracies for more inclusive versions of proportional representation.
But the main theme that emerges is a tilt against US unilateralism, or "unipolarity". Lind concedes that the US remains the only country capable of projecting military power throughout the world, but that is "not preventing the rapid development of multipolarity in the geopolitical and economic arenas". Other "great powers" are content to let the US waste blood and treasure on its doomed attempt to recreate the post-first world war British imperium in the Middle East. Adds Lind:

That the rest of the world is building institutions and alliances that shut out the US should come as no surprise. The view that American leaders can be trusted to use a monopoly of military and economic power for the good of humanity has never been widely shared outside of the US. The trend toward multipolarity has probably been accelerated by the truculent unilateralism of the Bush administration, whose motto seems to be that of the Hollywood mogul: 'Include me out'."
Today, Lind claims, practically all new international institution-building of any long-term importance in global diplomacy and trade occurs without American participation.

He cites Madeleine Albright in 1998 , then US secretary of state, saying of the US: "We are the indispensable nation." But, he argues, the unilateralism of Mr Bush has proven her wrong. The US, it turns out, is a dispensable nation. Europe, China, Russia, Latin America and other regions and nations are quietly taking measures whose effect if not sole purpose will be to cut America down to size.

The bullying approach of the Bush administration has ensured that the US will not be invited to take part in designing the international architecture of Europe and Asia in the 21st century. This time, the US is absent at the creation.
There, it seems, speaks an authentic member of the Bien-Pensant Opinion Association, the central tenet of which is that anything president Bush – and by inference, the US – does must be wrong.

But this idea of a "unipolar" America really is getting out of hand. In Iraq, for instance, 35 countries, in addition to the United States, have contributed a total of approximately 22,000 troops to ongoing stability operations.

These are Albania, Australia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Estonia, Georgia, Honduras, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Moldova, Mongolia, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Thailand, the Philippines, Romania, Slovakia, South Korea, Spain, Ukraine and the United Kingdom.

There was also the ad hoc "core group" of the United States, Australia, India and Japan, that so effectively delivered aid to the tsunami affected areas, as well as other partnerships in aid delivery. And, in terms of trade associations, the list of agreements is too extensive to list on this Blog, but the geographical scale is huge. For instance, the US has separate free agreements countries as disparate as Singapore, Jordan, as well as NAFTA.

Then there is ongoing Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA), a free trade agreement among 34 economies - all the countries of the Western Hemisphere with the exclusion of Cuba – which, when complete will be the largest regional integration ever between developed and developing countries.

There must be something seriously amiss when a US writer is given space in the journal of a totalitarian state to denounce his own country, and there is something odd when the rhetoric from the EU almost mirrors the Lind thesis. He, to say nothing of China, seem to be pushing their luck, and the EU is not far behind.

Myth Two: the European Army

Jack Straw's FCO has now published its second "myth" on the FCO website. This one is: "The Constitutional Treaty will create a European Army".

According to the FCO, "the facts" are that "British armed forces will remain under British control. Just as in NATO, our armed forces are deployed only with our Government's agreement. We choose whether to deploy them as part of an EU force."

The government's argument is that the current round of defence integration simply "adds another layer to our security":

European defence cooperation allows us to mount peacekeeping and conflict prevention missions using European military forces. We have already launched three such operations, in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, in the Democratic Republic of Congo and in Bosnia. We have also mounted civilian operations in Macedonia, Bosnia, Georgia and are about to do so in Democratic Republic of Congo.
Britain, says the FCO, keeps its veto over European defence. We negotiated successfully to keep our veto, allowing Britain to decide when the EU should act and only where NATO chooses not to. It does not undermine NATO, which according to Article I-41.7 "remains the foundation of our collective defence."

Furthermore, says the FCO, the European Defence Agency is not building a European Army. The official line is that the Agency, led by a British Chief Executive, is designed to help Member States develop their own capabilities and ensure that those capabilities are deployable, sustainable and able to operate together.

Once again, it seems, we are in "straw dog" territory. No one seriously argues that the constitution does create a European Army. But, as this Blog has consistently argued in numerous posts, defence integration is proceeding apace, often outside the remit of the treaties and certainly without the benefit of the constitution.

Interestingly, the government quotes Article I-41.7 but chooses not to inform readers that the self-same Article creates a fully-fledged military alliance, imposing obligations on member states which are more rigorous than the Nato treaty.

But the essence of military integration is that it is being done piecemeal, and the threat to Nato is that, as the EU develops its "defence identity", the US will become less interested in the Europe and progressively detach itself from the alliance – as is already happening

As always, the approach of the FCO grossly over-simplifies the issues. But are you surprised?

The battle of the airwaves

The Times this morning carries an extraordinary tale recording that the egregious Peter Mandelson has launched an attack on John Humphrys, the Today programme presenter, complaining to the BBC of his "virulently anti-European" views and claiming that the "anti-European bias" of some BBC presenters is a "problem".

This follows on from the report of the independent review panel published at the end of last month which found, in effect, that the BBC was is that the BBC is "institutionally biased" when it came to EU coverage – with the BBC Today programme often cited as a main culprit by critics of the BBC.

Mandelson was responding on European Commission paper to give his views on the review, but had asked the BBC to keep it confidential.

In what is described as a "stinging letter" to Michael Grade, the BBC Chairman, which the The Times has somehow "obtained", Mandelson has accused the BBC of failing in its charter obligation to promote "understanding" of European affairs and declared: "I do not think the present BBC coverage is good enough."

He suggests that the Today programme, presented by Mr Humphrys, used to be "biased in a marked Eurosceptic direction", but was now generally less Eurosceptic under its new editor Kevin Marsh. But he insisted: "There is still, however, a specific problem with the anti-European bias of some presenters, objective presenters to the public but who have many times committed themselves in print to virulently anti-European positions."

He is also reporting as saying that the BBC gave too much coverage to moderate Eurosceptics and should instead give more coverage to extreme Eurosceptics such as UKIP, who wanted to take Britain out of the EU altogether.

He disagreed with complaints from Eurosceptics that the BBC was institutionally pro-EU, saying: "From a pro-European perspective, I have never discerned any BBC tendency to over-represent our viewpoint or present our views as the consensus that all men and women of goodwill support. If there ever was such a tendency in the 1970s, it is long gone."

Humphrys has dismissed the criticism as political opportunism. "It’s delightful for once to be accused of being Eurosceptic when we’re usually accused at the Today programme of being Europhiles," he says, adding: "It’s interesting that Peter Mandelson has any idea of what my views on the subject are. I’m sure we’ll have more of this kind of thing from him in the run-up to the election."

A"leading moderate Eurosceptic" is cited as saying that the complaint that "UKIP views are… under-represented" is seen as a cynical ploy. "It just shows how cynical the Government is, wanting to make all Eurosceptics seem like loonies," the unnamed source says.

This is undoubtedly a "spoiler" by Mandelson, who undoubtedly correctly assesses that if he can engineer a complaint against the BBC, its corporate tendency is to suggest that, if it is getting complaints from both sides, then its coverage must be about right - even though the review panel rejected this suggestion.

But this also harks back to the 1975 campaign where the BBC deliberately gave most coverage to anti-EEC campaigners like Tony Benn and Enoch Powell, who then had "negative" profiles with the public, with the a view to discrediting the "no" campaign.

Mandelson almost certainly feels that giving UKIP speakers more coverage would have a similar effect, especially if it chooses representatives like Godfrey Bloom, who is the Europhile's ideal "anti-European". There is also a possibility that the BBC will attempt to use Kilroy to perform a similar role, with its emphasis on presenting his views as "extreme".

In the battle of the airwaves, therefore, with the BBC being closely monitored to ensure that its output is "balanced", the issue will not only be the amount of time allocated to each side but also the style of coverage and the speakers chosen to represent each case.

Mandelson, with his known tactical skills, is obviously making an early attempt to tilt the coverage in favour of the "yes" campaign.

Tackling the myths?

In the run-up to the second reading of the European Union Bill on 9 February, Jack Straw has launched a series of "factsheets" on the FCO website purportedly dealing with "the mythology of the Eurosceptics which distort so much of the European Union."

The first "myth", published yesterday, is stated in terms that: "Britain would lose control over foreign policy under the constitutional treaty."

Before dealing with the response, one has to note that this is classic "straw man" territory – rather appropriately coming from Jack Straw’s department, the FCO. It is putting up a spurious point in order to knock it down.

In fact, no one at all knowledgeable about the EU treaties would even begin to argue that Britain would lose control of foreign policy under the constitution. The point is, as is often the case in the incremental development of policy which typifies the EU, that we would lose even more control than we have already – albeit that some residual powers would remain.

Even the "Vote No" campaigners, who are not the sharpest knives in the drawer only argue this point, that we would have "less control" under the constitution.

Thus, the FCO response to their own "myth" is hardly relevant to the debate, as we are in the main fully aware that, as the FCO states, "Common foreign policy isn't new – [it] was introduced in the Maastricht Treaty a decade ago."

"Ten years on", claims the FCO, "we also still have a thriving British foreign policy. Because we have a veto in foreign policy there is only an EU common policy where we all agree. But where we don't, there is no EU policy."

This latter set of claims is, however, somewhat tendentious, as the areas in which we have ceded to EU "common policies" is quite outstanding.

In December 1998, the Lord Pearson, in a written parliamentary question, asked how many areas of "common interest" were being dealt with by EU working groups and the answer was an astonishing 28. These were:

Administrative Affairs
Africa
Armaments Policy
Asia
Central Europe
Communications
Consular Matters
Conventional Arms Exports
Drugs
Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Euro-Med (Mashreq/Maghreb)
Global Disarmament
Human Rights
Latin America
Law of the Sea
Mashreq/Maghreb
Middle East/Gulf
Middle East Peace Process
Nuclear Non-Proliferation
OSCE
Policy Planning
Protocol
Public International Law
Security
South-East Europe
Terrorism
United Nations
Western Balkans Region
The working groups are set up by the Presidency of the Council of the Union and report to the Council of the Union, meaning that the UK no longer has autonomy in the areas specified.

The reader will note that "armaments policy" is one of the common areas – which has particular relevance to the EU arms embargo on China – and that the whole of Africa is also an EU common area. This explains our lack-lustre performance on Zimbabwe, to say nothing of Sudan – as we have given over our policy-making in Africa to "joint action" by the EU.

The FCO, needless to say, does not state this, but claims in its "myth rebuttal" that that "has meant that we have the combined foreign policy strength of 25 Member States."

"Through the EU", it adds, "we're closely involved with the US, UN and Russia in the tackling the Middle East Peace Process. The European initiative on Iran led by Britain, France and Germany has carried much more weight than any one of us could have carried alone."

Interestingly, the FCO is still relying on Iran as an example of how well the EU’s foreign policy performs – despite the negotiations with Iran running into the sand – while not in any way mentioning Iraq - where our involvement with the US is closest.

Now, the constitution adds to the general powers of the EU, not least by appointing a "foreign minister", but the difficulty for the likes of the "Vote No" campaign - which supports our continued membership of the EU - is that so much has already been given away that the "extras" are relatively modest by comparison. This is also a problem for the Conservatives who, of course, gave those powers away at Maastricht.

And therein lies the central myth – that everything before the constitution is somehow acceptable yet only that which the constitution is objectionable. This is an issue that the "no" campaign is going to have to address before too long, or it is going to hamper the debate and confuse an already obscure message.

Sunday, February 06, 2005

Identity politics

[Health warning: this posting, too, may upset many of our readers.]

Undoubtedly our readers have noticed that identity politics is all the rage. Nobody knows exactly what it means but there is a great deal of discussion about it.

During European Week, organized by King’s College, London, my role was to take part in the discussion about European identity. There were to be four of us but one, the MP Gisela Stuart dropped out at the last minute as she was ill.

One other member of the panel was the First Secretary of the American Embassy, who explained that he could not really comment on European identity, being American but did a good enough job explaining to an audience of young must-be-anti-Americans that actually the Yanks were human beings just like everyone else.

Finally, there was the Bishop of London, whose beautiful voice and delivery charmed everyone and who tried to be nice to everyone. He did say that he hated the new constitution and was very disappointed in the way the EU was going and, at one point, made it clear that in his opinion European identity had to involve an understanding of God.

My role, as ever, was to play the bad cop. Or, to be precise, to pour cold water on the whole concept of a European identity, as opposed to national identity, that should not preclude knowledge and understanding of others.

During the informal discussion after the conclusion of the formal part of the evening, several of the students wondered aloud why we should even be discussing a subject that best resembled the burning question of the number of angels on the head of a pin.

My flippant response was that academics like setting problems like that as few of them have managed to recover from the ending of the old scholastic discourses.

More seriously, I pointed out that the question of European identity has been raised by the ideologues of the European Union for two reasons. One is the obvious one and they freely admit to it:

The project has been created and pushed through entirely by the various European elites with as little reference to the people of Europe as possible. As it reaches the final stages of completion, there has been a rather panicky understanding of an absence of popular support, which may well destroy the whole structure. Therefore, the concept of a European identity had to be produced to be discussed and, if needs be, constructed.

So far, this has been unsuccessful. Even among my audience only one girl insisted that she felt European rather than anything else. But then, she also thought that it was right and proper that the constitution should be written by experts and no democratic changes should be allowed; that regulations were there to help people who needed guidance; and that the idea of a war between France and Germany was entirely credible. I think we can all guess at her future career.

The other young people and not so young people from many parts of Europe and outside it, were largely bemused by the whole problem and certainly open to persuasion about the wrongness of the system’s unaccountability.

The other reason for the sudden appearance of the “European identity” and identity politics in general is a somewhat more sinister one. It is really a way of directing energy and discussion away from ordinary politics and to ensure that the latter is left to those in charge, the experts, the various transnational organizations and their representatives on earth.

There were several revolts or uprisings of varying severity against the Communist system in Eastern Europe. After each suppression, 1956, 1968, 1980, the people in those countries retreated into private life. Not that they had no private life before, but as the Soviet tanks rolled, it was understood that there can be nothing but private life. Public life became so circumscribed and besmirched that no reasonable person could seriously participate in it. And if one did, as one had to, it was to be done as quickly and painlessly as possible.

The rulers and their various spokespersons in the media bemoaned this fact but were not unduly bothered. A society full of people who spend their time in their home and discussing bothersome problems of identity was no danger to its political masters.

Identity politics is a denial of politics, an acknowledgement that it is no longer something individuals should be involved in.

This is of some importance to us, as there has been a tendency in this country for people to retreat from politics and political activity in its widest sense of the word. It is, of course, always somebody else’s fault why it happened.

The politicians lied to us, other people are stupid, the government should do something about it, politics should be taken out of whatever subject is under discussion, and so on. But the net result is the same: people are turning away from any discussion of what should be done, how their lives should be led.

On the other hand, there is a good deal of talk about identity and what it means to be British, English, Scottish, European, what have you. There is considerably less talk about how to make sure that one’s child learns things.

Part of the problem is undoubtedly the political system we have found ourselves in. (There I go: found ourselves in. Of course, we did not find ourselves in it, we were part of its creation.) The European project has destroyed most of the meaning of politics.

As Mark Leonard of the Centre for European Reform explained: the politicians we elect, the civil servants who are supposed to work for us, the lawyers who are supposed to administer our law, have really become agents of the European Union.

They are our masters and they are unaccountable to us. Those who are supposedly accountable, the elected politicians, have no power.

But long before we had reached this stage, there had been a withdrawal from political decisions on any level. It is, as we know, one of Robert Kioroy-Silk’s boasts that his party, Veritas, will tell people the whole truth and nothing but the truth as that is what the British people want and deserve.

They may well deserve it, but I do wonder whether they want it. Do they want to hear that the gap between the people and the political elites is the fault of both? The elites may have lied and refused to listen, but what of the people who have refused to participate? Democratic politics is not a spectator sport.

In my other life, a.k.a. day job, I talk to many people who bemoan the fact that children know nothing about proper food, how it is produced or to be prepared. There are many proposals of compulsory lessons, projects, all sorts of enterprises in schools. The sad truth is that by the time children go to school it is too late – they must learn about food and about most other things at home. Schools are there to provide education not life skills and they do not really do either.

Politics is really about all decisions that have some application outside one’s immediate life. It is not just about government, though that is an important part of it. It is, to a very great extent, about the limitation of government, the idea of private life within a public sphere.

Politics has to be about participation in the various structures and processes; it has to be about immediate and far-reaching decisions and it has to be about taking charge of one’s life.

I have already expressed the view that Veritas could start by proclaiming that they want to see a free people in a free country. I hope they will take this idea on board and abandon the bar-room politics they indulge in at the moment, as that is simply another step towards identity politics. And despite various rather dismissive comments about it, I do think that there will be a response to that slogan.

If I am wrong, and there is no response, then we may as well stop complaining and retreat into endless discussions of identity politics, for we are not to be trusted with the real thing.

Rigging the question?

According to The Business today, the government’s choice of question for the EU constitution referendum has delivered a 28-point swing to the "yes" camp, precipitating – we are told – a "major row", despite the phrasing receiving generally favourable comment when it was published just over a week ago.

The finding apparently derives from two parallel ICM opinion polls – the detailed results of which are to be published tomorrow - which show a marked difference in response to the EU constitution, depending on the question asked.

The poll using the governments phrasing has found support and opposition to the constitution level-pegged at 39 percent each. But a second ICM poll conducted at the same time found that using a slightly different wording gave a 54-26 percent lead to the "no" side.

The governments question is: Should the UK approve the treaty establishing a constitution for the European Union? The other ICM question was: If there were a referendum tomorrow, would you vote for Britain to sign up to the EU Constitution or not?

It is suggested by some (unnamed) critics that the government's question favours a "yes" vote because it only asks voters whether they approve rather than whether they should approve or not approve. And it also implies that the constitution would only apply to remote European Union institutions, rather than to Europe including Britain.

The Business cites Neil O'Brien, of the "Vote No" campaign, saying that the government's question is intended to frame the debate and to reinforce the governments claim that the constitution will limit the powers of the EU.

Meanwhile, Ian Davidson, the Labour MP for Glasgow Pollok, has tabled 13 parliamentary questions to discover whether the government conducted polling research to ensure its question was phrased for maximum political gain.

Whether the ICM polls can be trusted, however, remains to be seen, especially after last week's rogue ICM poll which put the split at 39-41 percent in favour of approving the constitution.

One cannot help feeling that this is something of an ersatz row, with the "Yes-noes" getting excited about something of very little importance. At the moment, the bulk of the public has not engaged on the issue and, by the time the referendum campaign is fully underway, it will be better understood and wording variations may make little if any difference.

Nevertheless, the Electoral Commission is taking some flak for allowing the government's question, after admitting it is inaccurate. The commission had stressed that it was important to refer to the name of the treaty in the referendum question, yet the proposed question is a modification of the treaty title, rather than the exact title, which is a Treaty Establishing a Constitution for Europe.

The system did not fail

In the wake of the Volcker report on the UN oil-for-food scandal, The Sunday Telegraph has no less than three pieces today – a full page "focus" article (which does not appear to be available on-line), a news report and a typically robust comment piece from Mark Steyn.

The story is also covered in The Sunday Times, The Independent on Sunday and The Observer, making it a clean sweep, as far as the "quality" Sundays go.

Turning to the Telegraph "focus" piece first, it is headed: "The scandal that Kofi couldn’t cover up", which just about says it all. No one who has followed this issue has any doubts that, if the UN SecGen could have got away without opening it up to public scrutiny, he would have done so.

The strap line reads: "Evidence of double-dealing in the Iraq oil-for-food programme is stacking up by the week as more and more of the United Nations officials are being implicated", and the article relies in part on a long quote from Nile Gardiner of the Heritage Foundation. His view is:

The UN continues to display breathtaking arrogance with regard to the oil-for-food scandal. The organisation does not seem to recognise the extent to which it has been damaged by this. Five major congressional investigations are looking at the role of Kofi Annan and any of them have the potential to force his resignation.
As if to affirm the UN's arrogance, The Observer weighs in with an incredibly self-regarding piece by Peter Beaumont headed: "The defiant UN starts fightback", clearly aimed at downplaying the whole affair.

Volcker's report, Beaumont writes, does not reveal any systematic corruption. He then suggests that, "It is a sign of the frustration of the UN's right-wing critics that their best response to the investigation is to suggest that, as a supporter of the UN's humanitarian goals through America's UN Association, Volcker is tarnished."

Totally out on his own, Beaumont then argues that, "the ongoing UN investigation - despite five separate congressional probes - seems to have given it a bullish new confidence." He has been talking to Mark Malloch Brown, Annan's new British chief of staff, and from him he "sensed a new sense of resolve that the UN was ready to take the fight back to its detractors."

Discerning something no one else seems to have noticed, he claims that "there is a wider sense in the UN that perhaps the moment of danger from right-wing ideologues in the US who would destroy it has passed … And now, believes Annan, the opportunity is ripe to win back the middle ground of US opinion it feared had turned against it."

Not even the Independent, however, supports this thesis. Its piece is headed: "Annan under fire from UN's former chief", reporting that the SecGen's attempt to deflect criticism over corruption is "undermined by his predecessor."

Former SecGen Boutros Boutros-Ghali, who was ousted after one term as UN chief because of US opposition to him, said he and Mr Annan were both responsible for the "oil-for-food" programme. "I share the responsibility, but don't twist the whole operation," Mr Boutros-Ghali told BBC radio. "I regret the mismanagement and the scandal... [but] the basis [of the programme] was decided by the Security Council, approved by the Security Council and the execution was done during the mandate of my successor."

Significantly, the report concludes, the harshest words were from Congressional members well known for their long-held distaste of the UN. They included Senator Norm Coleman, who even before the report's release was calling for Mr Annan's resignation, and Henry Hyde, a Republican member of the House of Representatives. "I am reluctant to conclude that the UN is damaged beyond repair, but these revelations certainly point in that direction," Mr Hyde said after seeing Volcker’s report.

This is a theme shared by the Sunday Times, which headlines, "Report 'too soft' on Annan", stating that critics of the UN have accused Annan "of shirking responsibility for the gross mismanagement and corruption". They claim that Volcker's panel has been "too soft on the failings of the secretary-general".

Interestingly, and perhaps fatal for Annan, the Sunday Times also reports that the post-war Iraqi government now intends to take legal action against the UN to recover money made illicitly from the oil-for-food programme. Claude Hankes- Drielsma, an adviser to the government, said Annan had to shoulder the blame: "The secretary-general has to be ultimately responsible for the integrity of the organisation. There is significant evidence that he was aware of at least some of the issues but did nothing," he said.

The last words, however, must go to Mark Steyn in The Telegraph, with his piece headed: "Would you trust these men with $64bn of your cash? Of course not". What happened, he writes, was utterly predictable.

If I had $64 billion of my own money, I'd look after it carefully. But give someone $64 billion of other people's money to "process" and it would be surprising if some of it didn't get peeled off en route. Especially if that $64 billion gives you access to a unique supply of specially low-priced oil you can re-sell at market prices.

Hire Third World bureaucrats to supervise the "processing" and you can kiss even more of it goodbye. Grant Saddam Hussein the right of approval over the bank that will run the scheme, and it's clear to all that nit-picky book-keeping will not be an overburdensome problem.
In other words, Steyn concludes, the system didn't fail. "This is the trans-national system, working as it usually works, just a little more so." He goes on:

One of the reasons I'm in favour of small government is because big government tends to be remote government, and remote government is unaccountable, and, as a wannabe world government, the UN is the remotest and most unaccountable of all. If the sentimental utopian blather ever came true and we wound up with one "world government", from an accounting department point of view, the model will be Nigeria rather than New Hampshire.
That is actually the lesson behind the oil-in-food scandal which we have been at pains to highlight. Transnational government is, by its very nature, unaccountable, whether it is the UN or the European Union. It is not the "system" at fault, as such – these organisations are by their very nature prone to corruption and mismanagement and the only remedy is to get rid of them.

Thus Steyn concludes, "the best alternative to the trans-national jet-set is nothing – or at least nothing formal," a sentiment with which we entirely agree. Like us, Steyn also sees the parallel with the tsunami relief effort:

The Americans and Australians had troops and relief supplies on the ground within hours and were coordinating their efforts without any global bureaucracy at all. Imagine that: an unprecedented disaster, and yet robust, efficient, compatible, results-oriented nations managed to accomplish more than the international system specifically set up to manage such events. Would it have helped to elect a steering committee with Sudan and Zimbabwe on it? Of course not."
The UN he wants to sink into irrelevance. Yes, and let it take the other tranzies with it.

Incidentally, if you want to know how the "oil voucher" system – at the heart of the corruption – actually worked, the details are on the Middle East Media Monitoring Research Institute (MEMRI) website.

Booker

In this week’s column, Booker starts with the EU abandoning "the farcical pledge" its leaders gave in Lisbon in 2000 that by 2010 it would have "the most competitive, dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world".

In light of the European Commission's recent admission that regulation is now imposing costs on the EU’s businesses of €1,000 billion a year, it was a wise move, he writes.

This, however, is merely the hors d'oeuvre. The main course is commission president José Barroso promise to remedy this disaster. Says Booker, he might begin by looking at the effects of just two items of EU regulation.

The first he introduces by reference to a report commissioned by the European Fine Art Federation which will confirm that, as from next year, a devastating blow will be struck at Britain’s £4.2 billion a year fine art market, larger than those of all other EU art markets put together, by the so-called droit de suite directive.

Put forward by France and Germany, this directive will in effect impose a tax up to 4 percent on all sales above 3000 euros of works by living artists or those who died less than 70 years previously, the proceeds going to the artists or their heirs.

So much for Britain's "influence" in the EU, this was one directive the UK government vigorously opposed. Even at the time it was going through, it was known that it would drive a huge amount of business out of Britain, which enjoys 25 percent of the world’s art market. Its destination would be mainly to New York and Zurich where droit de suite does not apply.

Then, in 1999, an independent report commissioned by the British government estimated the potential loss of business at £750 million a year, putting at risk up to 8000 jobs.

Now, the new report, from Victor Ginsburgh, a Belgian professor of economics, suggests that the chief beneficiaries of this law will not be living artists, many of whom opposed it, but the estates of a handful of major 20th century painters, such as Picasso and Matisse, which could receive more than 80 percent of the proceeds.

Britain, writes Booker, was outvoted on the directive by countries which already apply droit de suite, in the name of creating "a level playing field". But as Anthony Browne, chairman of the British Art Market Federation, points out "it is no good having a level playing field within the EU, when it will simply pay our clients to sell their paintings in countries outside the EU where droit de suite does not operate".

The chief concession the UK won in its five-year battle to stop the directive was that it will not have to impose the duty on the work of dead artists until 2012 (for living artists, it starts next January).

If Mr Barroso's fine words last week mean anything at all, he could start by looking again at a regulation, the only effect of which will be to export thousands of jobs and hundreds of millions of pounds-worth of business outside the EU.

Booker then moves on to a second, even more damaging EU proposal is the notorious Reach directive (Registration, Evaluation and Authorisation of Chemicals), under which hundreds of thousands of chemical formulations will each have to be tested and authorised at astronomic expense. Across vast swathes of industry, this will drive up costs by billions of pounds.

To illustrate the problem, Booker spoke to fellow Blogger Tim Worstall, an Englishman living in Portugal. He, with partners in Russia and America, runs a business testing and developing the miraculous properties in alloys of scandium, a very light, rare metal, only three tons a year of which are mined, in Kazhakstan. A recent order for Airbus, 2000 kg of a scandium-oxide, aluminium mix worth £80,000, might under Reach cost an additional £100,000 to test and authorise.

For future models of Airbus, the company is experimenting with a scandium-assisted welding process which could reduce the weight of an aircraft by 10 percent. Yet just for welding rods alone, the regulatory costs of the different formulations could be £5 million.

Along with countless other manufacturers who use sophisticated chemical combinations, in industries ranging from plastics to leather, Mr Worstall concludes that the only consequence of Reach in its present form will be to strike a fatal blow at innovation and competitiveness, driving business worth billions of pounds outside the EU.

Concludes Booker, if Mr Barroso and his colleagues really have any conception of how to encourage a "dynamic, knowledge-based economy", here are two places they might start. Otherwise the last businessman to leave the EU should turn out the light (which, under the EU’s plan to derive 40 percent of our energy by 2040 from ‘renewables’, such as wind turbines, will probably happen anyway).

Booker’s second story concerns a foul-up by the Department for Education and Skills over foreign students using English language schools and, for the "three" he has a story on the last mobile bank in Britain. Finally, the "four" takes from a posting we put on the Blog on Thursday about Mark Leonard, the foreign policy director of the Centre for European Reform, who, says Booker, deserves a prize for honesty.

This was for his reference to "Europe's power", where he admitted that: "the British House of Commons, British law courts and British civil servants are still here, but they have become agents of the European Union implementing European law."

Says Booker, I am grateful to see a keen fan of the EU making the point so much more candidly than I would dare do myself. Eurosceptics are hoping our rather less frank Europe minister Denis McShane will have the courage to sign up Mr Leonard as a front-man in the forthcoming debate on the EU’s constitution.

Saturday, February 05, 2005

What is it about Kilroy?

The man excites the most extraordinary passions and I cannot quite understand why. The comments on this blog are enough to make one’s hair stand on end. When one looks at the ridiculously personalized attacks in the media one is lost in admiration: how can one man get so many talentless hacks quite so excited?

When Robert Kilroy-Silk first announced that he was joining UKIP and standing for the European Parliament, a perfectly sensible friend said to me that it is a bad idea as the British people do not really take to people like him.

Excuse me, I pointed out, but he has run an exceedingly popular TV programme for 17 years. If that is a sign of unpopularity and the British people not liking him then I am the Queen of Sheba. (No comments please about that – I am not.)

Is it the fact that the man is successful? There are plenty of successful people around, though not necessarily in politics or, for that matter, journalism. Is it that he refuses to play up to the prevailing trend and never puts on a “cheeky-chappie” persona? Could be.

Is it that he knows his own worth? Well yes, that is a heinous crime in the British media, unless you happen to be a film actor (of either sex) who comes back from Hollywood, tail between legs, to explain that he or she could not cope with tinseltown’s ethos. (More like they didn’t want you, the reader longs to shout, but this rubbish does get written up solemnly.)

Or perhaps it is the insouciance with which he stands up and rubbishes the entire media-political establishment, a view with which many people out in the big bad world are in sympathy– something that denizens of that world cannot admit to.

Coupled with that is the man’s palpable contempt for the hacks. He, let us recall, was a reasonably successful politician who got out because the Labour Party was being taken over by the Militant Tendency, while many of his colleagues knuckled under.

He became a very successful media personality, journalist and businessman, who was dropped by the BBC because of his opinions. His former colleagues, though, knuckle under. When Kilroy rubbishes the journos before him, he makes it clear that he knows what they are up to as he is one of them himself. Unspoken behind that comment, pronounced with Mack the Knife-type geniality is another one: but I am successful and you are not or you would not be here.

Much of this was obvious at that famous launch that everyone has an opinion about. As I watched the third party launch of my life in politics, I could not help noting the differences.

The biggest of these was the presence of representatives of all the biggies in the media. The place was packed with journalists, photographers, cameramen. Alan Sked, who was rather good with the media could not have managed anything like that.

The post-Sked leadership of UKIP mostly receive publicity when they put their foot in it (vide Godfrey Bloom), with the exception of Nigel Farage and his entirely admirable attack on the new Commissioners’ probity. (Even he managed to get things wrong and has not been capable of moving on to another subject.)

But Kilroy did it. The launch of his party was covered by every newspaper, every agency, every TV channel. And they hated it. The man was attacking politicians and their lies but all his listeners knew that the media has been complicit in those lies.

The journos had come to the launch to write two stories: one was about Kilroy’s tan, the other about Kilroy getting tough on immigration, that is, somehow, necessarily a racist policy.

I shall not comment on the tan – I know nothing about it. But I did think it was a bit silly to keep harping on about immigration as if it was still a taboo subject. Somebody asked Kilroy whether he could compare himself with Enoch Powell and whether he thought Powell had been a racist.

One longed to go up to the little chap or chapess and say: “Powell died some years ago. Get over it.” Kilroy did not put it quite like that but informed the questioner that Veritas intended to look forward and not back. He wondered whether he was going to be compared to Genghis Khan. (Actually, that would not be a bad thing. The man was an extremely successful military and political leader.)

Andrew Gimson of the Daily Telegraph thought the comparison with Powell was perfectly reasonable since both men were talking about immigration. Mr Gimson should get out more. An awful lot of people are talking about immigration.

The subject has become a big topic across the whole of Europe. Politicians in the Netherlands, to mention one country, are grappling with the subject and I doubt that any of them have even heard of Enoch Powell.

Then there was Colm Toîbin of the Times who asked if Kilroy had spoken the truth in his entire career. Coming from a journalist that is quite an interesting question. No, he was told, as a Labour spokesman, Kilroy had had to defend all sorts of daft things, like unilateral disarmament. But he was not going to do that again.

The best moment came when a young chap from PA (I think), one who had clearly gone into agency journalism straight out of college, asked if Kilroy had ever had a proper job, that being a prerequisite for being able to talk to ordinary people.

Even a Kilroy hater must rejoice in the answer, which consisted of a devastating put-down about being “unlike you” and running a company that employed “sixty grown-up people”.

Not only was this a silly question from a journalist (what on earth did the lad think a proper job was?) but it was also an example of “sloppy journalism”. If you are sent out on an assignment, you do your homework first. Kilroy’s career is not a secret. Ten minutes on the net would have saved the boy a great deal of embarrassment.

Where does all this knock-about stuff leave Veritas? Its political future is hard to predict, since much depends on circumstances the party and its leader have no control over. For example, what the Conservative Party will do or say in the election campaign.

It is, however, undeniably true that the proportion of people in this country who bother to vote is going down. The reason is clearly not that electors can no longer manage to work out where the polling station is but that they do not think it is worth their while to put a cross on that piece of paper. Much of that stems from a confused and imprecise but, nevertheless, accurate understanding that the people we elect are not the ones who legislate.

The gap between the people and the political elite in this country has not been this wide for a very long time and there probably is place for another party somewhere in there.

The question is what is the party stands for. The notion that you can campaign on something called British values is silly. What are they? Fox-hunting? Fish and chips? Going to bingo? Getting drunk on Fridays and Saturdays? Tending to your garden? Doing DIY? Warm beer and bad food? Ice-cold lager and somewhat better food? Who knows.

The main problem, it seems to me, is the basic notion of “listening to the people”. Of course, politicians ought to have some idea of what it is people want, but forming policies on that basis and nothing else gives you a bar-room manifesto. Some basic political ideas must be present as well. In fact, that is the problem with the main parties as far as most voters are concerned – they have no ideas and no convictions.

If Veritas is to survive and thrive, it must come up with a notion of what sort of country it would like to see. Yes, we want to get out of the euro-mess. But what do we do afterwards?

Without imitating or stealing their clothes, Veritas could look at the newly announced Conservative fisheries policy, that tries to answer that very question. Then do what the Tories seem unable to do and look at other topics in the same way.

Perhaps, a good starting point would be that we want to see a free people in a free country; a people who are self-reliant in a country that takes its place proudly in the world.

Of course, one has to accept that the journos will not write about it. But we, in the blogosphere, shall.

Au revoir

It is with sadness that we record the passing of the great Diplomad who has hung up his Blog and moved on to pastures new.

For a variety of personal and professional reasons, he tells us, it's time to stop But, lest any of you think so, he assures us, "we have not been threatened or shut down; the State Department goons are not knocking at the door. It's just time to do something else."

It is a testament to the site that it got more comments than most Blogs get hits, and even these were part of the entertainment – where even the great Diplomad was not immune from criticism. Most recently, he attracted ire from his post when he described watching Bush's "state of the union" speech, remarking:

It's quite an experience sitting in front of a large screen TV in a foreign land surrounded by foreigners - many of them not friendlies - listening to the President of United States speak.
Not a few leapt on the man, telling him that since he was abroad, it was he that was the foreigner, not those who surrounded him. However, we were glad on this occasion to come to the rescue, with the following comment:

Look - we Brits settled this "foreigner question" centuries ago. There are Brits, and there are foreigners, right. Foreigners are people who are not Brits. As our cousins, in kind, we are happy that the Yanks should be honorary Brits when they are abroad, and therefore they are not foreigners either - everybody else is, except Brits of course, but then you knew that. Simple really.
We will miss Diplomad and wish him well. He is leaving the site up so that the archives can be visited. Those who have not yet looked at it can still capture the essence of a rare and valuable narrative.

Ducking the issues

Commemorating the visit of US secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice, to London, three out of four of the "quality" papers today offer leaders which pick up on Iran and the lifting of the EU's arms embargo on China

The Independent (subscription only), for instance, in a leader that asks: "Will Britain be caught in the middle once again?", focuses on Iraq, but also notes that, looming on the horizon are differences that could prove no less divisive than Iraq. Iran's nuclear ambition is one; another is the EU's determination to lift its arms embargo on China.

This newspaper also correctly notes that, on both these issues, Blair has lined up with Europe but it then goes on to suggest that the danger is that, once again, it will be Britain's fate to be caught in the middle.

The Times, on the other hand, with its leader headed: "Behind the smiles" actually offers the strap: "The EU, the US, Iran and the arms embargo on China".

It dismisses any idea that the US is about to launch a war against Iran – which in fact has never been suggested by the US – and considers it unfair to pretend that it is not in dialogue with EU political leaders. Then it moves to the China situation, archly noting that: "a number of large EU nations, notably France, have identified a lucrative export market for their weapons."

It is entirely possible, says The Times,

...that removing the arms embargo would have limited consequences. The issue is, nevertheless, viewed differently in Washington, not only by the Administration but Congress and not just by conservative Republicans but also liberal Democrats. The probably slim chance that US troops defending Taiwan might be attacked by an army which had acquired its arms from the EU fills policymakers in America with horror. It would be sensible for Europe, led by Britain, to recognise this fear and avoid a course which the US considers a threat to its security. If not, then Dr Rice's tours of Europe will be become rarer and less friendly.
Then we come to The Daily Telegraph, which sees Condoleezza Rice bringing morality to realpolitik, arguing that having spent 10 years trying to talk the mullahs out of their nuclear ambitions, the Europeans are belatedly coming round to the US case for a tougher line against Teheran. Then it too notes that: "A major row looms... over China," stating:

The EU's desire to lift its arms embargo on Beijing is not simply of symbolic importance. China wants weapons in order to use them. Almost every contiguous state has, at one time or another, felt the force of Chinese expansionism: Korea, Russia, Mongolia, Tibet, India and Vietnam.

The current target of its aggression, Taiwan, is defended by US warships, and Washington is understandably furious at the prospect of its sailors facing weapons made in Europe. Yet, even here, it is possible that at least some Europeans will be won round by Miss Rice's moral case. China, after all, still has a totalitarian regime. The idealistic activists who marched in European cities against Tiananmen and the despoliation of Tibet may yet find themselves carrying the Stars and Stripes.
So what are we to make of all this? Given the underlying sympathies of the Independent for "the project", one must assume that this newspaper wants Blair to stand firm alongside the "Europeans". The Times, though, suggests that the fair Condoleezza will be wielding a handbag of Thatcherite proportions if it does, and The Telegraph suggests that those self-same Europeans may come round to the American way of thinking.

Small wonder that, if three of the country’s leading newspapers are offering totally different "takes" on this complex situation, the British public remains confused – and so often disinterested. But it would be nice if all three addressed the reality of the China situation. And there are three issues which need to be considered.

Firstly, EU foreign policy on China is being driven by France, with the support of German, which are pursuing their own commercial interests – i.e., weapons sales - heedless of the protests of the United States which has genuine strategic interests on containing Chinese arms technology.

Secondly, the Labour government, having originally resisted the call to lift the embargo, now supports France and Germany, mainly – we are told – for domestic political reasons, as means of demonstrating to its anti-war left that Blair is not Bush’s poodle.

Finally – barring a miracle - whatever the US says, the EU is not going to be diverted from its paths, and is going to desist in its plans to lift the embargo.

The questions, therefore, that these newspapers should be addressing – as should we all – is whether Blair is going to continue down the EU road of supporting the lifting of the embargo and, if he does, how is he going to handle the inevitable backlash from the US? As it stands, however, they seem to be ducking the issues.

Appeasement revisited

It seems a tad ironic that we should have to go to the Pakistan Daily Times to read a condemnation of the EU’s attitude towards dictators,

But there you are, in today’s issue we read an article called "Appeasement revisited" by Václav Havel, former president of the Czech Republic.

He is railing against the decision, instigated by socialist Prime Minister José Zapatero of Spain, whereby EU member state embassies in Havana have acceded to the wishes of Fidel Castro to vet their guest lists, excluding any dissidents.

"I cannot recall," writes Havel," any occasion at that time when the West or any of its organisations (NATO, the European Community, etc) issued some public appeal, recommendation, or edict stating that some specific group of independently-minded people — however defined — were not to be invited to diplomatic parties, celebrations, or receptions." He continues:

But today this is happening. One of the strongest and most powerful democratic institutions in the world — the European Union — has no qualms in making a public promise to the Cuban dictatorship that it will re-institute diplomatic apartheid.

I can hardly think of a better way for the EU to dishonour the noble ideals of freedom, equality, and human rights that the Union espouses — indeed, principles that it reiterates in its constitutional agreement. To protect European corporations’ profits from their Havana hotels, the Union will cease inviting open-minded people to EU embassies, and we will deduce who they are from the expression on the face of the dictator and his associates. It is hard to imagine a more shameful deal.

Today, the EU is dancing to Fidel’s tune. That means that tomorrow it could bid for contracts to build missile bases on the coast of the People’s Republic of China. The following day it could allow its decisions on Chechnya to be dictated by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s advisers. Then, for some unknown reason, it could make its assistance to Africa conditional on fraternal ties with the worst African dictators.

Where will it end? The release of Milosevic? Denying a visa to Russian human rights activist Sergey Kovalyov? An apology to Saddam Hussein? The opening of peace talks with Al Qaida?

It is suicidal for the EU to draw on Europe’s worst political traditions, the common denominator of which is the idea that evil must be appeased and that the best way to achieve peace is through indifference to the freedom of others. Just the opposite is true: such policies expose an indifference to one’s own freedom and pave the way for war. After all, Europe is uniting in order to defend its freedom and values, not to sacrifice them to the ideal of harmonious coexistence with dictators and thus risk gradual infiltration of its soul by the anti-democratic mindset.
One must admire Havel, for his optimism if nothing else. But where does he get the idea that "one of the strongest and most powerful democratic institutions in the world" is the European Union?

Friday, February 04, 2005

Chutzpah may not be a French word but ....

… President Chirac has it in spades. First, he explained to various African leaders and ministers that the EU with its agricultural policies was their best friend. That took some doing but l’empereur Jacques was the man to do it.

Mind you, he forgot all about the subsidies European, particularly French, farmers receive, the still ongoing export subsidies, the anti-dumping regulations – no, hang on, he remembered those only to dismiss them with a typically French shrug.

"The world's largest (agricultural) producers are trafficking in bad faith, with their often-unfounded accusations of commercial dumping and claims that there are markets closed to their products."
It is truly unfortunate that the Africans present at the meeting in Senegal did not seem to believe him either. Perhaps, they, too, were trafficking in bad faith. I mean, why should they recall all the many environmental and other regulations that are imposed quite unnecessarily on their produce?

Why cannot they simply forget about the export and other subsidies? That would show the proper spirit towards the country that, as the BBC World Service website puts it:
“… has long tried to portray itself as Africa’s voice in the world.”
Anyone who wants to work out what is wrong with Africa could start with that. Its self-appointed voice is the country that opposes all attempts to create free trade agreements with Third World countries, supports and arms gangs like the Hutu militias in Rwanda and invades countries that used to be their colony, like the Ivory Coast, not to mention insisting that bloodthirsty and kleptomaniac dictators like Robert Mugabe be invited and feted at international gatherings.

Then President Chirac, continuing in his imperial vein, informed President Thado Mbeki that if he wanted to broker a peace in Côte d’Ivoire, he should “understand the soul of West Africa”.

It is reasonable to suggest that the President of South Africa may not know everything or understand everything about a West African country. In fact, he may know very little. It is a common western misapprehension to lump all Africans together. But, somehow, I do not think that is what l’empereur meant.

After all, the suggestion that the French or their president somehow understand the soul of West Africa is even more preposterous, even though we are talking about a largely Francophone country.

That is, of course, what bothers M Chirac as it did his predecessor, l’empereur François Mitterand. Africa, too is becoming more Anglophone and France has been at pains to try to stem that process. (So much for a common European identity.) This has involved some very unpleasant episodes, such as the support for the Hutu militias and now the intervention in the Ivory Coast.

But, as President Chirac told Radio France Internationale:
"And I would really like President Mbeki - whose process, I repeat, we do support - to immerse himself in West Africa so as to understand the mentality and the soul of West Africa, because in times of crisis, you have to really know people's mentalities and what is in people's souls."
Chirac left the Senegal summit on sustainable agriculture early in order to go to another summit in Brazzaville where he was going to discuss with seven Congo Basin leaders the best use of forestry resources while safeguarding the environment. Not, presumably, referring too much to various aspects of French involvement in the war in the other Congo, that cannot possibly do much for the environment or forestry resources.

We can but hope that the French taxpayers think this is all a good way of spending their money.

The perils of symbolism

[Health warning: parts of this posting may upset some of our readers.]

There seems to be a certain amount of excitement around because of calls to ban totalitarian symbols in the EU. I cannot understand why this should be so. Surely it was clear that whatever else may happen after the accession of the post-Communist states, attitudes towards Nazism and Communism will never be the same.

If the previous EU Justice Commissioner had had any sense at all and if the banning of Nazi symbols really did appear to be the most important thing the EU needed to do, then it would have been done before May 1, 2004.

It all comes from not knowing any history and not realizing that the twentieth century was very different in one half of the Continent from that in the other. It also comes from the vaguely left-leaning aspect of the “project” and the reluctance to come to grips with the horrors of Communism, which is responsible for something like 100 million deaths world-wide.

One of the things I have complained about vociferously is that Communist propaganda is viewed as “art” while Nazi propaganda is reviled. As a consequence, one can see any number of Soviet and Chinese posters, photographs, films. Indeed, the imagery is still used in advertising and is seen as being rather cool. Similar Fascist and Nazi works are exhibited, if at all, with endless shuddering commentaries. Their use in modern life is greeted with horror.

Interestingly, there is one exhibition in London at the moment that has broken through that barrier. An otherwise so-so event at the Whitechapel Art Gallery, entitled Faces in the Crowd, has an interesting selection of early Soviet posters and photographs by the extremely talented Alexander Rodchenko.

Unusually, these are exhibited next to a collection of Nazi propaganda photographs and some rather untalented snaps by the egregious Tina Modotti, supposedly a great emblem of Latin American and feminist art.

The conclusion becomes inescapable: there is next to no difference between the Soviet and the Nazi stuff and the Modotti photographs can be seen as second-rate imitations of either.

(Incidentally, there are also some fascinating and more than a little ambivalent photographs by the great Cartier-Bresson and almost as great Robert Capa of the vengeance wreaked in the immediate aftermath of the liberation of western Europe. I fear that the French peasantry and bourgeoisie do not come out as well as they would like to.)

One cannot help musing about the subject as the EU in its wisdom is pushing through legislation that would ban Nazi symbols like the swastika and … um … the swastika. Well, there must be other things and they cannot really mean the swastika because turned the other way it is an ancient Hindu symbol and, in any case, how on earth they are going to police this nonsense, but hey, a ban is ban.

Setting aside the difficulties such as what do you do with model tanks and aeroplanes, there is, unfortunately for EU Justice Commissar Franco Frattini, the question of the other totalitarian system that bedevilled twentieth century history and is not yet over.

This problem has come out into the open through statements by Czech, Hungarian, Estonian and Lithuanian MEPs, all of them representing countries that have suffered both from Nazism and Communism.

They have made it quite clear that they do not really want to ban anything but they do want a clear and coherent analysis of the past. Neither Nazism nor Communism should be written out of the history books; they should be discussed and assessed together with the after-effects.

Therein lies the rub. The EU, as Hungarian MEP Thomas Szájer has pointed out, is exceptionally nice to existing left-wing totalitarian dictators. (It is exceptionally nice to most dictators but let’s not split hairs.) He pointed to the recent recognition of Cuba, one of the last bastions of old-fashioned Communism. He could equally point to the EU’s anxiety to get the good will of the Chinese Communist leadership at no matter what cost.

Above all, it does not want to go into the details of what sort of horrors the Communist system inflicted on its unfortunate victims.

(By the way, did all those officials and politicians who went on the jolly to Auschwitz and gawped at the place where millions suffered and died know what happened to it after its liberation? Did they know that it was used by the Soviet secret police? Did they know that the same Soviet secret police took over the Gestapo headquarters in all the “liberated” east European cities and used the buildings, the interrogation rooms, the prisons, the torture chambers and the lists of people to be arrested? No, I thought not.)

It seems that the swastika is not to be discussed in the same breath as the hammer and sickle or the red star. Well, you can’t really, with all those western Communists in the European Parliament. It is to be discussed entirely within the framework of xenophobia and racism.

Presumably Stalin’s own pogrom of the Jews in the early fifties does not count, as that was carried out in the name of … well, something else. It was as murderous as the Holocaust.

What is so ironic about this obsession with Nazi symbols to the point of forgetting why it is that they are hateful, is the continuing growth of anti-Semitic attacks in many of the member states and the frenzied hysteria of the left-wing hatred for Israel, that has transgressed pure dislike of a particular government or policy.

When academics start banning Israeli colleagues from conferences or publications; when Franco-German art programmes talk of the Holocaust being the fault of the western allies because they did not act fast enough; when Jewish schools are attacked, Jewish cemeteries are desecrated and synagogues need police protection while the left-wing media solemnly intones that it is all the fault of the nasty Israelis; then you have gone beyond the symbols. Banning them will not help.

And the roots of the problem are the ones defined by those Central European MEPs, whose understanding of the real European history is more profound than that of their spoilt and posturing western colleagues.

As they explained to the journalists of EUObserver:

“Asked whether it is right to compare a Nazi symbol such as a swastika, used by a regime promoting racial hatred and anti-Semitism, with the hammer and sickle of Communism used by a regime promoting social hatred, the MEPs insisted there should be no distinction.”
In other words, neither should be banned and free speech should be preserved. Otherwise, the totalitarians would have won.

It has been noted that until the post-Communist states (or not so far post-Communist ones like most of the former Soviet republics, including, alas, Russia) face up to the truth of their past and its consequences, they will not be able to move forward.

The same, it seems, applies to Europe as a whole. The most recent past includes two monstrous regimes. We must face up to the truth of both of them and we must overcome their heritage with freedom. Otherwise, we are lost.

Gib on the agenda again

Tiresome lot, the Spanish government. I suppose they cannot stop people from demonstrating against democracy in Arab countries; nor can they really do anything very much about the same (and many other) people’s indifference to their own democracy. But must they really go on about Gibraltar?

Presumably, it is all part of the same problem – a dislike of democratic popular opinion. Election in Iraq is a bad idea and a clear expression of popular feeling through several referendums in Gibraltar is also a bad idea. Well, they ought to be pleased with the projected turn-out for the referendum on the coming Constitution for Europe.

Right now, they are upset because the nuclear submarine HMS Sceptre has docked in the south of the island for repairs. The Spanish Foreign Minister has peevishly announced that his government had asked for no more British nuclear submarines to dock in Gibraltar for repairs or any purpose.

No doubt, this is called behaving like a good European.

Actually, not all is lost, because as the aforementioned Foreign Minister, Miguel Angel Moratinos, has explained, the break-down is not in the nuclear system but in the diesel engine’s cooling systems, having somewhat belatedly remembered that it is possible environmental pollution he is supposed to be complaining about, a non-issue as he himself acknowledged.

It did not take him long to get back to the subject that was really bothering him:

"We have asked that no more nuclear submarines be given repairs for this kind of breakdown in future, whatever their nature or scale, and for us in future to be able to restore calm in our co-operation with the United Kingdom, which we want to be as fruitful as possible."
How nice. What sort of fruit would that be?

Chirac nervous on referendum

Despite his confidence over the outcome of French EU constitution referendum vote, Chirac is not getting it all his own way.

According to a report by AFP today, the country's largest trade union defied its leadership to recommend a no vote in the national referendum later this year. This was the General Labour Confederation (CGT), which was until recently linked to the Communist Party (PC).

It voted overwhelmingly in its 120-member national committee to reject the constitution on the grounds that it will entrench free-market economics at the expense of "social priorities."

AFP reports that the decision, which was against the wishes of CGT secretary-general Bernard Thibault, came amid signs that a significant part of the French left is prepared to ignore the advice of its hierarchy and vote against the text when it is put to the people probably in June.

And, despite an internal ballot in favour of the treaty in December last year, the main opposition Socialist Party (PS) remains deeply divided - with 56 deputies out of 140 defying party leader Francois Hollande this week to abstain in a National Assembly debate on the issue.

With a recent wave of street protests indicating high levels of popular discontent in France, Chirac is now worrying that a tide of feeling against the constitution will overturn the "yes" vote currently predicted in the opinion polls.

In the 1992 referendum on the Maastricht treaty that paved the way to the EU's single currency, a strong early lead by supporters was whittled away to a razor-thin majority as voters used the opportunity to express unhappiness with then-president Francois Mitterrand.

Then, the first round of France's 2002 presidential election - in which nearly one in three voters chose candidates of the far-right or far-left - remains a warning of how easily the public can swing out of the political mainstream.

Many left-wing voters who reluctantly backed Chirac in round two of that election in order to defeat far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen feel it will be a humiliation too far to hand him another victory in the referendum on the constitution. the view is that they are not prepared to bail out l'escroc once again.

"There is a real danger that popular anger will lead a majority to reject the constitution in a sheer protest vote," the left-wing Liberation newspaper said in an editorial today.

Support for the constitutional treaty comes from Chirac's ruling Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) party, its ally the Union for French Democracy and the opposition Greens - assuring a clear majority in parliament.

Of the parliamentary parties, only the Communists formally oppose the treaty. Describing the CGT vote as "tremendous," party secretary Marie-George Buffet called on "workers to mobilise to ensure the failure of liberal policies and to use the referendum to demand different policies for France and Europe."

Also opposing the constitution is Le Pen's National Front as well as sovereignty advocates such as Philippe de Villiers on the right and former interior minister Jean-Pierre Chevenement on the left.

Can the referendum be won?

A "yes" campaign perspective

In a paper shortly to be published in Nowa Europa (European Center Natolin in Warsaw), Kirsty Hughes, Associate Fellow, Birkbeck College, and Visiting Fellow, European Institute, London School of Economics, rehearses the background to the EU constitution and assesses whether it is possible for the "yes" campaign to win the referendum.

In 24 close-typed pages (available here), Hughes - as befits her Europhile background – believes a "yes" vote can be secured, but she does not exactly exude optimism. Rather, she says, "the answer has to be that a 'yes' vote can be achieved", a phrasing that suggests desperation rather than confidence.

At the start of 2005, she writes, the "no" side looks confident, active and relatively well organised, while the "yes" side appears "to be in a certain disarray." It has yet to decide how strongly it wants to make the argument that a "no" vote is essentially a vote about staying in or leaving the EU and it has "no precise or agreed set of arguments".

Furthermore, the government is too keen to accept the sceptics' ground, with the campaign hampered by its determination to keep Europe off the political agenda until after the general election.

The ill-worked out and underfunded strategy by the "yes" side, she writes, does not look like a successful way to mount a sustained and far-reaching campaign to counter the scepticism, nationalism and ignorance that has pervaded the British EU debate for so many years.

In order to win, she then asserts, "the arguments for Europe need to start now" with "a major, sustained, determined and confident plan of action".

The problem, she sees, is that there is "little understanding or factual discussion of what the EU does, how it does it and what the benefits have been, or could be argued to be, let alone of what it might or could do in the future."

That ignorance gives the "yes" side the chance to change opinion in part through getting out the facts of how the EU actually operates. But, she concedes, it also presents a major hurdle as the "no" side can exploit the public’s ignorance to present falsehoods.

Nevertheless, she is pessimistic about the government or the main "yes" campaign making a positive, upbeat dynamic case for the achievements of the EU. Thus, the chances of winning the referendum with only a defensive line on what the constitution does, together with some more or less explicitly made argument that a "no" vote could leave the UK on the sidelines or out of the EU altogether, "look slight." She continues:

If the government… aims to deny or ignore the political nature of the EU, the shared sovereignty it contains, the desire of many member states for more political integration… or even the fact that the constitution is not the end of the process but may well be changed again in ten years or so, then not only will this be contested by the "no" side but also by many on the UK "yes" side and by comments and campaigns elsewhere in the EU.
Furthermore, she adds, playing to public fears, such as loss of sovereignty, by insisting on the EU as a pure union of member states is not accurate and will backfire:

Presenting the EU as if it were a purely "European UN" type of body with governments cooperating voluntarily where they choose, with no acknowledgement or explanation for example of the vital – and quasi-governmental – powers of the Commission and its sole right of initiative in putting draft laws forward to the member states in the Council – is misleading and so inevitably unhelpful.
The answer, according to Hughes, is that the EU needs to be presented as a modern, progressive force in the world, a broad success story – promoting peace, prosperity and democracy, and a tool for positive, collaborative action on joint international challenges in the future.

With that, "a strong confident lead from all government ministers and from all pro-European backbench MPs – talking about Europe in positive, confident terms" could start to transform the situation.

If Labour started to do this, the Liberal-Democrats and pro-European Tories would have some clear reasons to follow suit. Thus, the "yes" side must not only inform – it needs to enthuse, to inspire, to persuade and to engage people. This cannot be done on the basis of defensive arguments about the limits to EU powers.

For all this to happen, she argues, would require a sea-change in UK politics. It would require the government to move strongly onto the front foot and away from its defensive "us versus them" EU arguments. "Without such a sea-change", she adds, "the prospects for a 'yes' are slight."

Altogether, if this paper is to be taken as a guide, the "yes" side is extremely pessimistic. But, as they say, the game is not over until the fat lady sings. And, in the paper also are some of the song sheets she will use. It is worth a read.

Lunatics taking over...

There must be a better cliché than "chickens coming home to roost", which is in danger of being over-used, even by this Blog. But if there is a more apt cliché to describe the situation arising from Spain’s decision to offer amnesty to its 800,000 illegal immigrants, I would like to know it.

Without dwelling on the vexed issue of whether immigration is good or bad, the facts are that, from 7 February, the Spanish government is to allow any foreign national who can show that they have a job contract and has lived in the country for more than six months to obtain legal residency.

The amnesty is expected to benefit between 800,000 and one million immigrants who work in the underground economy - about six percent of the labour force – largely originating from Africa and developing countries.

What may be a liberal and humane policy for Spain, however, has, in the words of Otto Schily, the German interior minister, "consequences for the rest of Europe". This is because, once granted official residency status in Spain, immigrants will then, under the EU treaty rules, acquire rights of "freedom of movement" throughout the rest of the member states.

Thus, what previously would have been an internal decision for Spain now affects the rest of the EU, by virtue of the "open border" policy of the Community.

The move is reported to have been met with alarm in other European capitals, fed by reports of bus-loads of foreign nationals amassing at Spanish borders. Spain is seen as an easy target for migrants, mainly Muslims, coming largely from Africa, who last year made up one third of net migration into the EU as a whole.

Police on the Spanish border with France say they are turning back bus loads of Romanians and Bulgarians every day. "They all have fake addresses in Spain, dated back six months, and they are coming in search of jobs," say the police, who last month turned back 10,000 suspected immigrants trying to cross the Pyrénées.

Now, of course, the pressure builds for further strengthening the EU's common asylum and immigration policy, so that issues like this can be tackled, reducing still further the ability of nation states to control their own policies.

But since the problem was created in the first instance by the breaking down of national border controls, perhaps "chickens coming home to roost" is not the appropriate cliché. How about, "the lunatics have taken over the asylum... policy".

News of an interesting new book

June Press has brought out a new book, called The Missing Heart of Europe. It was written by a typical xenophobic, little Englander, know-nothing eurosceptic.

Thomas Kremer was born and brought up in Transylvania and was deported to Bergen Belsen by the Nazis. Unlike all those ministers and worthies who travelled to Auschwitz last week in great comfort and used a public sponsored jolly to gawp at a place where millions suffered and died in unspeakable conditions, he really does know the evil of that regime.

Subsequently, he escaped to Switzerland, went to the Palestine, lived and worked on a kibbutz, fought in Israel’s War of Independence and came to Britain to study. He also studied at the Sorbonne, has lived and worked on the Continent and is an inventor, particularly of various toys and games.

He invented game-based therapy for psychologically disturbed children. (He also seems to have invented the Rubik’s Cube, which wipes out all his achievements in my opinion.) Still, a typical eurosceptic.

I shall write in greater detail about his book, when I have finished it. Right now I want to quote just one paragraph:

“The overt intention of Greater Europe idealists is to reconcile peoples and protect citizens. Yet every integrationist move to extend and strengthen central authority over the continent erodes the independence of nations and curtails the freedom of the individual. It cannot be otherwise. You cannot win hearts by torrents of restrictive legislation, by removing effective elective powers, by setting up manifold layers of controls, each one ever more remote.

You do not gain the long-term support of people by high-level political machinations, by setting up central bodies, by creating currencies, writing constitutions, squabbling over subsidies, scrambling for the top job.

Every addition and modification to existing treaties provides further opportunities for national conflict. Every piece of new legislation adds to the burden of an already over-regulated society. Every congress of political leaders, be it summit, convention, bi-lateral or multi-lateral horse-trading session, merely helps to foster hostility in the common man towards the existing European Union.”
Can’t say fairer than that, can one.

Banning history

No you cannot ban the swastika and the hammer and sickle and you are mad for even thinking about it – but then what else do you expect from MEPs who are, at this moment, clamouring for just such a ban?

For sure, the symbols are offensive to some – although it depends on the context. As a lad, I had a large collection of scale model aircraft, including a replica of a Ju 87 and an He 111 in Luftwaffe colours, both bearing tail-fin swastikas.

Living in a largely Jewish neighbourhood, my Christian parents were mortified, fearing that we might offend our neighbours, not a few of whom had been in concentration camps. But it was those neighbours who prevailed upon my parents not to order me to destroy the models, recognising them for what they were, and glad even that the symbol was remembered for what it was.

Incidentally, I also had a number of Soviet aircraft, bearing the hammer and sickle mark. What is the EU going to do – ban small boys from making model aircraft, or sanitise the kits so they no longer bear the symbols appropriate to the model? Are we to burn books on the Battle of Britain showing pictures of Me 109s flying over England?

As the Jewish friends of my parents pointed out, context is everything. So you can under specified circumstances, criminalise the act of giving offence, but to ban the symbols that might, in a very few of those cases be deliberately used to cause offence, is to take us down a dangerous path. It is, in effect, banning history.

Any sensible person would recognise this, and the nonsense uttered by a group of "centre-right MEPs" in their approach to EU justice and home affairs commissioner Franco Frattini would, in a saner world, be given short-shrift.

When Jozsef Szajer, a Hungarian MEP, added his voice to the fray, saying that, "We would like to have an equal treatment of the other evil totalitarian regime of the communist system," and Czech MEP Jan Zahradil agreed, saying that: "If we decide to ban one, we should decide to ban all of them," we know the world is teetering on the brink.

And when the 25 justice ministers of the EU member states are now set to debate a possible EU ban on Nazi symbols on 24 February, the world – or "Europe" - has possibly gone over the edge.

A glimmer of sense returns, however, with EU commission officials stating that restrictions under a EU legal framework to fight racism will not be a blanket ban. Proposals, they say, are likely to extend measures against inciting racial hatred, such as distributing inflammatory leaflets, to include symbols such as the swastika.

But this should not in any event be a matter for the EU – it is none of its business. This is a matter for member states, each of whom have their own histories to deal with and their own sensibilities.

And talking of sensibilities, have these MEPs – to say nothing of the commission – any idea of how offensive many of us find that ghastly blue flag with a yellow ring of stars? No, I am not equating it with the swastika or the hammer and sickle. There is no comparison. But I still find it offensive, to the point of loathing it, a feeling shared by many.

Thus, if there is to be madness, let it be complete. Taking a cue from Czech MEP Jan Zahradil, who says that if we ban one, we ban them all, let us also ban the ring of stars. Now that is an EU measure I would support.

Thursday, February 03, 2005

From the horse's mouth

In the current edition of the Centre of European Reform Bulletin, is a paper written by its director of foreign policy, Mark Leonard.

Entitled, Europe’s transformative power, Leonard offers us these priceless gems:

Europe's power is easy to miss. Like an 'invisible hand', it operates through the shell of traditional political structures. The British House of Commons, British law courts, and British civil servants are still here, but they have all become agents of the European Union implementing European law. This is no accident. By creating common standards that are implemented through national institutions, Europe can take over countries without necessarily becoming a target for hostility.
In the same paper, he later states:

Europe's obsession with legal frameworks means that it transforms the countries it comes into contact with, instead of just skimming the surface. The US may have changed the regime in Afghanistan, but Europe is changing all of Polish society, from its economic policies and property laws to its treatment of minorities and what gets served on the nation's tables. The lonely superpower can bribe, bully, or impose its will almost anywhere in the world, but when its back is turned, its potency wanes. In contrast, the strength of the EU is broad and deep: once sucked into its sphere, countries are changed forever.
There it is, from this unimpeachable Europhile source. Take the remarkably frank admission: "The British House of Commons, British law courts, and British civil servants are still here, but they have all become agents of the European Union". Now read this.

And what of the assertion: "once sucked into its sphere, countries are changed forever"? When I wrote about the "Borg" in a previous posting, was I so far off the mark?

Now do you see why we have to say "no" to the EU constitution?

Explanation – or propaganda?

With last week's publication of the European Union Bill, which sets up the process for ratification of the EU constitution and the arrangements for the referendum now comes the "explanatory notes", produced by the Foreign and Commonwealth Office.

These are effectively a guide to MPs, explaining the detail of the Bill. They have been prepared, the introduction claims, "to assist the reader of the Bill and to help inform debate on it."

The use of the word "inform", however, implies a neutral summary of the provisions, yet this is very far from the case. Using taxpayer's money to address our own legislature, the FCO simply could not resist the opportunity of spreading its own propaganda.

This is most evident in a summary of the "background" to the Bill, where it summarises the EU constitution in a way that can best be described as "heavily slanted" – not only because of what it does say, but for what it does not.

Offering 12 "bullet points" on the "key changes" made by the constitution to the existing treaties, the first is "a clearer definition of the powers of the European Union".

Apparently uncontentious, this is actually one of the changes cited as an advantage of the constitution, and a reason for approving it – so you can see immediately where the FCO is coming from.

But it is, in fact, a non-issue. Apart from putting all the provisions of the treaties in once cover, there is no more or less clarity in this treaty than in the others. The definitions (and limits) of power were always clearly set out in previous treaties – for those who could understand the jargon - and they are no more or less so in the constitution.

The key factor though is why the FCO should wish its readers to consider this an advantage – which it clearly them to. Imagine a vicious, totalitarian government that had its powers codified, but spread throughout a series of documents. Would setting out all its powers in one document make it any less vicious or totalitarian? So where is the advantage of defining powers more clearly, if nothing fundamental changes?

The next "bullet point" notes that the constitution includes "a provision stating that the EU may only act within the limits of the powers conferred on it by the treaty". But that has always been the case – the European Union is a treaty structure and owes everything to the provisions of the treaties. Nothing has changed.

However, what the document does not say is that some of the powers conferred are pretty vague – and intentionally so – and that where a dispute arises as to where exactly the power should lie, this is decided not by the member states but by the EU’s own European court of Justice.

Crucially, though, the document does not say that the constitution increases substantially the powers of the European Union, not least by abolishing 63 specific national vetoes and replacing them with qualified majority voting. All we get is: "extension of qualified majority voting in the Council and co-decision in the European Parliament".

Other delights include description of a provision "enabling a member state to withdraw from the European Union" without any recognition that, as sovereign states, members can leave any time they want – or their parliaments require. They do not need a constitution to tell them they can.

Then there is "greater involvement of national parliaments in EU decision-making". Note the word: "involvement". Involvement, of course, is not power. As the pig told the hen, when they were discussing the traditional English egg and bacon breakfast, "you’re involved – I'm committed".

Anyhow, the document is a useful accompaniment to the Bill, even if it is only to see how the government is spinning its case. But, once again, this is not information – it is state-funded propaganda.

Volcker speaks

Paul Volcker, former Chairman of the Federal Reserve, present chairman of the UN’s own enquiry into the oil-for-food, and continuing cheer-leader for the UN and its many activities, is presenting an interim report today.

The New York Times says this morning:

“His interim report, which has been eagerly and skeptically awaited by United Nations critics, is months overdue. Hampered by what investigators and diplomats called a reluctance among some member countries to cooperate and a lack of subpoena power, Mr. Volcker's panel has had difficulty obtaining evidence. Conservatives and other critics have accused him of being insufficiently impartial and independent, a charge he has denied. And John Danforth, who recently left his position as American ambassador to the United Nations, said Mr. Volcker, with a staff of over 60 people and a budget of some $30 million,lacked some tools needed to conduct a thorough inquiry.”
This would indicate that even the revered NYT, usually supporter of “multilateralism”, particularly if it means bashing a Republican administration (they had better get used to it) is waxing sceptical.

Mr Volcker is sadly reporting that the food-for-oil procurement system failed because it did not follow "the established rules of the organization designed to assure fairness and accountability".

Indeed. And who was responsible for ensuring that this happened? Not, apparently, SecGen Annan, who is still assuring all and sundry and it wasn’t him guv, or his son. We are not talking chicken feed, after all. At $64 billion, it was the largest UN humanitarian programme.

The report will speak of the irreconcilable conflict of interest that prevented Benon Sevan, the head of the programme from doing an averagely honest job.
“Citing what he called "conclusive" evidence, Mr. Volcker wrote that by "effectively participating in the selection of purchasers of oil under the program," Mr. Sevan had violated both "specific United Nations rules and of the broad responsibility of an international civil servant to adhere to the highest standards of trust and integrity."”
There will also be a mention of one Joseph Stephanides, a senior official on the Security Council staff, who “failed that the organization's own rules for buying oil, selling goods and selecting contractors were followed”.

Several questions will, undoubtedly be raised. The obvious one of how something like this could have happened will not be answered until someone truly independent, perhaps, one of the Congressional committees of enquiry, reports.

Then there is the problem of what is to happen with the people who behaved stupidly, dishonestly, culpably or, even, criminally. Will they be tried? Will they simply be retired with large pensions, all paid out of public funds and free to take up directorships as and when they please?

How will similar behaviour be prevented in the future, given that the UN has no machinery of supervision and no accepted standards of behaviour?

What of SecGen Kofi Annan and his progeny, described in a recent article in the Times as a man who simply lends his name to all sorts of shady deals but is “as straight as can be”. (He also spends his time in London with “other” Nigerians, according to the same article. Clearly, the journalist does not realize that Kojo Annan is a Ghanaian, that there is little love lost between most Ghanaians and Nigerians and that there is a question mark over the activity of numerous Nigerian businessmen in London.)

There is a kind of a response to the last question:
“Even though no evidence of "systematic or widespread abuse" was found in how the program's administrative funds were spent, Mr. Volcker wrote, the commission still found what he called "a clear lapse from disciplined judgment."

Mr. Volcker called his panel's initial findings about Mr. Sevan "more disheartening." He indicated that the investigation of Mr. Sevan, an aide to Kofi Annan, was continuing, as was his investigation of how and why Cotecna Inspection, a Swiss-based company that was hired to inspect humanitarian goods bought by Iraq and that employed Mr. Annan's son, got its own contract.”
As they say, this one will run and run, though how long can Mr Volcker go on wriggling like this is another interesting question.

Danger - Riddell at large

Peter Riddell – the Times newspaper's contribution to care in the community - is at it again. Although we have had cause to agree with some of his sentiments in the past, today’s column suggesting that, "as foreign secretary, Gordon Brown could lead from the front on Europe" gives us more than a few problems – although Riddell does float some interesting ideas.

Certainly there is nothing particularly new in the suggestion that Brown should become foreign secretary after the election. Whether it is in both his and Tony Blair’s interests, as Riddell asserts, is another matter.

But Riddell would have it that, for once, "there is a coincidence of Mr Blair's desire to establish his legacy and Mr Brown's for a benign inheritance." The link is next year's referendum on the EU constitution.

This, Riddell argues, is mainly seen just in terms of Blair's future – and who would disagree? But, for Brown, he adds, taking over as prime minister after a defeat would be the worst possible start to his premiership.

We remain with Riddell when he observes that the EU referendum is often discussed as if it were just an optional extra to the main political debate and we agree with his sentiment that Labour will not highlight Europe in its election campaign.

It is very much part of our own analysis that Blair will concentrate on the strength of the economy and public services, in the hope of retaining the support of Eurosceptic newspapers and voters now, with the promise of a separate, free-standing vote on the constitution later

We even agree that "Europe" cannot be ring-fenced. Relations with the EU are as central to politics as public services, says Riddell, particularly given Blair's repeated promise that Britain should take a leading role in the EU. In what begins to sound like a love-fest, we also agree that "The key is the EU constitution," and that a "no" vote would not just mean a reversion to the status quo, especially if all, or virtually all, other EU members back the treaty.

It is indeed probable that France and Germany would attempt to create a core Europe, with Britain on the outside, turning Britain into a marginal member of the EU and fuelling demands within the Tory party for withdrawal. Blair almost certainly have to resign as prime minister and Brown would have to spend the rest of the parliament renegotiating Britain’s position in the EU.

Writes Riddell, "he could not just dismiss the constitution as Blair's agenda. Despite differences of language, Mr Brown is no Eurosceptic." Yipeee!! Someone else has noticed... "Mr Brown is no Eurosceptic."

And, with the odds against winning remaining high the only way the "yes" side can win is if all ministers are fully involved. Brown could, and should, therefore, play a leading part, says Riddell. And the best way for Blair to tie Brown into the campaign would be by making him foreign secretary.

Then we fall apart. "Mr Brown needs a 'yes' vote, in the interests not only of a smooth start to his premiership, but also of avoiding a damaging disruption both to Labour’s foreign policy goals and to Britain’s long-term strategy towards Europe".

Oh dear. How, when our membership of the EU is disrupting our foreign policy, and putting us at odds with our most valuable ally, the United States, can Riddell assert that Brown needs a "yes" vote to avoid "damaging disruption" to Labour's foreign policy goals? Does he know something about Labour's goals that we do not?

As for "Britain's long-term strategy towards Europe", could someone tell us what it is… other than craven surrender at every opportunity? And if that is the case, why does Brown need a "yes" vote?

In Veritas, islamophobia

Already the "knocking" has started, with The Guardian taking a tilt at the emergent "Veritas" party. In today's edition, it singles out one Anthony Bennett – better known as Tony – who is described as "a key member of Robert Kilroy-Silk's new political party."

Bennett, it appears, co-founded an organisation called "the People's Campaign to Keep the Pound" with Ian Anderson, a former chairman of the National Front. This is the same Bennett, the Guardian says, who was fired from the UK Independence Party last year after publishing a pamphlet describing the prophet Muhammad as a paedophile – a story that was run in September by the Sunday Telegraph.

Bennett has been working as a researcher for Mr Kilroy-Silk after being banned, last year, from holding any UKIP office for two years because of his writings on Islam. Kilroy, however, has defended Bennett's remarks about Muhammad, saying that they had been part of a "reasoned, academic exposition" aimed at explaining the reasons behind the September 11 terrorist attacks.

However, Bennett may not be Kilroy’s only or even main problem. Prominent at the launch of his party yesterday was another person who is known to this Blog as being a holocaust denier, a virulent anti-Semite and an Islamophobe par excellence. With colleagues of a similar persuasion, these people have been very active in the setting-up of Kilroy's new party.

Whatever Kilroy’s personal beliefs, therefore, he is attached to some very dubious people. And, despite the obvious hostility between Kilroy and UKIP, in a perverse sense, he may have done UKIP something of a favour. Unwittingly, no doubt, he has cleaned out some of the rubbish from its ranks, that some UKIP members were very happy to see depart.

China – the stakes continue to rise

Heedless of US concerns, the EU is continuing on the path of lifting the arms embargo on China, with the Financial Times reporting that it is putting final touches to its "code of conduct" on arms exports, that will replace the existing controls.

The key to this code – which is widely regarded as a "fig-leaf", not least because it is not legally binding – is a supposedly "more transparent" export system, something which France was originally opposed to.

This is still regarded by the US as inadequate, the main provisions of the code remaining virtually unchanged since it was first unveiled last year.

Condoleezza Rice, having already sounded warnings against lifting the embargo, is due to travel to Europe next week, when the issue will most certainly be raised.

Nevertheless, EU is maintaining its stance that lifting the embargo will have limited practical effect, and is merely a "symbolic move" in keeping with the growing partnership between Europe and China.

The whole issue, however, is now broadening out, with the US anxious to discuss with the EU member states the vital strategic issue of technology transfer. A series of confidential consultations is under consideration, involving a "what bothers you" list of proscribed weapons and technologies.

But what is hampering negotiations is US incredulity over the pledge by leaders at a Brussels European Council in December, that "the result of any decision [on the embargo] should not be an increase of arms exports from EU member states to China, neither in quantitative nor qualitative terms".

After all, if there is no intention to increase arms sales to China, why is the EU so keen to lift the embargo, they wonder.

Wednesday, February 02, 2005

An "unashamed economic liberal"

Gone are the heady days of the Prodi commission, when anything the fiery Italian president said seemed to guarantee a headline.

Now, says the Financial Times, which has interviewed the new commission president for today’s edition, "visitors to José Manuel Barroso's 13th-floor office at the European Commission in Brussels soon ask themselves a question: what is this man doing here?" "The new Commission president", it observes, "speaks colourless, managerial language about facilitating co-operation in a Europe of nation states."

In other words, he is mind-crushingly boring, so deadly dull that only the FT bothers to report him.

The FT reporter, having managed to stay awake during a 90-minute interview, comes away with the impression that Barroso is "an unashamed economic liberal." And this is the man who wants to increase the EU budget to 1.14 percent of EU member state GDP?

But, if he is boring, at least, according to the FT, he has "clarity of focus on pro-business reform". Neither Romano Prodi nor him Jacques Santer had this. So, while Prodi would speak of grand federal visions for a government of Europe, and of the European Union's role in the world, Barroso talks of jobs and economic growth.

The interview, by the way, is to mark Barroso's agenda for the EU's spring economic European Council (the FT calls it a "summit") when EU leaders decide what to do "about their hopelessly ambitious plan, drawn up in 2000 in Lisbon, to overtake the US as the world's most competitive economy by 2010." Nice to know that, after all the hype, Lisbon is "hopelessly ambitious".

Now, José Manuel Barroso wants to persuade the EU to drop the empty slogans. Is this the same José Manuel Barroso that Margot Wallström lauded for addressing the EU parliament with the slogans, "Prosperity, Solidarity, Security", adding the "key words" in the plenary debate: "balance, sustainability, delivery, social agenda, citizens, Lisbon agenda, competitiveness, focus"? Or are there two José Manuel Barrosos?

Anyhow, this "unashamed economic liberal" wants to concentrate on three essentials: "We need to make Europe a more attractive place to invest, live and work, we need to spend more on research for growth and we need more and better jobs," he says. Well, he;s made a good start. After being mere prime minister of Portugal, he's certainly got a better job.

And how is José Manuel Barroso going to maker these miracles happen?

At the top of his agenda is the completion of a single market in services, which make up 70 per cent of the EU economy. What he says is that he wants to reduce barriers that make it difficult for many in services - from architects to caterers - to work across national boundaries. What he will actually do is create a nightmare of red-tape and regulation that makes is even more difficult and expensive for everyone to work.

Furthermore, he is sensitive to the claims of countries including France that full services liberalisation could allow companies from eastern Europe to set up in the west, with lower labour standards. "There is a problem of social dumping inside the EU," he says. And that will be stopped, no doubt. Having price competition amongst professionals? That would never do.

On competition policy, he stands behind his board lady, Neelie Kroes, the EU competition commissioner, and her scepticism towards Franco-German rhetoric about the creation of "European industrial champions".

"There is a tendency in Europe, faced with increased competition from other parts of the world, to go for interventionist policies," he says. "I'm not against European champions, but they must come out of competition. "When public authorities choose champions, they usually waste public money - they get it wrong."

For Barroso, this "unashamed economic liberal", the third strand of his commission's "economic reforms" should be big spending on regional aid. And although these transfers from Brussels have been questioned by Britain, Germany and some other member states, Barroso hopes to face down "the EU's big paymasters".

Otherwise, he says, “there could be a tendency to re-nationalise regional policy… that would not only be unfair, he says, but could pose a problem in terms of competition policy if member states were seen to be giving market-distorting handouts." Clearly, only the commission is allowed to distort the market.

And, for all that, this "unashamed economic liberal" is not going to touch the Common Agricultural Policy. He is not going to waste political capital on going into battle to reopen a deal secured by President Jacques Chirac in 2002. "I don't think it would be wise to reopen that discussion," he says. So much for "economic reform".

Never mind, though. Despite being "wounded" by the debaçle in the EU parliament over the approval of his commission, in public, José Manuel Barroso exudes "a breezy pragmatism". And we are reminded of another slogan he offered the EU parliament: "Dreams are of no use if we do not map out how we can turn them into reality."

Perhaps he needs to be reminded that one man’s dream is another's nightmare.

What do they think they are up to?

There are times when I despair of our opponents. What do they think they are up to? Why cannot they come up with something better argued, better prepared, better presented?

Take the Centre for European Reform (CER), an organization I used to have a certain amount of wary respect for. Directed by journalist and author Charles Grant, this think-tank appeared to carve itself a reasonably credible niche as a perestroika Europhile organization, basically in favour of the project but full of suggestions on how it can be improved.

Recently, as I have noted before, they have changed from being in any way interested in improvement to another cheer-leading organization for the great Union or, as they prefer to refer to it rather hopefully, Europe.

CER has a new Director of Foreign Policy, one Mark Leonard, the former NuLab wunderkind and Director of Demos. Mark Leonard has, somewhat belatedly, since it has been written about in a number of American publications, caught on to the idea of “soft power”, the kind, apparently, that “Europe” extends throughout the world. (Especially, presumably, Afghanistan and Iraq, not to mention other Arab states, who are watching Iraqi developments with interest, though they may not have noticed any sizeable EU presence there.)

Mr Leonard is about to have a book published, entitled in a somewhat jejeune fashion Why Europe Will Run the 21st Century. How anybody runs a century and why Mark Leonard thinks he should know the answer for the whole of it in the year 04 I leave to our readers to determine.

He had one jolly little wheeze. At the launch of the new eurosceptic party Veritas this morning, there was a tiny demonstration. Two people were holding a large banner, which announced the title Why Europe Will Run the 21st Century, two people were handing out flyers for the book and two other people, one of whom turned out to be Mark Leonard, were standing around chatting, hoping, presumably, to attract some of the attention that was going to Robert Kilroy-Silk. A little sad, I thought.

Then I asked Mark Leonard whether he meant Europe or the European Union. Errm, he said, well, I suppose I mean the European Union. I tut-tutted at the inaccuracy and asked with the greatest politeness whether he minded if I blogged it all. He looked a little uneasy. The CER, I may add, has no blog.

So what does the flyer tell us about the book? Well, it seems, those who think Europe will be weak and ineffectual are wrong. Europe will dominate the century, not America. How somebody who seems unable or unwilling to tell the difference between a continent with a complicated history and a political construct can predict anything is something of a mystery, until one realizes that the ideas have already been advanced by … well, as I said, Americans like Jeremy Rifkin and Andrew Moravchik (of whom more in another posting).

The first point Mark Leonard’s flyer, handed out outside the Veritas launch, made was that Europe only looks dead because America thinks so. Yes, gentle and perspicacious reader, this trenchant fighter for the idea of European superiority in world affairs starts off by looking rather fearfully at what America thinks about his idol. That, in a way, tells us all we need to know about what Mr Leonard probably feels deep down.

It seems America has had it because all it can do is launch the occasional military strike. Presumably Mr Leonard has paid not attention to the carefully enunciated policy of spreading liberty and democracy across the world.

These military strikes “fail to tackle the causes of global problems”, whatever these may be. One must always beware people who are incapable of defining precisely what they are talking about even in short flyers.

Of course, Europe is not like that. Oh dear me, no. Mr Leonard does not mention this, being modest on behalf of the project, but there is the small matter of sucking up to tyrants and authoritarian leaders, supporting terrorists, sending in troops when they feel like it (remember the Ivory Coast and DR Congo), breaking the UN embargo through the oil-for-food scam, and continuing with ruinous economic policies like the CAP and the CFP, which contribute to poverty in the Third World. So, perhaps, Mr Leonard is right – the EU does have a big influence on world affairs.

However, that is not what he means. Or so he says. What he means is that

“Europe works in a more diffuse way. It extends its influence through legislation, spreading its values across the world, from Russia to Rwanda.”
If I were him, I would have chosen different examples. Presumably the book was written before the latest political developments in Russia but it is now generally acknowledged that President Putin is moving extremely fast back into an era of political authoritarianism that does not even have the merit of providing a framework for free enterprise.

To be fair, nothing Putin has done is alien to Russian history, but Mr Leonard seems to think that he has been influenced by “Europe” through legislation. Either he cares little about what really goes on in the world or he tells tales of porcine aviation.

Then there is Rwanda. A bit of a mess. If it was caused by “Europe” or happened under the influence, “Europe” ought to be ashamed of herself. There is, of course, good evidence that some parts of “Europe”, namely France, were strongly supportive of the Hutu militias, and, thus can be said to have had an influence in Rwanda. Did Mr Leonard mean that? I think we should be told.
“Europe brings other countries into its orbit rather than defining itself against them, which is crucial at this volatile moment in our history. Its lack of a single leader allows it to expand to accommodate ever-greater numbers of countries without collapsing.”
As I said, I despair. The European Union is already feeling the strain at taking in ten new countries, eight of them former communist ones. Serious, grown-up people who look at the issues, are shaking their heads with worry and that is before the question of Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia, let alone, Turkey comes up.

Besides, the EU has nobody in its orbit except countries that are hoping to become members for one reason or another. As we have pointed out before, the EU’s problem (well, one of them) is that it has no clear attitude to countries close to itself and has to escape into banal generalities when its aims are discussed.

Finally, Mr Leonard tells us that
“Although it is responsible for half our legislation and half our trade, and controls entire areas of policy from agriculture to environmental regulation, it is practically invisible. This subtle power is a tremendous source of strength.”
What he means by subtle power, presumably, is the fact that politicians will not admit how much is controlled by the unaccountable EU and how little by them. Well, Mr Leonard has just blown the gaffe, and he will not be thanked.

His figures are wrong, incidentally. Around eighty per cent of our legislation, according to the government comes from the EU and, if we take invisibles into account, less than half of our trade is with the EU. In fact only ten per cent or so of our economic activity, involved the Single Market.

Still, only a lad who has never had a day job in his life can think that the power that produces endless laws and regulations is invisible. It may have been hidden but it is becoming more and more visible, not least because the Commission wants it to be. On this, as on so many things Mr Leonard is a tad out of date.

The real question is who does he think will be impressed by these arguments? Who are these people who will say: whoppeee, I am so glad that the invisible hand of Europe runs my life. Is this what the yes camp going to use as an argument?

Bring on the rain

This is the text of my address given last night to the Kings College European Week. Delivered to a largely Europhile audience, the words "pork chop", "Jewish wedding" and "as welcome as" came to mind.

Humour can be found in unexpected places. I expected to find it least in the European Parliament where, in 1999 I joined the political group led by the Danish MEP Jens-Peter Bonde. That's Bonde.. Jens Bonde.

It cannot have been a coincidence that in the parliament in Strasbourg, on the 7th floor, the functionnaires allocated him room 007.

I presume the same sense of humour pervades the recent appointment of the fisheries commissioner to Barroso's commission. But, to understand the joke, you really have to be a fan of Star Trek – which some people still think is fictional.

Regular viewers of "Next Generation" or "Voyager" will know of the deadly foe that infests the galaxy – half organic, half machine – which takes over the bodies of its victims, turning them into clones of themselves, wiping out whole planets and species.

Their famous catch-phrase, on confronting their prey, is "Resistance is futile… you will be assimilated". And the name of this deadly foe is the Borg.

It was with some delight therefore that we noted that the new fisheries commissioner goes by the name of Joe Borg, which rather confirmed our suspicions as to the eventual destination of "the project", otherwise known as the European Union.

We are wondering whether the Union will even stop when it reaches South Africa. Perhaps that explains why the EU is so keen on its space policy. Is it going to change it motto from "Unity in diversity" to: "to boldly go…"?

Joking aside – for those of you who think I was joking – this does seem to characterise the EU's policy towards it neighbours. Its much-vaunted foreign policy seems not so much to relate with them as to absorb them… to assimilate them. Perhaps it should change its motto to: "Resistance is futile".

My task today, though, is not to look back but to look forward, to speculate on the effects of enlargement on the body corporate of the European Union and on the assimilees themselves.

In this I want to advance a thesis – initially from the perspective of the United Kingdom, asking you to remember that we too were assimilated, albeit some 30 years ago. Where the current enlargement countries go, we went before.

But, with my thesis – yet to be introduced – goes a theme: that theme is "ignorance". No one but a diehard would argue with the assertion that, when the UK joined the then EEC, it was on the basis of ignorance.

We thought we were joining a trading association when we were actually joining a political union. Yes, there were warning voices in the 1960s and 70s but not enough believed them.

Thirty years later, much of that ignorance prevails throughout British society. Very few people, for instance, could define accurately the role of the commission, how its power rests on its monopoly of proposal and how it exploits that power through the process of conditional agenda setting.

Few people understand the role of the council of ministers, still less the European Council and how many confuse it with the Council of Ministers?

But the most ignorance is displayed in relation to that most visible of institutions – the so-called European Parliament. Having worked in that institution, having studied it close-up, dissected its workings, I am constantly surprised by the number of people, including many MEPs, who actually believe it is a democratic institution.

For sure, it is a common mistake, where people confuse form – elections, voting procedures, etc., - with substance, the actual fabric and meaning of democracy. But you just have to recall that Saddam Hussein was "elected" with a 99 percent majority and no one would have called pre-liberation Iraq an democracy.

I am reminded of the cynical Irish politician who told me, after a lengthy explanation of the political situation in Northern Ireland, "If you think you understand it, you haven't been listening". If you think the European Parliament is democratic, you know little about the parliament, and even less about democracy.

Now for the thesis. This is that all us enlargees – assimilees – joined the Union on a false bill of goods, failing to understand the true nature of the beast. The majorities of all these countries, 19 in all since the establishment of the original six, did not know what they were joining and, in the main, still do not know.

This is borne out by the recent Eurobarometer survey, and others, which have demonstrated levels of ignorance of the constitution approaching 80 percent. And since perhaps 80 percent of the constitution comprises the original treaties, it is not unreasonable to assert that the ignorance spreads to general knowledge of the EU itself.

For the recent enlargees, this is not surprising. Those in the former Soviet bloc, we are told, joined for security. Squeezed between the Bear and the Borg, they had to make a choice and the Borg looked a better bet. They didn't need to know the details – and still don't.

But things are changing. In the UK, initially, few took any notice of the EEC once we had joined. It dealt with the dry, technical details of economic integration, which directly affected very few people.

But, since the Maastricht treaty, with the EU entering the end game and acquiring a greater political dimension, people are beginning to wake up. They are noticing the elephant in the room.

Here, I can call in aid another survey, one recently conducted by Mori for the BBC which, contrary to perceived wisdom, demonstrated that the more people knew about the EU, the less they liked it.

True, the level of knowledge is far from perfect but a growing constituency has grasped enough of the basics to realise that the European Union is something they do not want. All the evidence in the UK shows that the disaffected constituency is growing and that, once converted, it holds fast to its views.

But there are no constituencies of a similar scale in the rest of the EU, except perhaps in that other mature democracy. Nevertheless, the evidence is that, from a low base, it will grow and grow.

Further, it is my belief that political activism, political dynamism is more aggressive in the former Soviet bloc countries than it is in the UK. Their peoples take their politics more seriously.

It is thus my belief that it will not take the recent enlargees 30 years to wake up to the idea that they have been "had", that they have been sold a false bill of goods.

My colleague put a time on this – five years. The CIA gave it 15 years before the EU collapses. I cannot put a time on it but I am certain that it will the recent enlargement countries who will wake up first and, together with an aroused United Kingdom, will call a halt to the project.

As an aside, if it takes 15-20 years to negotiate Turkish entry, it will never happen. There will no longer be an EU left to join.

So, my prognosis for enlargement is straightforward. The seeds of destruction have always been in the soil of the "project", with its inherent lack of democracy. Enlargement is the fertiliser. All I can say is: "bring on the rain."

The Tillack case again

We have covered the Tillack case once or twice before. It is time to return to it, as events have taken an interesting turn.

Last month, Hans-Martin Tillack, the former Brussels correspondent of the German magazine Stern was awarded the Leipzig Prize for the Freedom and the Future of the Media. This was given to Herr Tillack jointly with Seymour M. Hersh, Britta Petersen and Anna Politkovskaya.

There are, however, certain differences in the lives and careers of the four journalists. Mr Hersh is a long-standing American investigative journalist who has a number of political scalps to his credit, though, oddly enough, all of them seem to be Republican. Must be an accident, since it is unlikely that a canny and experienced hack would not have noticed that there has been the odd problem or two with Democrats as well.

Mr Hersh’s latest coup was the publication of the shocking Abu Ghraib pictures, though it ought to be pointed out that what he managed to find was a leak from the ongoing Pentagon administration. Still, those pictures had to go into the public domain.

Mr Hersh, needless to say, has suffered no ill consequences either personally or professionally, as is only right and proper in a society that values freedom, however inconvenient that might be.

Britta Petersen is also a remarkable person. She reported from Afghanistan in 2002 for the Financial Times Deutschland. While there she realized that our ordinary understanding of journalism was inadequate for the understanding of the war-torn country.

It seems that what she meant was that the concept of independent media is a difficult one to establish in countries like Afghanistan, though as German media outlets tend to be linked to political parties, it may not be the best example to take.

Ms Petersen’s response was surprisingly sensible: she founded the Free Press Initiative, which unites experienced journalists to train beginners in Afghanistan. Apparently, she travels outside Kabul – a most unusual course of action for journalists or, for that matter, NGO workers of any kind – and, thus, puts her life in danger. Still, she is highly valued by the society in which she functions.

Then there is Anna Politkovskaya. Her case is in a very different league. She is an astonishingly courageous woman who has written truthful and shattering accounts of developments in Russia and of the war of attrition the Russian army is waging against Chechnyan civilians.

Ms Politkovskaya, being one of only two journalists who has managed to penetrate into Chechnya and the surrounding areas (the other one being Arkady Babitsky, also on the Russian hit-list) was trying to make her way to the Beslan siege last autumn when she was poisoned and barely escaped with her life. Neither she nor Babitsky, who was, at the same time, arrested on trumped-up charges of hooliganism in Moscow, managed to get to the school siege and report on it.

Where can we put Hans-Martin Tillack on this scene? While he has not suffered to the extent Ms Politkovskaya has, neither has his life been too easy. After writing articles about abuses in OLAF, the Commission’s anti-fraud office and a book about corruption in the EU (from a basically Europhile point of view, one may add, though whether he still holds that opinion must remain doubtful) Herr Tillack was arrested, his home and office raided, his notes and computer confiscated.

Tillack was held by the Belgian police for ten hours, while they looked for evidence that he had bribed officials at OLAF to obtain information. They came up with charming little comments about wishing they were in Burma or Central Africa where, according to them, they know how to deal with journalists.

It was subsequently shown conclusively that the request to the Belgian police originated in the OLAF offices and, to add insult to injury, various officials have made public allegations of bribery, none of which have been substantiated.

Tillack and his employers have taken the case to the European Court of Justice demanding the return of the files and the computer. He has had the support of the International Federation of Journalists but, it seems, there is not very much they can do.

Crucially, Tillack and Stern magazine have gone to the German court, demanding that Joachim Gross be prevented from repeating the slander (as there is no evidence) that Tillack had bribed OLAF officials.

In September, the lower court, the Landgericht Hamburg, came down on Herr Tillack’s side and Joachim Gross was banned from repeating the allegation. Gross, supported by the Commission, appealed.

Hamburg’s highest court, the Oberlandesgericht, has found against Tillack and Stern. It is not that Joachim Gross is deemed to have spoken the truth. Far from it. The decision is more interesting than that.

It seems that no court can order a present or former employee of the Commission to desist from spreading lies or slander. A protocol of April 8 1965 grants EU civil servants a life-long immunity from legal proceedings “in respect of acts performed by them in their official capacity, including their words spoken or written”. And that includes setting the Belgian police at an investigative journalist.

What have Mr Hersh and Ms Petersen to say about that?

Delay on EU referendum?

According to George Jones, political editor of the Telegraph, Blair is considering delaying a referendum on the EU constitution, making Britain being the last of the 25 EU member states decide whether to adopt the constitution.

Jones points to the recent Telegraph poll which indicated that Mr Blair faces an enormous challenge in trying to turn round public opinion. We are told that his thinking now is that Britain should wait until September next year, by which time the rest of the member states will probably have approved the constitution.

The rationale is that if a big country such as France voted down the constitution, then it would effectively be dead and there would be no need for a UK referendum while, if all the other 24 member states backed the treaty, Blair would be able to argue that Britain risked being left behind.

This sounds plausible enough, but has all the hallmarks of political kite flying. However superficially attractive it might look, though, the downside is that a protracted campaign might introduce a "boredom factor" turning off voters and driving down the turnout, which could well favour the "no" campaign.

Also, with the Tories calling for an early referendum, it exposes Blair to the accusation of "running scared", which could be exploited by anti-constitution forces. And, of course, it would give the Blogger community another four months to spread the word.

Veritas is on its way

"Kilroy is here" might be the new slogan, with the launch this morning of Britain's newest political party, Veritas.

In barnstorming style, Kilroy took on the massed ranks of the media in a press conference this morning at the Institute of Civil Engineers, One Great George Street, Westminster. I am told by my co-editor, who was at the launch, that he chewed up the witless hacks and spat them out (leaving only hackless wits?). She will be posting an eye-witness report later today.

According to one early Guardian report, Kilroy gave a 15-minute speech, lambasting Tony Blair and Michael Howard as "liars". He said his new party would be looking for the votes of those who had "been made to feel ashamed of their culture and being British".

Says the Guardian, Kilroy mentioned only "mass immigration and uncontrolled asylum" as policy areas. "The former TV star and MEP", it says, "bordered on ranting as he dismissed the entire British political establishment repeatedly as liars, before saying the British public were 'tired of yah-boo politics'."

Kilroy was joined by his now deputy leader, ex-Ukip London assembly member Damian Hockney. The party’s new website can be seen here.

A Horlicks…

As my colleague pointed out in the preceding posting, at the time of her writing, I was in Kings College London, alongside the Turkish and Polish ambassadors, speaking to a capacity audience on the subject "enlargement – a blessing or a curse?".

Having taken the late train home, sitting in front of the computer at 3 am local is not the best time to start writing a post but it has become a tradition on EU referendum to set up a posting overnight for our morning readers, while we catch up on our sleep. For obvious reasons – this has become known as the "Horlicks blog".

However, I will save impressions and details of the evening after I have communed with Morpheus but it was amusing to note that I was put on to speak first, followed by the Polish ambassador, who addressed the (mainly Europhile) audience saying: "You would not expect me to agree with anything that Dr North has said, and I won't disappoint you – I do not agree with anything he has said".

The quote of the night came from that self-same ambassador who declared that: "enlargement was the most successful aspect of EU foreign policy". Some foreign policy – you assimilate your neighbours into the collective, so that they are no longer foreign countries. If you think it through, he is saying you abolish foreign policy by abolishing foreigners. Nice one.

Anyhow, on return, I was greeted by an e-mail from my colleague saying that there was "no news – the continent is isolated", only then to find two intriguing news items on the net, only minutes old.

One was on the newly appointed US secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice, warning Europe against sending "the wrong signal" to China by ending then arms embargo on the country. This is very much a US "red line" and they ain't going to go quietly on this one. We shall be returning to the subject.

The second story was on state department spokesman Richard Boucher saying that the US "took a dim view" of an EU suspension of diplomatic sanctions on Cuba, calling productive dialogue with Havana "simply not possible."

"We remain concerned that suspending the restrictive measures without achieving the goals for which they were put into place will embolden regime hardliners and dishearten the peaceful opposition," he said.

The EU had lifted its diplomatic sanctions against Cuba Monday, easing a standoff after Havana clamped down on dissidents in 2003.

Most people will be familiar with the joke about the harassed mother telling her daughter to seek out her brother, with the words: "find out what Johnny is doing and tell him to stop it". This seems a variation of that theme where the EU seems to be saying, "find out what will most irritate the US and let's do it".

But, for an organisation that seems to think that its most successful foreign policy is enlargement – at least according to the Polish ambassador – I suppose we cannot expect much else. Perhaps the next move will be to invite Cuba to join the EU… and then China?

Tuesday, February 01, 2005

European unity at last

As our readers may know, I took part in a discussion at King’s College, London on the subject of European identity. (My colleague is talking about enlargement even as I type these words.)

The discussion afterwards was quite lively and confirmed my view that the big division is between those, no matter what age, nationality, gender or generation, who think that institutions are essential for everybody’s well-being and decisions on everything must be taken by experts, and those who actually believe in freedom and government accountability.

Inevitably, the question of “Europe” as a strong player on the world scene came up. As usual, I replied that while you can put together any number of structures, committees and commissions, until there is a core agreement on what it is “Europe” wants to achieve, what the purpose of all those structures is, there can be no question of it becoming a superpower that rivals (in a friendly way or otherwise) the United States.

Well, there we are. No sooner said than done. For a time, anyway. “Europe” is once again united, as it was over the mess in the Balkans, once NATO, led by the Americans and the British imposed a kind of a solution.

“Europe” is united in praising the Iraqi elections, which would not have happened if some of those “Europeans” had had their way. It is also united in offering aid to support efforts to support security. Good of them.

France and Germany are now grudgingly agreeing to train a few (800 I believe) Iraqi police officers. Well, every little bit counts.

President Chirac, apparently telephoned President Bush and told him rather grandly that

“The strategy of terrorist groups had partly failed.”
Did President Bush manage to keep a straight face? I’d like to think so. Partly failed? Ahem, what was it supposed to achieve? A break-down in the electoral process, I believe. It failed completely. And how much did France or the European Union contribute to that failure? Well, there is that unspecified sum paid over for the two journalists, not to mention peevish opposition to all attempts to rid Iraq of a noxious (but really rather profitable for some people) regime in Iraq.

Joschka Fischer was also quick to make a statement to praise the courage of Iraqi voters.
“They deserve great recognition for the will they have shown to shape the future of the country peacefully and democratically, despite massive intimidation.”
They do, indeed and we must not stint our praise and admiration. But, should there not be some acknowledgement of the people who made all this possible: the American, British, Australian, Polish and various other soldiers? And, of course, the Iraqi soldiers and policemen who bought the right "to shape the future" with their blood?

Still, we do now have a “European” consensus. As I have mentioned, we did before, in the Balkans. In fact we had two lots of consensus. First, there was the consensus to prevent a “level killing field” in the fragrant words of the then Foreign Secretary Douglas Hurd, to keep Yugoslavia together even if it meant complete support for Milosevic’s bloody policies.

Then there was another consensus. When Bosnia was allowed its independence and Kosovo a form of autonomy (both Muslim countries, incidentally) by NATO troops, “Europe” once again united to further freedom and democracy in the former Yugoslavia.

None of this precisely makes “Europe” a superpower that will have some influence in the world, especially not influence for what one might describe as liberty. Of course, only those crude Yanks would use such unnuanced expressions.

Spanish practices

It isn’t fair to mock these people, I know, but one cannot quite resist it. Not only have we had to put up with a demonstration in Spain protesting against the Iraqi elections – are these people against democracy in general or only for Iraq and other Arab countries, one wonders – but we also have to watch the Spanish government (elected in a rather curious response to the terrorist outrage in Madrid) trying to be the first member state to bring in the desired yes vote.

Well, of course, we have had two yes votes, in Lithuania and Hungary, but these had not gone to a referendum. February 20 will be the first of the latter. (By the way, memo to the journalists on the International Herald Tribune: the vote is not going to be about Spain’s “stronger ties with the European Union”, no matter what the political spin doctors may say. Spain is a member of the European Union and there can be no closer ties. They are to vote on the constitution for the whole Union.)

The result in Spain is not in any doubt. 80 per cent are saying they are in favour, whatever it is they are in favour of – presumably, the very good deal they are getting from the European Union.

The reason I say that is not to make derogatory comments about Spaniards (well, not about this, anyway). Ninety per cent have also said that they have no real idea of what is in the European Constitution. In fact, a recent Commission poll says that only 11 per cent of the population in the EU feels confident that they know what that document contains. It is not clear, what proportion of each member state was questioned.

The problem for the Spanish government is the turn-out. As the article in the Trib puts it:

“All but the most optimistic projections put voter turnout below 50 per cent,and critics of the government’s approach worry that a very low turn-out, say under 30 per cent, could raise the vote’s credibility.”
How different from the situation in Iraq, where a 55 per cent turn-out across the country, and a considerably higher one than that in some regions, cannot really put the vote’s validity into doubt.

By the way, I trust all our readers know what that vote was for: to choose a commission that would debate and write a new constitution for Iraq. Ahem, I do not remember voting for M Giscard d’Estaing’s Convention. Nor do I remember any debate about the monstrous document that arrived in the member states without the slightest possibility of amendment.

We cannot go around asking the people of Europe can we now. The people of Iraq? Now, that is something else again.

The unwinnable quagmire

You might have difficulty making a link between Mark Steyn’s splendid article in this morning’s Telegraph, on the response to the Iraqi elections, and the article below it in the print edition headed, "Labour creates a nation of supplicants" by David Green director of Civitas.

You might have even more difficulty in then linking these articles with the one earlier in the "book", by David Rennie in Brussels, entitled: "New EU laws track food from 'farm to fork'."

And if one then throws in the response to the Conservative Party’s new fishing policy "green paper", about which nothing yet has been publicly written, I am sure readers will be doubting the sanity of this writer, when he claims that they are all very closely inter-related.

Bear with me.

First, the Steyn piece, in which he reports picking up the "tantalising snippet" from his car radio that, "In Madrid, demonstrators took to the streets to protest the Iraqi election."

"I'm fairly blasé about European decadence these days", he writes, noting as an aside that, "I barely raised an eyebrow at the news that an unemployed waitress in Berlin faces the loss of her welfare benefits because she's refused to take a job as a prostitute in a legalised brothel". He continues, writing: "but, even so, it surely couldn't be true that the Spaniards so objected to the Iraqi election that they were protesting about it." But it was true.

He then writes of the election being a "heroic moment" for the Iraqis, "defying the suicide bombers and head-hackers." Before the vote, he writes, the naysayers told us that the indelible purple dye on each voter's finger would mark them out for punishment by "insurgents". Instead, it became a defiant symbol of the country's freedom.

After some entertaining descriptive material, in which he charts the steady growth of the democracy movement in the Arab world, Steyn observes that, "in Europe and North America, the western Left have got on the wrong side of this movement."

"Shame on them," he writes. And, in contrast to the inspirational images from Quagmire Central this weekend, in Europe you can find a few Spaniards brave enough to go into the streets and sneer at Iraqi voters and the moronic Bush, but mustering the courage for anything else is harder.

"The Western media," he concludes, "might want to rethink their basic narrative. The Iraqi people just took a great leap forward. It's Europe that's looking more like an unwinnable quagmire."

But, if in Iraq, rippling through the entire Arab world, the "big idea" is democracy, what do we find in the UK? According to David Green, it is the dependency culture, brought on by over fifty years of welfare state, creating the "nation of supplicants".

But it is not just Labour, as Green asserts. This is the insidious disease that has been afflicting the nation ever since the Second World War. And how does that link with the EU’s new laws to "track food from 'farm to fork'".

Well, if there was any more preposterous a piece of nanny-like legislation, it is hard to imagine it.
The EU commission has unveiled "a mammoth new system of regulations", obliging the food and drink trade to track and record all food and food ingredients from "farm to fork", then keep those records for up to five years.

Since 1 January of this year, every business in the food and drink trade has been required to keep detailed records of every delivery from a supplier and every delivery out to a customer. Now, guidelines published yesterday spell out the meaning of that new requirement, technically known as Article 18 of the General Food Law.

According to the commission, those affected do not just include established companies but individuals, such as those running a private catering firm out of their kitchen, or a "gastro-pub" buying fresh game from a hunter at the back door.

What used to be the noble and useful task of producing food has now become a quagmire of bureaucracy, a massive and entirely unproductive exercise in record-keeping which will add a huge burden to the already difficult task of keeping the nation fed.

In a more robust society, the nation’s food producers would have risen up en masse and rejected this preposterous impost but, beaten down by a succession of food scares and the legions of self-interested lobbyists, the industry, whimpishly, has submitted quietly to this new madness and, in some cases, has even welcomes us.

And that brings us to the Conservative Party fishing green paper which was launched last month. In the document, we offered genuine devolution, with the establishment of local Fisheries Management Authorities, rune by local people with the knowledge of their own fisheries, who would take charge and devise rules appropriate to local conditions.

But the most strident and voluble response to the paper has been from two groups – who shall remain nameless – that are demanding a commitment from the Party to introduce national schemes, governed by regulations produced by central government. Offered the freedom to run their own affairs, these groups insist on "ministers in suits" telling them what to do.

I have likened it to a phenomenon we have seen when battery hens are released from their cages in to a paddock and freedom. They first thing they try to do is get back into the security of their cages.

That is the common theme. Compared to the robust response of the Iraqis to the challenge of democracy, we cannot even be bothered to vote. Instead we cravenly submit to the imposts of our rules, without protest, and run to the security of "nanny" whenever the prospect of freedom beckons.

In that environment, it is not surprising that the EU survives and prospers. It is the embodiment of the nanny state, even styling itself as "Mother Europe looking after its children".
Rightly, Steyn calls it an "unwinnable quagmire".

If we are to struggle free of this quagmire, we must learn to live outside the cages that the system has constructed around us.

The debate begins… sort of

It appears that there is going to be an early debate on the EU constitution in parliament after all. Stung, we are told by The Financial Times, by opposition accusations that he wants to bury the debate, he has decided that the ratification Bill will get its second reading on 9 February.

In fact, Straw has been attracting as much criticism from his own side, for the low key approach to the constitution, and it has clearly been getting to him.

His decision risks exposing divisions within the Labour party on the EU, only weeks before the start of a probable general election campaign. The FT estimates that up to 50 backbenchers, mainly traditionalists from the left of the party, might be opposed to the Bill.

However, the government will be imposing a three-line whip on its backbenchers, so the prospect of a revolt is very slim, especially this close to an election. Possibly, only a dozen or so will break ranks and walk through the "no" lobby.

Despite this, the Bill is still unlikely to become law until well after the election, as there are no plans to hold the time-consuming committee stage as more urgent Bills are competing for space for time. The Bill would, therefore, have to be reintroduced after the election, when the new government takes office.

An unnamed "senior Labour official", putting the best gloss on the decision, called the second reading "a useful event". He denied seeking to hide the issue. "The more national debate there is," he said, "the more exposed the fanciful arguments of the 'no' campaign and the Conservative party."

One suspects, though, that there will be a great deal of heat but very little light.

What Neelie did next

I take it, everyone remembers Neelie Kroes, the Competition Commissar, she who got into trouble over her many positions on various corporate boards. Well, having divested herself from all those positions, she has made her first pronouncement.

We have always argued on this blog that the idea of Neelie being business friendly is rather a joke. Sitting on corporate boards and amassing directorships does not prove you understand business or entrepreneurship.

How right we were. Ms Kroes has announced that state aid has to be directed away from “lame duck” national giants and towards small, dynamic, competitive firms. In fact, state aid should focus “on risk capital, research and innovation and on small- and medium-sized companies”.

Somebody should tell Ms Kroes that a small, dynmaic, entrepreneurial company does not need state aid. That is the definition of a successful business. (Someone should tell British farmers that as well, but that’s another story.)

In fact, putting the straitjacket of state aid and all the accompanying paperwork; redirecting their attention away from productivity and the market towards the management of bureaucracy and financial hand-outs is the surest way of making them less successful and less competitive.

Her main complaint is that rich countries are using state aid to help their own poorer areas and to attract investment there. Otherwise, say these countries, protesting against Ms Kroes’s plans, investment will go towards the new member states, where labour is cheaper.

Of course, some thought could be given to cutting taxes and regulations and thus making labour cheaper here – after all it is not the wages that make life for investors difficult but all the accompanying paraphernalia. But neither Ms Kroes, nor the various ministers have thought of that. All they can talk about is how to redivide the cake of state aid. No wonder Europe is falling behind economically.

By the way, what happened to the new dynamic Commission? It seems to be behaving just like the old, corporatist, redistributionist one.