Keep ‘em coming!

Posted on July 6, 2026 by grim

From MSN:

Fed Reserve working paper suggests Biden illegal immigrant wave drove up home prices 30%

A new Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas working paper estimates the record surge in illegal immigration during the Biden administration boosted employment while driving up home prices by as much as 30% and rent by 20%.

The paper combined immigration court records with government administrative data to create the first ever calculation of how a wave of 7 million illegal immigrants from 2021 through 2024 affected local labor and housing markets.

“From early 2021 to early 2024, the U.S. experienced an unprecedented boom in unauthorized immigration, followed by a rapid slowdown beginning in mid-2024. We provide the first systematic empirical assessment of the labor- and housing-market effects of this episode,” the working paper said.

“The total weighted-mean increases in house prices and rents over this period were 22.4% and 22.6%, respectively. Putting these together, for the average MSA, UIWF can explain approximately 30% of the total increase in house prices and 20% of the total increase in rents,” it added.

The researchers said they found little evidence that homebuilding expanded enough to meet the added demand, essentially creating a demand shock in markets where supply was already constrained.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 87 Comments

Not here though…

Posted on July 4, 2026 by grim

From Newsweek:

Home Prices Fall At Record Pace

After a sluggish spring season marked by ongoing affordability issues and growing economic fears around the Iran war, U.S. homebuyers could be lured back into the market by listing prices that are now falling at the fastest pace in at least nine years, according to the latest housing data.

The national median asking price in June fell 2.5 percent year-over-year to $430,000, according to real estate listings and online marketplace Realtor.com. It was the steepest annual decline since the platform started tracking data in 2017, marking the eighth consecutive month of falling prices in the country.

According to Realtor.com estimates, a buyer who purchased a $430,000 home last month with a 20 percent down payment and an average mortgage rate of 6.49 percent now faces a typical monthly payment of $2,172—saving about $132 a month compared to someone who had bought a home in June 2025 at the median listed price of $440,950 and when rates averaged 6.82 percent.

Median listing prices fell in all regions of the country, led by the West (-4.0 percent year-over-year to $600,000) and the South (-2.5 percent to $389,000). The Northeast saw a modest decline (-1.0 percent to $554,500), while in the Midwest prices were unchanged (at $329,900).

June also marked another record shift: for the first time in more than two years, the typical for-sale home spent no more time on the market than it did a year earlier, 53 days.

“It was a no-news-is-good-news June,” Jake Krimmel, senior economist at Realtor.com, said in a statement commenting on the data. “While it may seem obvious now, this was far from a foregone conclusion just a few months ago.”

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 106 Comments

Boomers had it easy

Posted on July 3, 2026 by grim

From USA Today:

For under-40 Americans, buying a first home has never been harder

Millennials think that buying a first-time home has never been harder. 

They’re pretty much right. 

Back in 1975, a typical home cost about 2.4 times as much as the average under-40 household earned in a year, a standard measure of housing affordability, according to a new report from Pew Research Center.  

By 2019, that price-to-income ratio had risen to 2.9. In 2024, it reached 3.5. 

Over the past decade, home prices have risen much faster than wages. The rising ratio of price to income, coupled with elevated interest rates, has put homeownership out of reach for millions of millennial and Gen Z Americans. 
…
First-time buyers represented only 21% of all home purchasers in 2025, a record low, according to the National Association of Realtors. The typical age of a first-time buyer climbed to 40, an all-time high. 

Nine in 10 adults under 40 say buying a first home is harder for them today than for their parents’ generation, Pew reports in a new survey. All under-40 adults are millennials, born between 1981 and 1996, or Gen Zers, born in 1997 or later.  

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 46 Comments

New budget, and it’s a big one

Posted on July 1, 2026 by grim

From NJ.com:

Sherrill signs record $60.7B N.J. budget. It saves senior tax relief, but fewer will get full payment.

New Jersey has a new state budget — just in the nick of time — as the state Legislature passed and Gov. Mikie Sherrill signed a record $60.7 billion spending plan Tuesday night, the first of her tenure, before the state’s midnight constitutional deadline.

They also approved nearly $360 million in supplemental spending for the budget set to expire.

Sherrill, a Democrat in her first year as governor, once again touted the plan as one that “puts affordability first,” stressing it provides a record level of property-tax relief. The budget lays outs how the state government will spend taxpayer money in the fiscal year that begins Wednesday.

But a little-noticed provision means some seniors who remain eligible for the Stay NJ property-tax break will receive less than the promised maximum benefit this year.

“It focuses on you — a budget that builds a future for your kids and your family,” Sherrill said standing alongside top Democratic lawmakers who lead the Legislature during an evening news conference in the Statehouse rotunda in Trenton. 

“This budget runs towards our toughest problems, not away from them.”

The annual mad dash to wrap up the annual budget in the final days of June provides a record $12 billion in school aid, $6 billion for public worker pensions, and more than $4.3 billion in property-tax relief. It also sets aside $6 billion in surplus, though that’s down from the state’s current $7.7 billion surplus.

The plan includes about $50 million to temporarily expand the state’s child tax credit and a new fee on large employers whose workers rely on Medicaid for their health insurance. Sherrill noted how it also does not feature broad tax increases on residents, while it does feature money for housing and safeguards against President Donald Trump’s policies.

Posted in New Development, New Jersey Real Estate, Politics | 120 Comments

Could be worse

Posted on June 29, 2026 by grim

From ROI-NJ:

New Jersey payrolls rose in May; jobless rate declines

Preliminary nonfarm employment estimates for May, produced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, indicate that New Jersey payrolls increased by 2,200 over the month, resulting in a seasonally adjusted employment level of 4,388,200 jobs.

The state’s unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.7% from April to May, the lowest level since October 2024. The jobless rate in New Jersey has declined for the last five months.

Employment estimates for April were revised upward to show a March to April gain of 7,100 nonfarm jobs (preliminary estimate: +5,600). The state’s unemployment rate for April remained at 4.8%. 

Over the past month, three out of nine private industry sectors recorded employment gains compared with April. Those sectors were leisure and hospitality (+3,000), construction (+600), and trade, transportation and utilities (+200).

Sectors that recorded job losses included professional and business services (-1,500), manufacturing (-500), private education and health services (-400), other services (-300) and financial activities (-200). The information area recorded no change over the month. The public sector posted a gain of 1,300 jobs for the month.

Over the year, the state recorded a total loss of 3,100 nonfarm jobs, with the private sector recording a loss of 300 jobs. Private education and health services industry recorded a year-over-year increase of 26,100 jobs.

Losses were recorded year-over-year in trade, transportation, and utilities (-6,400), leisure and hospitality (-5,300), manufacturing (-5,000), construction (-3,800), financial activities (-2,600), other services (-1,600), information (-1,100), and professional and business services (-500). The public sector posted a loss of 2,800 jobs over the same timeframe.

Posted in Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 149 Comments

Awww, too bad.

Posted on June 28, 2026 by grim

From ATTOM:

Home Flipping Profits Lowest Since Great Recession

ATTOM, the leading provider of property data, AI-powered analytics, and real estate intelligence solutions, today released its 2025 year-end U.S. Home Flipping Report, which shows that 297,045 single-family homes and condos were flipped nationwide in 2025. That was the fewest home flips recorded in a year since 2020, and down 3.9 percent from 2024’s total of 309,050.

Homes flipped by investors accounted for 7.4 percent of all home sales in 2025, down slightly from 7.6 percent the year prior.

As the nation saw its highest median home sales prices on record, Investors’ profit margins shrunk. The typical flipped home netted $65,981 in gross profit, down from $77,000 in 2024, resulting in a 25.5 percent return on investment, the lowest rate recorded since 2008 and down from 32.1 percent the prior year.

Home flippers experienced a boom decade after the 2008 financial crisis. Typical flipped homes were acquired for less than $150,000 and profit margins consistently exceeded 50 percent, even reaching 61.1 percent in 2012. But home prices have soared in recent years, bringing investor returns back to their pre-financial crisis levels.

“Competition for homes remains strong in many markets due to constrained supply,” said Rob Barber, CEO of ATTOM. “With prices staying elevated, investors are finding it harder to secure deals that deliver strong returns.”

“Flippers are having to get more creative to maintain profitability,” he added. “That could include taking on older homes, as the median flipped property in 2025 was built in 1978, the oldest since we began tracking, along with tighter cost control and more disciplined renovation strategies.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 27 Comments

Market slowdown?

Posted on June 27, 2026 by grim

From Fast Company:

Zillow downgrades its home price forecast. Here’s its outlook for 400-plus housing markets

Zillow economists just published their updated 12-month forecast, projecting that U.S. home prices—as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index—will shift -0.2% between May 2026 and May 2027.

That’s a tiny downward revision from its 12-month national forecast published in April (+0.1%) and its 12-month national forecast published in March (+0.5%).

U.S. home prices, as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index, are currently up 0.8% year over year. Zillow’s latest 12-month outlook (-0.1%) expects national home prices to remain near that subdued pace.

As long as national home price growth remains below U.S. wage growth(currently up 3.5%), underlying fundamentals should continue to improve as overheating from the pandemic housing boom gets smoothed out. If that trend continues—and mortgage rates don’t spike—national housing affordability should also continue to gradually improve.

While Zillow’s national home price forecast isn’t negative, it isn’t exactly bullish either. Analysts are predicting a soft national housing market in 2026, one where national housing affordability may improve slightly as U.S. income growth outpaces U.S. home price growth.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 32 Comments

More confirmation that NJ is the best

Posted on June 26, 2026 by grim

From the NY Post:

The nation’s most competitive housing market where 58% of homes sell above ask is a surprising New Jersey city

Newark, Newark — it’s a helluva town. 

Indeed, Newark — the transit-connected New Jersey city a mere 45 minutes from Midtown Manhattan — just ranked as the most competitive housing market in the nation, according to a spring market report from Redfin. For years, Newark has had a reputation for being rough — but 2025 saw violent crime fall by 19% in 2025 and the number of murders at a historic low of 31, according to reports.

In Newark, nearly three in five homes sold above ask in May — the highest share of the nation’s 50 most populous metros.

That share equals 57.6%, which narrowly beat out San Francisco, where 57.3% of homes sold above the original list price in May.

Of course, Newark’s proximity to New York City is a major driver. But buyers are duking it out for homes there — and pushing up prices as a result — amid a surge of interest in the Garden State’s Big Apple-adjacent communities.

For instance, a humble home in Maplewood — not far from Newark — sold in April for $1.18 million after listing a month earlier for $800,000.

Overall, home prices across New Jersey climbed an impressive 6% year-over-year in February, marking the sharpest statewide gain in the nation, according to data from Cotality. Newark, in that report, led all major metros in year-over-year appreciation at 6.7%.

Another factor that plays in to the price surge, according to Redfin: tight regulations make it tough to build homes in the city’s suburbs, which pushes prices up.

That said, Nassau County on Long Island — also connected to the city by rail and highways — ranked as the fourth most competitive market in the U.S., with 51.6% of homes selling for more than ask. 

New Brunswick, N.J., though farther from Manhattan but still connected by commuter rail, ranked No. 10 with 39.3% of homes selling above their asking prices.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 49 Comments

The inventory is coming, if you can wait it out

Posted on June 23, 2026 by grim

From Business Insider:

‘Simple arithmetic’ shows how US home prices are headed for a drop

The housing supply shortage that’s kept the market stuck in low gear might be on the edge of a reversal, bringing relief to buyers struggling against historically low affordability. 

The Mortgage Bankers Association says it sees the potential for home prices to fall in the medium term due to shifts in demographic trends that should add to the US’s housing supply. Meanwhile, slowing population growth and lower housing demand will even out the demand side of the equation, the association wrote in a white paper on Monday.

“We argue that the post-financial crisis narrative of a persistent housing shortage may no longer accurately describe market conditions over the decade ahead,” a team led by Michael Fratantoni, the MBA’s chief economist, wrote. “If construction remains elevated, supply growth could outpace demand growth, pushing home prices lower.”
…
Fratantoni’s team highlighted several ongoing demographic trends they believe are “weakening the foundations of housing demand.” Here were the factors they said could slow household formation through the next decade:

  • The fertility rate has been declining. The fertility rate is expected to fall to 1.56 births per woman over the next decade, according to projections from the Congressional Budget Office, down from 1.6 births per woman last year. Deaths are also now expected to surpass the number of births each year by 2030, earlier than the CBO originally anticipated, the association said.
  • The population is aging. Gen Zers are nearing the age at which most people become first-time homebuyers, but the generation is smaller than the millennial and baby boomer cohorts, according to the MBA.Younger Americans have also generally leaned away from homeownership in recent years due to affordability constraints.
  • Immigration has been falling, which has also reduced household formation in the US. Net international migration dropped to 1.3 million as of July last year, down from a peak of 2.7 million the prior year, according to the Census Bureau.
  • Boomers are expected to slowly give up their homes. The association pointed to one report that estimated the US would see an additional 250,000 housing units a year in the decade following 2025 due to baby boomers aging. 

    “Boomers will likely be adding to the housing supply as they age further, but we do not expect a ‘silver tsunami’ that would flood the market,” the MBA said, referring to more dire predictions that boomers will unleash a wave of fresh housing supply as they grow older.
Posted in Demographics, Economics, National Real Estate | 181 Comments

Get the f out of here

Posted on June 22, 2026 by grim

From the Realtors:

Tiny House in New Jersey Is Listed for the Huge Price of $500K—as Seller Attempts To Capitalize on ‘Extremely Low Inventory’

BERJAYA

A tiny house in New Jersey is making some big waves after hitting the market for the very large price of $499,000 in an apparent attempt to capitalize on the area’s extraordinarily low inventory levels—and the home’s alluring proximity to New York City.

At first glance, you could be forgiven for thinking there had been a mistake with the listing price: It seems almost ludicrous that a petite one-bedroom, one-bathroom house with a square footage so small that it isn’t even featured on the listing could fetch anywhere close to half a million dollars.

After all, the diminutive dwelling isn’t perched on a hilltop parcel in Beverly Hills, CA, or a waterfront lot in Palm Beach, FL. But as it turns out, its prime corner lot in the town of Bogota could prove just as appealing to the right kind of buyer.

Posted in Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 34 Comments

It’s on the house, baby!

Posted on June 20, 2026 by grim

From CNBC:

Homeowners tapped $47 billion in equity in the first quarter. What to consider before you borrow

Even as home price growth has slowed, the housing boom during the first half of the 2020s means many owners are sitting on substantial equity — and they appear willing to use it.

Homeowners tapped an estimated $47 billion in equity — the difference between their mortgage balance and the property’s market value — during the first three months of 2026, according to a new report from Intercontinental Exchange, a financial markets technology and data company. While down from $49 billion in the final quarter of 2025, the figure marks the highest first-quarter withdrawal figure since 2021.

Home equity lines of credit, or HELOCs, and home equity loans accounted for 54% of withdrawals in the quarter, and the remainder came from cash-out mortgage refinancing, the report shows. Nearly two-thirds of those second-lien borrowers have mortgages that were originated between 2020 and 2022, when average rates were in the 3% to 4% range.

“The housing market continues to be defined by the lock-in effect,” said Andy Walden, head of mortgage and housing market research at ICE, in the report.

“Millions of homeowners are sitting on first mortgages with rates well below current market levels, making second liens and HELOCs an attractive way to access equity without giving up those loans,” Walden said.
…
However, “home equity is not free money,” said certified financial planner Joon Um, a tax advisor with Secure Tax & Accounting in Beverly Hills, California.

“With borrowing costs still relatively high, homeowners should make sure the purpose of the loan is strong enough to justify the cost,” Um said.

In other words, the reason for tapping the equity should make sense from a financial standpoint, experts said.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 74 Comments

Spring market a bust?

Posted on June 19, 2026 by grim

From the MPA:

Spring housing market falls short as real estate agent survey flags caution

The spring housing market is underperforming, and agent sentiment in May 2026 confirms it.

Real estate technology platform The Real Brokerage Inc. released its May 2026 Agent Survey this week, showing declining optimism, more selective buyers, and a selling season that has broadly missed its early-year targets.

Real’s Agent Optimism Index fell to 61.3 in May from 64.0 in April, extending a retreat from February’s 70.3 peak. Fifty-one percent of agents reported feeling more optimistic than the prior month.

The index is a proprietary measure of agents’ 12-month forward outlook, scored on a 0–100 scale where 50 signals a neutral view.
…
Thirty-eight percent of agents said the spring selling season is tracking weaker than their expectations for 2026, including 13% who called conditions “much weaker.” Just 29% reported a stronger-than-anticipated spring, while 33% said activity was on track.

Economic headwinds are driving the gap. Nearly 79% of respondents said recent developments such as rate movements, market volatility, and geopolitical headlines, are having at least a moderate impact on clients’ decision-making.

Rising mortgage rates have eroded the spring affordability gains many buyers had counted on: the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.53% as of May 28, 2026, according to Freddie Mac‘s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, a significant climb from 6.05% in February, which had been the lowest reading since 2022.

Affordability was the top buyer challenge in May, cited by 44% of agents; economic uncertainty followed at 27%, inventory at 17%. 

Posted in Economics, National Real Estate | 67 Comments

Deals?

Posted on June 18, 2026 by grim

From Resiclub:

The 77 major housing markets with year-over-year home price declines—and the 223 posting mild gains

BERJAYA
Posted in Lowball, National Real Estate | 89 Comments

Sorry about your retirement, it’s for the kids

Posted on June 17, 2026 by grim

From Fortune:

The new problem for millennial parents in the Northeast: the million-dollar starter home

They waited out the pandemic boom. They saved longer, rented longer, delayed longer, and watched the typical first-time homebuyer age climb to a record 40. Now, the buyers who did everything right are running into a new problem: The Northeast just became the fastest-growing region for million-dollar starter homes in the country.

It’s especially imperfectly timed for millennials entering their peak household spending years and beginning to form their own families (or at least try to). 

A Zillow report published Monday counts a record 242 U.S. cities where starter homes cost $1 million or more—nearly triple the 80 cities that cleared that mark before the pandemic, and up from 226 one year ago.

The share of first-time buyers has fallen to half the historical norm. For millennial parents in the Northeast—now in their late 30s and early 40s, often with kids, hunting for more space—the numbers have a specific shape.

New Jersey had one million-dollar starter city before the pandemic. Now it has 26. New York used to have 12; now it has 41. The two states added 15 cities to the list in the past year alone—faster growth than anywhere else in the country. The New York City metro now leads all with 63 cities where a starter home runs $1 million or more.

That growth didn’t happen in a vacuum. Six of the 10 most competitive housing markets in the country are in the Northeast, per Zillow’s 2026 analysis, a region where new construction has chronically lagged and inventory deficits run deepest. California still leads the raw count with 105 cities, but the Northeast is where the crisis is actively spreading.

“A housing shortage a decade in the making ran headlong into intense demand with mortgage rates at historic lows, driving up home values at a record pace,” Zillow senior economist Kara Ng wrote. For Northeast buyers, those forces have compounded.

Posted in Economics, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate, Where's the Beef? | 66 Comments

Suck it USA, NJ is the Best

Posted on June 16, 2026 by grim

From Visual Capitalist:

The States Where Housing Prices Have Surged the Most (2021–2026)

BERJAYA
Posted in National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 41 Comments